Get situated, stock up on your favorite refreshments, put your phone on Do Not Disturb, and enjoy the Saturday of Carnage.
Last weekend was pretty much a layup in college football. The outcomes were on par, except for Oklahoma State losing at the end. Ohio State, with a freshman quarterback, really had no shot at beating USC. The real surprise was North Carolina taking Miami to the cusp of being upset.
This week, the stakes couldn’t be higher for playoff contenders. Twelve games will decide who has a strong shot at the playoffs and who will be on the outside looking in. Three Big 12 contests, three Big 10 matches, five SEC battles, and an old classic of Miami vs. Notre Dame.
All I see is carnage.
Let’s start with the Big 12. To start, let’s look at the league’s “Holy War,” BYU vs. Utah. The schedulers didn’t do us any favors by setting a 10:00 a.m. local kickoff. This game is for first place and could be a prequel to the Big 12 championship.
After the big win against Notre Dame, BYU has to win this game to make up for the slip-up against UCF. Utah is coming off the beating of Cincinnati after they beat Texas Tech. I think this will be a slugfest, with Utah pulling it out at the end.
Next is Cincinnati at Houston. Both teams put up points. Houston needs this win to stay within striking distance to have a chance to play in the Big 12 championship. I expect a high-scoring affair, with the home team pulling out the win.
The other important game is West Virginia vs. Texas Tech. West Virginia plays tough and with heart, and I’d pick them if they were at home. Texas Tech can’t win outside of Texas, but at home they are nearly impossible to beat. Texas Tech needs this, like Houston, to have a chance to play in the Big 12 championship game. I’m going to have to take Tech by ten in this one.
Next up is the Big 10. The biggest matchup is Iowa vs. Northwestern. Both are 6-2, and they both play a similar style of ball control and stout defense. Whoever wins has a shot at the Big 10 championship, and whoever loses is out. Everything inside me says take Northwestern; they are at home, but the gambler in me says Iowa by 3, and Northwestern is out.
Graphic courtesy of Elite College Football on Instagram
Before the season started, I circled the winner of the Oregon vs. Ohio State game to take the Big 10 regular-season crown. Now it’s a lackluster game because Oregon’s season is in the tank, and Ohio State has a freshman quarterback. Ohio State should pull out the victory. If they win this game, I see the Buckeyes making the playoffs, because I don’t see them dropping their last three games or losing to UCLA in the Big 10 championship game.
The sneaky game is UCLA vs. Minnesota. It’s 9:00 a.m. kickoff time for the Bruins if they were in California. If UCLA gets off to a slow start and has to play from behind, give me the Gophers. Still, I think that UCLA will pull it out a fourth-quarter win to stay unbeaten.
The SEC: the real carnage begins, starting with Texas at MU. Texas is a first-half squad. Manning loves to turn the ball over again in the second half. If MU can run the ball and play bend-not-break defense, look for the Tigers to drive the point home for the Longhorns and knock them out of the playoffs. Texas doesn’t scare anyone.
Next, I’m hoping Kentucky at Tennessee will be a good game. Will Stein has his team believing and playing tough. I saw what Tennessee did to Alabama, and it was an ugly beatdown. Rocky Top is a tough place to pull off a road win, and I think Tennessee will win big.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss should be a shootout. Last year, Georgia stopped Mississippi’s offense on the final drive to pull out the win, and the same scenario should play out again this year. Give me the Bulldogs to stay on top of the SEC after this game.
Next is the battle in the Bayou—Alabama vs. LSU. I’m going to be rooting loud for my Tide. LSU’s defense is top-notch, and that’s bad news for the Tide because Alabama’s run game has fallen off a cliff. Besides, Alabama’s defense has been too inconsistent this year. I don’t trust DeBoer and his staff to win big games, and a loss here should knock the Tide out of the playoff race and solidify that DeBoer is a consistent 9-3 coach.
The game off the radar is Texas A&M at South Carolina. If Kentucky loses and Ole Miss pulls off the upset by beating Georgia, South Carolina could be one win away from first in the SEC. Not bad considering three games ago people were calling for Beamer to be fired.
College football history with Holtz (L) and Johnson in 1988 (photo courtesy Wall Street Journal)
The nightcap is the heavyweight bout—Miami at Notre Dame. Remember the Catholics vs. the Convicts game in 1988. Lou Holtz’s #4 Irish taking on Jimmy Johnson #1 Canes. It never gets any better than that! Notre Dame pulled off the upset, winning 31-30 and knocking off the national champions. I’m expecting the same kind of game here, just without the flair. Florida State and North Carolina exposed Miami’s defense.
Notre Dame knows they are likely out of the playoffs if it loses this game. The outcome will hinge on whether Notre Dame can contain Toney and whether Miami can handle the Irish’s upfront physicality without biting on their play-action game. Can Miami get their revenge, 38 years later? Notre Dame might have swept the Eternal Tip-Off in Rome Sunday, but give me the Canes by 10 Saturday night.
Now it’s your turn. Enjoy or cringe, depending on which teams you root for.
