At the start of last season, I wrote a column identifying four college football head coaches on the hot seat. Three of those four coaches didn’t survive the season. Here are my picks for 2026.
SHANE BEAMER — SOUTH CAROLINA
Coaching is in Shane Beamer’s blood. His father, Frank Beamer, coached the Virginia Tech Hokies from 1987 through 2015 and built the program into a national power. So, when Shane Beamer took over at South Carolina, expectations were high.
During his first two seasons, Beamer delivered back-to-back winning records. The Gamecocks went 7-6 in 2021 and 8-5 in 2022. Then came 2023, when South Carolina slipped to 5-7.
The look says it all. (photo courtesy The State)
But the Gamecocks bounced back in a big way in 2024, finishing 9-4. Beamer’s work that season earned him USA Today and AP SEC Coach of the Year honors. Suddenly, many people were talking about Beamer as the coach who had put South Carolina football back on the map. Then everything fell apart. The Gamecocks finished 4-8 in 2025.
Now Beamer enters his sixth season in Columbia with his job potentially on the line. He has already demonstrated what South Carolina can accomplish under his leadership. The question is whether he can get the program back to that level after last year’s collapse.
Unfortunately for Beamer, the schedule isn’t doing him any favors. The Gamecocks travel to Alabama on September 26. Then, beginning October 10, they face a brutal four-game stretch: Florida in The Swamp, Tennessee at home, Oklahoma on the road in Norman, and Texas A&M at home.
And it doesn’t get much easier. South Carolina finishes the regular season by hosting Georgia before traveling to Clemson. Absolutely brutal.
If Beamer wants to remain South Carolina’s head coach beyond 2026, the Gamecocks are probably going to have to pull off multiple upsets.
DAVE ARANDA — BAYLOR
Dave Aranda enters his seventh season as the head coach of the Baylor Bears with a 36-37 record over his first six seasons.
His first season was the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, when Baylor went 2-7. Then came 2021. Baylor went 12-2, won the Big 12 Championship and defeated Ole Miss 21-7 in the Sugar Bowl. What a turnaround!
Since then, however, it has been almost entirely downhill. Baylor has produced only one winning season since that championship campaign. The Bears have not won another bowl game and have not returned to the top of the Big 12.
Patience is wearing thin among Baylor fans, and Aranda’s time in Waco could be running out. This has to be a winning season. Going from a conference championship and Sugar Bowl victory to only one winning season over the next four years represents a stunning collapse for a program that believed it had found its coach.
The Baylor schedule isn’t overwhelming, but several games could determine his future. The season opener against Auburn at a neutral site in Atlanta will be a significant challenge. Baylor also travels to Arizona State on October 3, hosts rival TCU on October 17, travels to BYU on November 14, and hosts Texas Tech on November 21.
Those games could tell us a great deal about whether Aranda will still be Baylor’s coach in 2027.
LUKE FICKELL — WISCONSIN
Luke Fickell took over as Wisconsin’s head coach in 2022 with enormous expectations. Before arriving in Madison, Fickell spent six seasons at Cincinnati, where he compiled a 57-18 record and won two American Athletic Conference championships.
His arrival at Wisconsin was supposed to signal the beginning of a new era. But that hasn’t happened.
His first official game came in the Badgers’ bowl matchup against Oklahoma State. Wisconsin won, but Fickell later acknowledged that interim head coach Jim Leonhard handled most of the coaching responsibilities and that Fickell was essentially a “figurehead” for that game.
Mystifying in Badgerland: A coach with a previously winning record takes over a program with a winning tradition. What happened? (photo, KARE 11)
Things haven’t gotten much better since. In 2023, Fickell led Wisconsin to a 7-6 record. Not great, but at least a winning season. Then came 2024. The Badgers fell to 5-7. Last season, things got even worse. Wisconsin finished 4-8. Now Fickell enters 2026 under enormous pressure from fans and critics who are wondering whether he is the right person to lead Wisconsin.
The good news is that the schedule appears manageable.
The bad news? He must win the games he is supposed to win.
Wisconsin’s biggest challenges include Notre Dame at Lambeau Field on September 6, a road game against Penn State on September 26, and a home matchup with USC on October 24. Outside of those games, the schedule is manageable enough that there shouldn’t be many excuses.
No trap games. No inexplicable losses. No more regression. Fickell needs to get Wisconsin back to winning football in 2026. Otherwise, his tenure in Madison could be coming to an end.
MIKE NORVELL — FLORIDA STATE
This one should surprise absolutely no one. Mike Norvell was the lone coach on my hot-seat list last season who kept his job. Now he’s back at No. 1.
Norvell enters his seventh season in charge of Florida State. During his first six seasons, he has produced only two winning records. But those two seasons were impressive. Florida State went 10-3 in 2022 before Norvell led the Seminoles to a remarkable 13-1 season and an ACC championship in 2023. The Seminoles also put together a 19-game winning streak spanning those two seasons before Georgia dismantled them in the Orange Bowl.
Since then, everything has fallen apart. Florida State went from 13-1 in 2023 to 2-10 in 2024, one of the most dramatic collapses in college football history and the worst season in Florida State football history. Last season began with renewed optimism. The Seminoles defeated Alabama in the opener and jumped to a 3-0 start. Then the wheels came off. Florida State finished 5-7.
I still stand by what I wrote in my previous column: Norvell deserved one more season to get things right. But this is it. If there is one coach entering 2026 in a true do-or-die situation, it is Mike Norvell. But the odds aren’t exactly in Norvell’s favor.
The fans are frustrated. The critics are relentless. And the schedule is brutal.
According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, Florida State faces the toughest schedule among ACC teams and one of the 25 most difficult schedules in the country. Several experts believe Miami, Clemson, Louisville, SMU, and Virginia are among the top teams in the ACC this season, and FSU plays all five during the first eight games of the season.
That’s not all. During that same stretch, the Seminoles travel to Alabama, where the Crimson Tide will undoubtedly be looking for revenge after last year’s loss. Then comes the final four games: a road trip to Boston College, where Florida State has historically struggled; a trip to Pitt; and home games against NC State and Florida.
That’s a nasty schedule for a team entering the season with very little momentum, and that’s why the question surrounding Norvell isn’t necessarily whether he will be fired; it’s when.
