My 14-2 Christmas wish wasn’t granted. Instead, I settled for 10-6 (63%), which (this season at least) is par for the course (62%, 148-92). This week, we get our last taste of inter-division contests. In Week 18, intradivision games await.
NOTE: This article was published initially on Wednesday, December 27.
Thursday
Cleveland 23, New York Jets 20 – It goes against every instinct in my body to pick Cleveland to win a game. Still, the Jets blew a nearly 20-point lead at home last week to the pathetic Commanders. Besides, Joe Flacco has discovered the Fountain of Youth in Lake Erie. Flacco hasn’t set the NFL world on fire, but he is precisely what the Browns needed. 2023-24 could be Cleveland’s third playoff appearance in the last 30 years.
Saturday
Dallas 37, Detroit 23 – Despite their gaudy record, the Cowboys have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde team–world-beaters at home, especially against bad teams and fan-weepers on the road. Yes, the ‘Boys are at home, but Detroit is not a subpar opponent. Still, it would be asking a lot for the Lions to slow down a Cowboys offense averaging an insanely good 40 points per game at JerryWorld.
Sunday
Baltimore 30, Miami 27 – The Ravens coming home from a West Coast night game on a short week is probably at least one reason why this game wasn’t flexed to Sunday night. Another reason is that Baltimore has played four prime-time games in five weeks. Yet, this is a HUGE game, more important in the playoff scheme than last week’s game in Santa Clara. The top AFC playoff seed is at stake, so there’s extra motivation for both. That said, the Ravens are one of the league’s toughest home teams, and they still have memories of a stunning blown lead at home against the Dolphins last year. I hate to nitpick on factors like that, but sometimes you have to look for the little things with an even matchup like this.
Buffalo 31, New England 17 – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick used to routinely find ways to win in challenging road assignments like the one he faces this week. But New England doesn’t have enough good players to make a run this Sunday. In the meantime, the Bills have a chance to steal the AFC East Division away from Miami. The Dolphins have a murderous schedule down the stretch and lost to the Bills earlier this year.
Houston 19, Tennessee 13 – I’ve taken a few losses on my record as I wait patiently for Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud to return from a concussion. He should be finally good to go for this critical AFC South Division home game. The Texans are in a dogfight with the rising Colts and the struggling Jaguars, while the Titans are the odd men, falling in close games like the one at home to Seattle last week.
Las Vegas 29, Indianapolis 22 – Wow! The Raiders, that is. Their professionalism and effort under coach Antonio Pierce are admirable, a teaching tool for any team that needs a primer on conducting itself, irrespective of the circumstances. Meanwhile, the Colts have it all in front of them, including a shot to win a sorry division and get a home playoff game. But the Colts lost to Atlanta, so I can’t trust them to win, even at home, especially when they face a motivated team like Las Vegas.
Carolina 27, Jacksonville 24 – Jacksonville has had a better season, its current losing streak notwithstanding. That said, the Jags have managed to fritter away a comfortable lead in a lousy division. They could go from the #3 seed to missing the postseason. On top of that, the Panthers have entered their “nothing-to-lose” mode, putting a scare into Green Bay and beating Atlanta. Do I dare pick Carolina here? I will, and it’s my biggest hunch play in several years.
San Francisco 45, Washington 3 – Anyone going to this game? Anyone watching? Anyone care? Yeah, I thought not.
Tampa Bay 23, New Orleans 19 – These two mediocre squads have been the most consistent in the sorry-state NFC South Division. But with Atlanta being a constant mystery and Carolina mainly being awful, the division title and a home playoff game will go to either the Saints or Buccaneers. Surprisingly, Baker Mayfield has rounded into form over the season, while Derek Carr has not. So, I’ll take the home-team Bucs in this one, but I don’t feel strongly about it.
Philadelphia 31, Arizona 15 – Because of games like this, most national observers think the Eagles will shake off their ills and outlast Dallas for the NFC East Division crown. “The Eagles’ schedule down the stretch is easier,” everyone says. Yes, the Cardinals are giving a classy effort to everyone they play. They will likely do the same at Lincoln Financial Field, even though I believe the Eagles will eventually prevail.
Los Angeles Rams 37, New York Giants 12 – The Rams’ offense has been humming lately, and head coach Sean McVais is not troubled by his West Coast-based team flying east to play for a 1 p.m. (ET) game. However, this one won’t be close because the fun times with “Tommy Cutlets” at the controls seem to have run their inevitable course.
Chicago 23, Atlanta 13 – I will tempt fate here: I don’t believe in the Falcons’ ability to win a game. It was one thing to beat Gardner Minshew last week but against a resurgent Justin Fields? I think that’s asking too much of a schizophrenic Atlanta team. The Bears have shown life since Fields returned, especially within their own division, and they should be able to handle business against the Falcons.
Seattle 24, Pittsburgh 17 – The Steelers’ offense resurfaces occasionally, and it did so at home last week against Cincinnati in a game that Pittsburgh desperately needed to break a three-game losing streak. But this week, it’s Seattle, and that’s a different story.
Kansas City 31, Cincinnati 17 – The Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes, while the Bengals still don’t have Joe Burrow for the rest of the season. In other words, this game at Arrowhead Stadium won’t have the marquee value anticipated before the season began. And while Jake Browning has done a surprisingly admirable job leading Cincinnati, he’s nowhere near Patrick Mahomes’ level. But perhaps the biggest storyline here is what has happened to the Chiefs. They are a struggling bunch, and I haven’t processed why.
Denver 29, Los Angeles Chargers 16 – New Chargers quarterback Easton Stick (he should work for the aluminum baseball bat company) had what passes for a breakout game last week against Buffalo. Yet, it’s only one game, and it has been a dismal season for Los Angeles, particularly on defense, special teams, and coaching. Now, they get to go to Denver, a team with something to play for.
Green Bay 27, Minnesota 26 (Sunday night) – This is one of those NFC North black-and-blue battles that should come down to the wire. Taking the Vikings home is tempting, but I won’t. By a razor-thin margin, I lean toward the more stable quarterback, and that’s Jordan Love.
