My Week 18 performance (12-4, 75%) raised the cumulative season tally to 171-101 (63%). That’s my all-time best win total, exceeding by two wins my previous best notched in 2011. Now I roll back the counter to zero and pick all 13 games leading up to and including Super Bowl 58.
It starts with the most games (six) to be played during the NFL postseason.
NOTE: All times Eastern.
Saturday
AFC (4) Houston 31, (5) Cleveland 19 (4:30p, NBC) – When you consider that the ultra-lucky Browns used FIVE starting quarterbacks this year (that’s not a typo) and that their defense was horrible on the road despite all the puzzling praise it gets, it’s a miracle Cleveland is even in the playoffs. It’s only the team’s third postseason appearance since 1999 when it came back into the league as an expansion team.
Many fans and media will point to the January 2013 playoff run enjoyed by Joe Flacco when he led Baltimore to the Super Bowl 47 title. That was 11 years ago. But, to be fair, Flacco played well down the stretch this year, going 4-1 with 13 touchdown passes. But he also threw eight interceptions, and that matter bears watching.
AFC (3) Kansas City 26, (6) Miami 23 (8p, Peacock) – This definitely won’t be a repeat of the 1971 playoff matchup between these two. The Christmas Day classic went into double overtime in the longest game ever played. The result in 1971 won’t be replicated this Saturday because the current version of the Aqua is pulling their usual late-season fade against good teams. That includes squeaking by Dallas, blowing a home lead against Buffalo, and getting boat-raced at Baltimore. Miami is all flash, dash, and sizzle, and that combo doesn’t work this time of year. Add a few crucial injuries and the Chiefs’ playoff experience, and I’ll take the defending champs every time. PICK: CHIEFS
Sunday
(Editor’s Note: Buffalo-Pittsburgh rescheduled for Monday 4:30p)
AFC (2) Buffalo 19, (7) Pittsburgh 13 (1p, CBS) – If you’re into characters from classic literature, the Steelers are the Rasputin of the NFL. Why? They refuse to die. So, with a win here, the Steelers will return to Baltimore as the lowest AFC survivor of the weekend. Will that happen? For starters, even though the game is being played on the shores of Lake Erie, you can’t use the cold-weather-team-in-January angle because both teams know how to cope with adverse conditions (forecast, plenty of wind with temps in the high teens). Plus, Pittsburgh won at Buffalo in a season opener two years ago, so they have a comfort level there. Ok. So what about Buffalo?
The Bills are doing what a team must do in the parity-ridden NFL: they are getting hot at the right time, including figuring out how to call and execute an NFL-level offense. (Why did it take so long?)
NFC 2) Dallas 38, (7) Green Bay 22 (4:30p, Fox) – These classic franchises have met eight times in the playoffs, and each team has won four times. What’s the difference this time around? Dallas is not very good on the road (4-5 this season), but the ‘Boys have won 16 straight regular-season games at home (8-0 this year). Now, they get to play host to the NFL’s youngest team–a squad that has shown plenty of grit and resourcefulness despite a still-growing quarterback and a defense that has been sieve-like at times. That’s not a good formula going into JerryWorld. And while I have faith that one day Jordan Love might make a big play to eliminate the Cowboys (just like Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre did before him), it won’t happen this time. Dallas was given this late-afternoon Sunday home game for maximum exposure, but I don’t think it will give the audience a lot of drama. PICK: COWBOYS
NFC (6) Los Angeles Rams 27, (3) Detroit 24 (8p, NBC) – It’s a pro sports truism: the best trades help both teams. That’s how I feel about the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade, which is among the best trades in NFL history. The Rams have already capitalized on that trade by winning a Super Bowl with Stafford, so is it the Lions’ time to shine in the sun?
The good news for the long-suffering Detroit faithful is that they’ll be able to see their team play at home. But what about the teams? The Rams had more consistency down the stretch because playoff prospects were in peril unless they kept winning. Meanwhile, although the Lions cruised to the NFC North title, they stumbled against Minnesota and Chicago.
Monday
NFC (4) Tampa Bay 23, (5) Philadelphia 20 (8p, ESPN/ABC) – Lately, these two have been running played multiple times against in January, and the more in-form (hotter) team has won each time. The fact that the Buccaneers have won four straight NFC South Division crowns may not mean as much as it should because it’s a toss-up between the NFC South and AFC East for the title of the NFL’s weakest division. Still, something must be said about consistency, and Tampa Bay has been consistent. The Eagles have been consistent, too–consistently BAD down the stretch. After starting 10-1, the team went 1-5, losing last weekend to the Giants. Yes, THE GIANTS! So, I will go against one of my longstanding rules–to avoid picking a team from the inferior division–and go with the Bucs because the Eagles are limping on two bad wings right now. PICK: BUCS
