I finished Wild Card Weekend with four out of six wins (67%), losing on the Rams and Cowboys. The Rams played well, and the Cowboys didn’t, but on-field performance doesn’t matter in my business. You either get picks right or wrong. Now we move to the all-important Divisional Round, with the winners going on to compete for conference championships. Here’s how I see the four games shaping up.
Saturday
(1) Baltimore 30, (4) Houston 20 (4:30p, ESPN/ABC) – In 2011, these two teams met at M&T Bank Stadium in the same playoff round in a game that drew the most people ever to see a game there. That’s impossible now due to stadium renovations, but it should draw the same level of interest from both fan bases. The Texans, now in their 22nd season, have never been to the AFC Championship Game, while the Ravens, in their 28th year, have been to four, but none at home.
A Ravens win in this game would bring the AFC title tilt to Baltimore for the first time since 1970, the first-ever conference championship game after the merger.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh noticed how good Houston was back in Week One, when his team beat the Texans, 25-9: “That’s a good, young football team that’s going to win a lot of games,” he said at the time. As usual, he was right, and they ended up winning the AFC South and exposing the Browns last week. But the Ravens aren’t the Browns. They have more experience on both sides of the ball, a more dynamic quarterback, and are (arguably) the NFL’s most complete team. Houston will have its day one of these days, but this day won’t be one of them.
PICK: RAVENS
(1) San Francisco 41, (7) Green Bay 17 (8p, Fox) – What Green Bay did last week at Dallas was remarkable. The league’s youngest team went on the road, boldly chose to receive the opening kickoff, and seized momentum from the game’s onset. But lightning doesn’t strike twice very often.
The 49ers are more physical, more resilient, and better overall than the Cowboys, and their rested roster should have little to no trouble teaching Jordan Love and his band of brothers what NFL postseason life is about.
If anybody on the ‘Niners’ side needs to prove himself, it might be head coach Kyle Shanahan, who has yet to win a ring as either an NFL assistant or head coach. Yes, I know … if the Packers go in as fearlessly as they did in Dallas and build a head of steam, they could make life almost as difficult for San Francisco as they did for Dallas. But I find it hard to believe that will happen.
PICK: 49ERS
Sunday
(3) Detroit 26, (4) Tampa Bay 20 (3p, NBC) – Detroit’s Ford Field is the epicenter of a loud, starving fan base that hasn’t tasted success since Greasers and Bobbysoxers roamed the landscape. Translated … Detroit hasn’t won a championship since 1957, nine years before the Super Bowl was born, and it has had just two playoff wins since then. The good news for those loud, starving fans is that one of those wins came just a few days ago. It happened because these Lions have a dynamic, balanced offense and a bend-but-don’t-break defense.
After many tries, the Lions have finally rebuilt themselves the right way, with a head coach to whom players can relate and a solid quarterback working behind a sound line.
Baker Mayfield has enjoyed a renaissance with the Buccaneers. Still, he has not played to the level of a top overall pick at any time in his career, and his butter-fingered receivers let him down at times last week.
PICK: LIONS
(3) Kansas City 23, (2) Buffalo 20 (6:30p, CBS) – My take is that Baltimore and San Francisco have the NFL’s most complete rosters, but this game will provide fans with the weekend’s best theatre. It’s KC vs. Buffalo, and it’s Mahomes vs. Allen … again. Does it get any better?
That said, the contrast between the teams couldn’t be more stark. It’s KC, the dynasty, vs. Buffalo (like Detroit), with loud, starving fans. Buffalo has never won a Super Bowl and hasn’t won a pro championship since Jack Kemp (better known nationally as a Congressman) won the AFC title in the 1960s.
Could this year be different? Both teams have been plagued with inconsistency, ineffectiveness, and injuries, with doubt that they would even get this far (the Bills were once 6-6, standing 11th in the AFC). But here they are, playing each other in the playoffs … again. Last week, the Chiefs’ offense looked like it finally has come around, and the defense is the best in the Mahomes era. Buffalo looks like a world-beater at times and is pretty shaking at other times. On Monday, the Bills had their way early against the Steelers, and then suddenly, it was a game–and that’s not a one-off either. The Bills have a history of playing gung-ho and then disappearing, and that’s why I think the Chiefs’ championship mettle will be the difference.
PICK: CHIEFS
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About Joe Platania
Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.
