My three-week hot streak (35-13 overall) hit a snag in Week 5 (8-6), dropping my year-to-date record from 66% to 64% (50-28). That said, against the odds, I took the Jags to beat the Bills in London and was on target in that one, but missed big time on calling a Dallas win over the 49ers. A 15-game slate awaits us in Week 6, with only Pittsburgh and Green Bay getting the week off.
NOTE: All games are played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Kansas City 40, Denver 17 (Thursday night): The Chiefs have righted the ship with five straight wins after a narrow Week One loss, and KC looks to extend that streak against a Broncos squad that can’t even win at home these days. Denver used to have one of the most intimidating home-field advantages, but Kansas City has that distinction now.
Baltimore 23, Tennessee 16 (Sunday morning, London): The Ravens are coming off a second appalling loss in three weeks and, by all rights, should be undefeated. But in the real world, Baltimore is 3-2 and needs a win. Enter Tennessee, a winless team away from Nashville. An added plus–unlike the 2023 Bills and 2017 Ravens–Baltimore took the correct approach by leaving early for London (on Monday rather than on Friday).
Seattle 30, Cincinnati 24: The Bengals’ offense awakened one week earlier than I thought it would, but even if it has hit its stride, it’s asking a lot to come out on top against the Seahawks, which is my NFC Super Bowl pick. The Bengals’ off-week is coming up, and with their offense rejuvenated, they might curse the timing of it.
San Francisco 37, Cleveland 22: The 49ers have tied their franchise record with a 15-game regular-season winning streak, and Cleveland must feel cursed to be playing the Red and Gold this week. The question is whether the 49ers will be as motivated to play Cleveland as they were against historic rival Dallas. My take is that they will.
Miami 47, Carolina 6: The Dolphins’ defense has been the Achilles heel of this team, but it should right itself against struggling rookie Panthers quarterback Bryce Young. Miami has way too much skill-position speed for any opponent to deal with, and it could translate into another 70-point game. Carolina is thankful for its bye next week.
Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 17: The Jaguars are back from two Ws in London to play a pivotal AFC South Division battle against the Colts and QB Anthony Richardson, who though exciting to watch, has been slowed by a concussion and a shoulder injury. But nothing is getting in Trevor Lawrence’s way these days, and that will make the difference.
New Orleans 31, Houston 17: The Saints travel to Houston and should send the Texans into their bye week with a home loss courtesy of an offense that is finally clicking on all cylinders. C.J. Stroud has performed well for the Texans, but bets are off if Houston trails late in this contest–not with veteran Derek Carr’s comeback ability.
Chicago 17, Minnesota 13: The Bears are home fresh off back-to-back outstanding offensive efforts. Chicago will also need its defense to step up this week because they face the sometimes dangerous Kirk Cousins and his Vikings. Last year, the Vikings were 11-0 in one-score games, but things even out over time, don’t they? Minnesota has lost all but one close contest this year, and I think that outcome is in store again in Week 6. (Yes, it’s no misprint. I’m picking the Bears.)
Atlanta 19, Washington 10: My pick for “Game of the Weak” features two of the NFL’s worst teams who play in two of America’s worst sports towns. ‘Nuff said.
Detroit 34, Tampa Bay 20: This game was flexed to the late afternoon window because the Lions are relevant again with another W on the horizon. The Pewter and Gold will return to earth largely because the Baker Mayfield (the one we’ve known over the years) will show up.
Las Vegas 24, New England 9: Bill Belichick, greatest NFL coach ever? To me, they are (in order) Lombardi, Halas, Shula, Landry and Lambeau. That was then. These days Belichick’s team has lost back-to-back games by 30-plus point margins. Offensive-minded coaches prosper in today’s pass-happy league, and that’s what Josh McDaniels is, despite his poor record to date. However, the Raiders are at home coming off an uplifting win over Green Bay. A short week notwithstanding, I think this will be an easy win for the Vegas boys.
Philadelphia 29, New York Jets 19: The Jets, heading for a bye next week, will stay in this home game the way they stay in most of the others because of their defense. The Eagles, though coming off an uplifting road win at Los Angeles, still aren’t playing at full capacity. They won’t need to this week.
Los Angeles Rams 30, Arizona 20: The Cardinals are plucky, exciting, and young, but they aren’t very talented, which will show in this road contest against a Rams team that is playing better than expected. LAR is an offensive-minded team in an offensive-minded league, and with Cooper Kupp teaming with rookie Puka Nacua in the passing game, it’s not likely the Cardinals will be able to stop Matthew Stafford.
Buffalo 36, New York Giants 10 (Sunday night): When these teams square off against each other, I’m reminded of probably my best big-game pick ever. Thanks to Scott Norwood’s miss, I hit the final score on the nose in Super Bowl 25. This time, the host Bills are back from London and (at an unexpected 3-2 on the year) need a win in a very big way. The outmanned, outclassed Giants will comply.
Dallas 34, Los Angeles Chargers 23 (Monday night): Yet again, visiting partisans will drown out the home Charger fans. Because Dallas failed its San Francisco litmus test, those partisans will cheer for their team to make things right before next week’s bye. The Chargers, on the other hand, are returning from their off-week to begin what looks to be a long, depressing road ahead.
