Last season, I picked six of eight division winners and also nailed the Super Bowl winner.
It’s time to cast my lot once again, foreseeing how the NFL regular season and postseason will play out. Here’s what I believe is in store for NFL 2023.
American Conference
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore (12-5) — New offense, healthy QB, more targets will help
2. Cincinnati (11-6) — O-line still not stout, secondary always a problem
3. Pittsburgh (9-8) — I’ll never again pick Tomlin to be below .500
4. Cleveland (5-12) — Always finding a way to implode despite talent
AFC EAST
1. Buffalo (13-4) — Super Bowl window still open
2. NY Jets (10-7) — Rodgers, solid D should be enough
3. Miami (10-7) — Tougher division could leave Dolphins out in January
4. New England (7-10) — Dynasties often fall, and they fall hard
AFC SOUTH
1. Jacksonville (11-6) — Lawrence came along at just the right time
2. Houston (8-9) — Benefitting from the fall of Titans, Colts
3. Tennessee (7-10) — Always have big names, but not a complete team
4. Indianapolis (4-13) — Promising rookie QB, but not much else
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City (14-3) — Still the best … period
2. Denver (8-9) — Despite Wilson’s slump, Payton makes him better
3. LA Chargers (7-10) — Not enough heart, fight or special teams
4. Las Vegas (4-13) — They’ll be good Super Bowl hosts
PLAYOFF SEEDS: 1. Kansas City 2. Baltimore 3. Buffalo 4. Jacksonville 5. Cincinnati 6. NY Jets 7. Miami
WILD-CARD ROUND: Baltimore over Miami; Buffalo over NY Jets; Jacksonville over Cincinnati
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Kansas City over Jacksonville; Baltimore over Buffalo
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Kansas City over Baltimore
National Conference
NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota (12-5) — Won’t win all the close games again, but they’re the best here
2. Detroit (10-7) — Still not sold on them, but they’re improving
3. Chicago (9-8) — Poised for a rapid rise
4. Green Bay (6-11) — Inevitable fall with Rodgers gone and rusty Love at QB
NFC EAST
1. Dallas (13-4) — Defense still potent; Cooks boosts WR room
2. Philadelphia (11-6) — This division doesn’t have repeat winners; schedule tougher
3. Washington (7-10) — Ownership change is worth two wins
4. NY Giants (5-12) — Barkley’s mess and OL problems slow them down
NFC SOUTH
1. Carolina (10-7) — Good rookie QB gives an edge in a bad division
2. Atlanta (7-10) — Deceptively high finish, but a lot of holes
3. New Orleans (6-11) — Still adjusting to life without Brees, Payton
4. Tampa Bay (4-13) — Brady’s gone; bloom is off the rose
NFC WEST
1. Seattle (12-5) — Surprising Geno Smith is making things happen
2. San Francisco (12-5) — Questionable QB room and an underachieving coach
3. LA Rams (5-12) — Went all-in to win the Super Bowl; still paying for it
4. Arizona (3-14) — On the clock already
PLAYOFF SEEDS: 1. Dallas 2. Seattle 3. Minnesota 4. Carolina 5. San Francisco 6. Philadelphia 7. Detroit
WILD-CARD ROUND: Seattle over Detroit; Philadelphia over Minnesota; San Francisco over Carolina
DIVISIONAL ROUND: Dallas over Philadelphia; Seattle over San Francisco
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Seattle over Dallas
SUPER BOWL 58
February 11, 2024, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas (CBS)
Teams can change a lot in a salary-cap-oriented NFL offseason. That said, the league’s reigning dynasty, the Kansas City Chiefs, didn’t add or subtract anyone of note to sufficiently change anyone’s perspective. They remain the league’s best team with the league’s best quarterback. The inferior NFC is more of a crapshoot, and I’m casting my vote for a dark horse, the Seattle Seahawks. One reason is that teams like San Francisco and Dallas constantly underachieve. I also predict that Philadelphia will take a major backward step this year. Seattle’s Pete Carroll is the league’s oldest and most underrated coach. He will steer the ship to Las Vegas, but the ‘Hawks won’t have enough to finish the project.
Kansas City 31, Seattle 16
