Too much is happening in Power 4 football to keep assuming the game is what we think it is. Here’s why.
After last weekend’s chaos football weekend, I’ve been hearing the term “parity” a lot from the media and so-called experts. Suddenly, it’s a parity league. But when we compare the preseason football poll to this week’s poll, seven teams ranked in the preseason poll aren’t ranked halfway through the season, including three of the presumed top ten teams.
Media rank their favorites based on the previous year’s outcomes, and that happens every season. So why not rank teams until the halfway point of the season?
We need to get another matter straight. NIL was supposed to be a separation-maker, dividing major college football into financial haves and have-nots. That it has done. Last year, the highest-paid rosters made the CFP Final Four. But many of those teams also had rosters of 5th- to 6th-year seniors. That means it’s not just about the highest-paid rosters. A case in point is Indiana.
There’s more. Here are the top ten NIL teams–Oregon, Texas, Ohio State, L.S.U., Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Miami, Alabama, and Texas Tech, and neither UO nor A&M is ranked. Texas, LSU, and ‘Bama are now long shots to make the CFPs; LSU and Alabama have a long shot at making the playoff, if at all. It’s also dicey for these teams. Ohio State lost its starting quarterback and is at risk of taking one or more losses; if Notre Dame loses to Miami after getting knocked off at BYU, the Irish will most likely be out of the playoffs; Texas Tech has challenging Big 12 games remaining.
And let’s not forget Michigan, a team that benched their five-million-dollar quarterback.
Graphic courtesy Sports Illustrated
Before the NIL Era, teams built rosters with depth. The starters were the studs, but the second-string players weren’t that far off, so if a starter got injured, there wouldn’t be much of a drop-off. Now, if a starter gets injured or is suspended, coaches hold their breath and pray the second-string player can do the job.
Saban’s teams never missed a beat when a starter went down. His second-stringers started on pretty much every team. Whoever played that Saturday got pounded like they were in a fifteen-round heavyweight bout. Saban coached every detail to perfection and prepared for each game the same way. That type of coaching is rare these days.
Let’s look at the new coaching hires. The SEC hired new coaches at Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Arkansas. Kentucky is 6-1, Florida is 5-2, and Auburn is 4-2. LSU is 5-2, and Ole Miss is 5-1. LSU might not make the playoffs. Kentucky, Florida, and Auburn probably won’t make the playoffs, but they also don’t have a $45-50 million roster.
Photo courtesy of Vanity Fair
Kentucky has already beaten LSU, and Oklahoma State and Utah have new coaches and rosters and are nowhere near a $45-50 million roster. Yet Utah is undefeated, and Oklahoma State is 4-2. Utah has a strong chance to make the playoffs.
These new coaches, excluding Kiffin, have taken no-name rosters and gotten their players to buy in, believe, and be competitive week in and week out. That’s real coaching. And if they can recruit and build on their rosters for next season, look out.
So, is it parity, NIL, lack of depth, bad coaching? In my opinion, NIL has created a lack of depth, and there has been a lot of bad coaching. A team is only as good as the next man up. Does this mean there is parity in Power 4 football?
I don’t think so.
