There’s no substitution for historical analysis and investigation, and I use both to speculate about the 2023 NFL Draft for the 49ers, Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks.
As the NFL Draft approaches, Mock Drafts try to project which players will end up on which teams, and they will be mostly wrong. Some picks will be right due to luck, while others are obvious, but some require investigative work and inside information, which are the key ingredients to knowing anything.
In this article, I examine Draft results for the first two days over the past five years, including how teams have performed under their current team leadership. Movement in the first three rounds was tracked and contextualized, and that, along with a recent roster analysis, helps me predict what teams could likely do early in the upcoming Draft.
Arizona Cardinals
GM: Monti Ossenfort, hired in January 2023
Coach: Jonathan Gannon, hired in February 2023
The Cardinals were picked by many to be a playoff team in 2022, but a disappointing season led to the departure of their GM and coach as the team looks to reset. Quarterback Kyler Murray will likely miss a portion of the season as he recovers from a major knee injury. Arizona looks like one of the worst teams in the league on paper, especially as they continue to explore moves to trade veteran players.
No history of picks
With no information on Ossenfort as the head man in charge, we can only take clues from his previous employers in New England and Tennessee. Those teams aren’t afraid to be active trading on draft day and have a reputation for moving down, and that is the best strategy as Ossenfort tries to restock this roster with talent. Murray being out most of the year makes this feel like a lost season, so adding as many good young players and future picks as possible is a good strategy.
Possible trade spots: Moving down from #3 to #4 with the Colts seems like an obvious move for Indianapolis to ensure no other team jumps in front of them (assuming they will take a quarterback). Arizona can then take their top-ranked player, open the bidding, and keep moving down. Both moves have merit, but adding more picks is always beneficial. Either way, the Cardinals should walk away with multiple good players on the draft’s first two days. Arizona has the third pick in each of the first four rounds.
Los Angeles Rams
GM: Les Snead, hired in February 2012
Coach: Sean McVay, hired in January 2017
The Rams spent years making win-now moves and were rewarded with a Super Bowl title after the 2021 season. Still, injuries depleted a top-heavy team in 2022, and the team is now reloading and shedding salaries in preparation for a quick turnaround. Adding young, cheap players in the draft leaves Snead flexibility to chase star players in trades, as he has done in the past.
2018: down in 3rd
2019: down #31 to #45 to #56 to #61, up twice in 3rd
2021: down from 3rd to 4th
We know about the Rams throwing 1st round picks at star players, and it has worked. The team also has a reputation for accumulating compensatory picks in the draft, so it’s no surprise seeing them trade down more often than up, especially from a 1st rounder to near the end of round 2 in a three-move sequence in 2019. The Rams pick at #36 in the 2nd round, which would be their highest selection since taking Jared Goff #1 overall in 2016.
Possible trade spots: Look for the Rams to take advantage of their relatively high initial draft pick and trade down, similar to 2019. Seeing them end up at the end of the 2nd round, or even into the 3rd, before making their first selection would be on-brand for the Rams. It resulted in a Super Bowl win, so who are we to argue?
San Francisco 49ers
GM: John Lynch, hired in January 2017
Coach: Kyle Shanahan, hired in January 2017
The 49ers have built one of the best rosters in football, and their main question seems to be quarterback, though not for lack of trying. The team has two seemingly viable options in Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, but both are recovering from injury and have uncertain statuses as the offseason progresses. They also signed Sam Darnold in free agency to bolster that position.
2018: up in 2nd
2020: down #13 to #14, up #31 to #25
2021: up #12 to #3, down in 2nd, up from 4th to 3rd
Being active in the draft has often meant trading up in the Lynch-Shanahan era. The tactic has worked, as the 49ers routinely run out of talented teams. Still, it leaves them short on draft capital, especially as the team continues trading for veterans like running back Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco is making up for their lack of high picks by creating compensatory draft selections, holding seven in this draft, almost twice as many as the second-place Rams (four). Many of the picks are valuable, too, as they own #99, 101, and 102 through the compensatory system and an extra 5th, 6th, and two 7ths.
Possible trade spots: Look for the 49ers to be active moving around the board, especially getting higher in round 3 and even into round 2 with their bounty of extra picks. Shanahan knows how to use players and can target personnel to fit his system, but keeping the defense elite will be a more challenging task. I expect San Fran to move up when they see players they like and keep flexibility throughout the draft with their extra picks. Acquiring veterans to fill holes by trading those later picks is something to watch.
Seattle Seahawks
GM: John Schneider, hired in January 2010
Coach: Pete Carroll, hired in January 2010
Seattle nailed the 2022 draft and topped it off by getting a career year from quarterback Geno Smith, who re-signed with the team this offseason. As a result, they have as much flexibility as any team in the league, as they can stick solely with Smith and draft high-impact players or look to find his replacement in someone with a higher ceiling.
2018: down #18 to #27, down in 3rd
2019: down #21 to #30 to #37 to #47, up from 3rd to 2nd, up in 3rd
2020: up in 2nd, down 2nd to 3rd
The Seahawks create value maybe better than any other team through moving down in the draft, especially in 2019 when they started Day 1 with only four picks but ended up adding 11 players thanks to shrewd moves and a willingness to keep trading and creating value. The team now has an extra 1st round pick from the Broncos from the Russell Wilson trade, and it sits at #5.
Possible trade spots: The team could trade down from either their top pick or their original selection at #20, and neither would be a surprise, but I would expect the 20th pick more likely to move back. The fifth pick is higher than Seattle hopes to choose soon, so getting a top-tier player should be a focus.
Along with the Detroit Lions (who hold picks #6 and #18), I am intrigued by how they approach the beginning of the draft. Do the Seahawks really like Geno that much? Florida’s Anthony Richardson is a tantalizing prospect and is touted as a top-five pick, and the cost to move up from #5 to #3 shouldn’t be prohibitive for a team that creates extra value so easily through trades. If Seattle focuses on a top defensive prospect instead, however, then still look for the team to possibly move down from the 20th pick (and any Day 2 and 3 picks).
