Here are my picks as the Stanley Cup playoffs get underway.
Western Conference
Round One
COLORADO AVALANCHE VS LOS ANGELES KINGS: The Avalanche won the Presidents’ Trophy this season. They proved time and again during the regular season that they are an elite team. Also, looking at the metrics provided by the NHL when I made my bracket, the Avalanche dominated the metrics over the Kings; they had better percentages in goals per game, power play, and penalty kills. However, I believe that the Kings are scrappy enough to get at least one win in the series, but I think the Avalanche is just too much for them. My Pick: Avalanche in five
DALLAS STARS VS MINNESOTA WILD: These are both really good teams, and I’m very excited about this series. By the numbers, it would appear Dallas has a very slight edge over Minnesota, with the biggest difference in power-play percentage: Dallas at 28.6% vs 25.2%. It’s a tight match-up all around, but I feel like Dallas has a slight edge, and they also have home ice advantage here, and those Stars’ fans are gonna bring the energy. So I like Dallas here. My Pick: Stars in six
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS UTAH MAMMOTH: The newest team in the NHL makes its Stanley Cup playoff debut, and it’s gonna be a close series. The NHL’s metrics have these teams tied in goals per game and goals against per game. However, the Golden Knights do have a lead in both power-play and penalty-kill percentages. Another advantage for Vegas is home ice advantage. It’s going to be a very close series, but I like Vegas in this one. My Pick: Golden Knights in six
EDMONTON OILERS VS ANAHEIM DUCKS: The metrics are close for the most part for this matchup, but there are a few things I think give the Oilers a massive advantage. First, their advantage in power-play percentage is pretty significant, leading the Ducks at 30.6% vs. 18.6%. Second, there is the home ice advantage for the Oilers. The Oilers are looking to win their third straight conference title, and the fans are going to be very loud and proud at Rogers Place. And finally, Conor McDavid. He’s one of the best players in the league and has 138 points this season, vs the Ducks’ leading scorer, Cutter Gauthier, who only has 69 points. My pick: Oilers in five.
Round Two
COLORADO AVALANCHE VS DALLAS STARS: The metrics are close here. If my prediction holds up, this may be the most entertaining series of the playoffs. The Stars have a massive power-play percentage advantage here, at 28.6% vs. the Avalanche’s 17.1%. But Colorado has the advantage in both penalty kills and goals per game. Also, Colorado’s leading scorer, Nathan MacKinnon, has 127 points this season, compared with the Stars’ leading scorer, Jason Robertson, who has only 96 points. I think the series goes to game seven, and I think Colorado gets the job done. My Pick: Avalanche in seven
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS VS EDMONTON OILERS: The Oilers dominate the metrics here, having the advantage in goals per game, goals against per game, and power play percentage. The Golden Knights do have a slight lead in penalty kill percentage, but I don’t think that’s enough to stop the Oilers. The numbers don’t lie, and again, we have a massive difference between the team’s leading scorers. Conor McDavid for the Oilers has 138 points this season, while Jack Eichel for Vegas has only 90. My pick: Oilers in five.
Final
COLORADO AVLANCHE VS EDMONTON OILERS: This would be a great match-up between two of the best teams in hockey right now. To get into it, the Oilers have a massive advantage in power-play percentage, at 30.6%, compared to the Avalanche’s 17.1%. But the flip side of that is the penalty kill percentage, which Colorado has the advantage on at 84.6% vs 77.8%. So, that’ll be fun to watch: the Oilers’ power-play ability vs. the Avalanche’s penalty kill. Also, the matchup between MacKinnon and McDavid is very exciting as well. In the end, though, I think the Oilers win their third straight conference title here.
Western Conference Champions: EDMONTON OILERS
Eastern Conference
Round One
BUFFALO SABRES VS BOSTON BRUINS: Buffalo honestly appears to be the better team based on metrics, but I have a feeling about Boston. I know Buffalo is like the Cinderella team this year, but the clock will strike midnight rather early this time. Nothing to really back it up, just a gut feeling I can’t shake. My pick: Bruins in six
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS MONTREAL CANADIENS: These two are pretty tight on the metrics, being tied in goals per game and being very close in both power play and penalty kill percentage. I think the leading scorer for each team will be the difference maker here. Nikita Kucherov for Tampa Bay has 130 points this season, vs. Nick Suzuki for Montreal, who has only 101 points. My pick: Lightning in seven
CAROLINA HURRICANES VS OTTAWA SENATORS: The metrics are close across the board here, but the Hurricanes lead every category except goals against per game. And just based on what we’ve seen this season, I feel the Hurricanes are the better team. The Senators are a tough and gritty team. I remember being shocked when they put eight points up on the Rangers at MSG earlier in the season, but that was then; this is now. My pick: Hurricanes in six
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS VS PHILADELPHIA FLYERS: We got an in-state rivalry in the first round! However, the Penguins have an advantage in every metric the NHL provides. Rivalry games bring out the best, so I don’t think it’ll be a sweep, but it’ll be close. My pick: Penguins in five
Round Two
BOSTON BRUINS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING: This was a tough one to pick a winner for. What made the difference for me was Tampa Bay having the advantage in goals per game and Kucherov with his 130 points, vs. David Pastrnak of Boston with only 100 points. My pick: Lightning in six
CAROLINA HURRICANES VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Very close in the metrics again with this series. The Penguins do have a better penalty kill percentage, and they have Sidney Crosby, who is always a difference-maker. The stats kind of favor Carolina, but I have a feeling about Pittsburgh. My pick: Penguins in seven.
Final
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: Pittsburgh dominates all the metrics, except penalty kill percentage, but the difference is very small at 82.6% for Tampa Bay vs 81.4% for Pittsburgh. Kucherov does have significantly more goals than Sidney Crosby for Pittsburgh at 130 points vs 74 points on the season, but all things considered, I think the Penguins will be too much for the Lightning to overcome here. Eastern Conference Champions: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Stanley Cup Final
EDMONTON OILERS VS PITTSBURGH PENGUINS: This would be a close and fun series to watch. Going through the metrics for the final match-up. Pittsburgh has the goals-per-game advantage at 3.60 vs. 3.50. The Oilers have the goals-against-per-game advantage at 3.30 vs 3.20. The Oilers also have a massive power-play percentage of 30.6% vs. 24.1%. However, the Penguins have the Penalty kill advantage of 81.4% vs 77.8%. And there is also a lot of motivation on both sides of this perspective matchup. Sidney Crosby wants another cup, and Conor McDavid and the Oilers would be in their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final, and having lost the first two, they’ll want to rewrite history. They don’t want to be remembered as the Buffalo Bills of the NHL. If this matchup comes to pass, it’ll be tight. It’ll be competitive. But I believe the Oilers will finally pull it off and finish their story after three long years of being so close, yet so far.
Stanley Cup Champs: EDMONTON OILERS
