NFL.com lists the Raiders as “in the hunt” with a 13% playoff probability. But, really, the designation offers little in the face of the growing reality that this team won’t make the playoffs, again.
Although finishing the season strong would be encouraging, it should not distract the Raiders from fixing the problems this past month has exposed. Being in the hunt is not the same as being ready to contend.
Sunday’s 38-17 loss at Levi’s Stadium to the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers was a big dose of reality. The 49ers are miles ahead of the Raiders, gaining 414 yards on 69 plays. It was a mismatch all day, and the final score reflected that reality.
The Raiders are 4-5, with Seattle coming to town next and a trip to Denver after that. More favorable games follow, but falling to 4-7 would leave them with little margin for error. If that happens, it will be “wait until next year,” and that finality may already be here.
Last month, Las Vegas needed to beat either the New England Patriots or the Los Angeles Rams to stay in the hunt. But they didn’t win either game. That means we fans have to settle for “the culture is better,” even though we know this franchise has a lot of work to do to become a legit playoff contender. The game vs. the 49ers was a stark reminder. The defense kept getting burned by receivers, while Christian McCaffrey ran with little resistance. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan kept putting the burden on a Raiders defense that had no consistent answer for McCaffrey or the passing game.
The Raiders need help in the trenches on both sides of the ball, better cornerback coverage, and more run resistance. Revamping the defense could make next season another work in progress. They should also evaluate whether Rob Leonard is the right DC for this group.
That evaluation requires something more than finding people to blame. Management must determine whether the problems come from personnel, coaching, or game strategy. Likely, it’s a blend of the three. Changing the coordinator will mean little if the next one inherits the same weaknesses without meaningful reinforcements. The defensive struggles put pressure on the offense to keep pace, and the Raiders couldn’t do that in the second half vs. San Francisco.
Now the Raiders face a decision: How aggressively should they pursue draft picks before Tuesday’s trade deadline? Sunday’s performance reinforced their need for more talent. They should be willing to listen if good offers come.
The quarterback-desperate Vikings are the team I would call first. If they believe Kirk Cousins can improve their playoff chances, the Raiders should find out what that belief is worth in draft picks. If the Vikings offered second- and third-round picks for Cousins, the Raiders should take that deal. The question is whether Minnesota would pay that price.
The Raiders should listen to offers for Maxx Crosby, but moving him should require a return that meaningfully strengthens their rebuild. Listening is not the same as selling at any price. The goal should be to improve the team’s future, not simply announce a change in direction. Any deal must make sense on its own merits, especially when it involves a player management could otherwise keep.
Prioritizing this playoff chase over long-term improvement ignores the bigger picture. This year was not supposed to be a playoff season. Their 3-0 start raised expectations, but it did not erase the weaknesses in a team still building its foundation.
The remaining games still matter. Players can show who deserves a place in that foundation, and coaches can demonstrate whether their adjustments produce progress. That matters even if the playoff picture becomes less inviting.
The front office should judge that progress honestly rather than use a respectable finish to excuse another offseason of leaving obvious needs unresolved.
