Your favorite NFL prognosticator is back after a year off due to health issues. For the uninitiated, I pick all 272 regular-season games straight-up with no point spreads. My record is 169 wins, set in 2011, and I fell just four wins short of that mark in 2021. Let’s go!
(All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
Kansas City 31, Detroit 17 (Thursday night) — I’m still not sold on the improving Lions, and the Chiefs’ D needs Chris Jones back. Mahomes and that offense should be enough for the league’s best team since the New England dynasty.
Baltimore 38, Houston 13 — I am optimistic about the new-look Ravens offense under new coordinator Todd Monken. Defensively, only three rookie quarterbacks have ever won in Baltimore in the Ravens’ history, and despite the promise he has shown, CJ Stroud won’t be the fourth.
San Francisco 27, Pittsburgh 24 — This should be one of the week’s most entertaining openers, but despite the usual pattern of West Coast teams losing on Eastern trips, the ‘Niners should win this entertaining game.
Cincinnati 23, Cleveland 10 — A hard-fought “Battle Of Ohio” game is right out of the gate. But even with home field and a roster loaded with talent, the Browns always find a way to implode, and Joe Burrow should take advantage of that.
Carolina 27, Atlanta 20 — The NFC South is one of the league’s most challenging divisions to predict, and the season starts with a game that’s also hard to figure. I picked the Panthers to win the division, so I see them getting a road win here.
Jacksonville 40, Indianapolis 23 — This game won’t be as close as my score indicates. The Colts have the look and feel of a last-place team, so their fans will have to drive home more blue than their team’s uniforms.
Minnesota 20, Tampa Bay 6 — Like the Colts, Tampa Bay is another former contender destined for a cellar-dwelling finish. The Vikings open at home with what should be a crowd-pleasing effort.
New Orleans 30, Tennessee 27 — Two teams that don’t see each other often square off under the Superdome roof. At times last year, the Saints were deceptively good on offense, even without Drew Brees. This time, they get an opponent at which they can show that tendency again.
Arizona 13, Washington 9 — I’m picking another west-to-east win for a road team. The Commanders’ fortunes should be boosted due to their long-anticipated ownership change, but they also need some new players, too. Quarterback Sam Howell has the keys to the car, and the engine should sputter at first.
Philadelphia 26, New England 16 — I see the Eagles taking a step back this year against a tougher schedule with better quarterbacks they won’t be able to sack nearly as often. This road game, however, is a soft spot in that schedule.
Miami 30, Los Angeles Chargers 20 — I forsee another frustrating season for Charger fans (what few there are). They’ll have some good moments but will disappear in crunch time.
Denver 24, Las Vegas 13 — It’ll take some time for the new Sean Payton-Russell Wilson collaboration to take flight. They are thanking the schedule gods that they open at home against the usually bottom-feeding Raiders.
Chicago 26, Green Bay 23 — It’s time for another momentum shift in the league’s oldest and best archrivalry. Chicago had one of the best offseasons in the league, and it should show some marked improvement this year. Jordan Love might eventually be a good Packer quarterback, but for lightning to strike a third time (after Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers) is asking a bit much.
Seattle 31, Los Angeles Rams 27 — The Seahawks are my surprise pick to represent the wide-open NFC in the Super Bowl (read my complete set of picks here). They begin with a home division win over the recent champs, who still pay the price for going all-in to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Dallas 37, New York Giants 17 (Sunday night) — The Cowboys have quietly put together a good offseason, adding the likes of Stephon Gillmore and Brandin Cooks while bringing back a stout offensive line and pass-rush ace Micah Parsons. A name to watch is seventh-round rookie scatback Deuce Vaughn. Meanwhile, ‘Big Blue’ should describe the Giants’ emotional state this entire season.
Buffalo 20, New York Jets 13 (Monday night) — There has been talk that the Bills’ Super Bowl window is closing. I can’t entirely agree with that, but they face a tougher bunch of AFC East opponents this year. The Jets should be improved with Rodgers, but the early schedule is tough, and this game is a prime (time) example.
