How NBA Draft Trades Matched-Up with the Value Chart

Last week I took a look at how ESPN’s Kevin Pelton’s draft trade value chart matched up with the arsenal of picks some teams had, and I wanted to see how trades made on Draft night compared to the values assigned by Pelton.

Essentially, who won each trade? Evaluating trades based solely on the chart isn’t always fair because teams have different reasons for trades and are trying to accomplish different things. The inclusion of players and money makes some trades difficult or impossible to evaluate with the chart, so not every draft-night trade is included here.

Second-Rounders with Cash

There were multiple trades in which a team received a second-round pick this year for a second-rounder in the future or later in the draft, along with “cash considerations.”

Orlando Magic traded #35 to the Los Angeles Lakers for the highest of the Lakers and Washington Wizards’ second-rounders in 2028 and cash considerations
Minnesota Timberwolves traded #48 to the Indiana Pacers for a 2026 second-round pick and cash considerations
San Antonio Spurs traded #38 to the Memphis Grizzlies for a 2024 second-round pick (from the Lakers) and cash considerations
Atlanta Hawks traded #44 to the Golden State Warriors for #51 and cash considerations
(One similar but a little different) Sacramento Kings traded #49 to the Cleveland Cavaliers for the draft rights to Sasha Vezenkov and cash considerations

Different levels of value are present in each of these trades, but they all follow the same guideline; I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. The teams acquiring the pick this year are gaining a low-stakes asset (a second-rounder) while giving up a later unknown asset and some money for the right to acquire their new player.

The Magic, Timberwolves, and Spurs all were paid for their patience in waiting anywhere from two to six years for their pick. The amount of money sent wasn’t readily available in most cases, but teams can trade up to only a certain amount of money each season; this year, it was just under $6 million. While the need (or lack thereof) for players can influence these decisions, teams also like to have future assets to use in trades. Second-round picks are like roadies bouncing around from town to town, but teams that stock up on them have extra ammo for future moves.

The Warriors paid the Hawks to move down seven spots; simple. The Cavs taking Vezenkov instead of a future second-rounder is interesting because they are still taking an unknown asset, but one of a different nature. Vezenkov was originally drafted 57th overall by the Brooklyn Nets in 2017 and has continued to play overseas rather than coming to the NBA. If he does ever come over, he will join the team that owns his draft rights at the time, currently Cleveland.

According to the value chart, these second-round picks are not worth much, so movement is a lot easier, and teams don’t scrutinize the value as much as they do a first-round pick. While a lottery ticket for the chance to find a useful player is nice, these picks seem to have more value as a future asset rather than a player who can be traded.

Timberwolves’ First Round

Minnesota had an active first round, starting with the 19th pick and making several moves to bring in current and future assets. The first trade exchanged that 19th pick for numbers 22 and 29, while the Wolves also sent out a future second-round pick. We will have to approximate the value of all future picks, but number 19 is worth 1090 points of value, while 22 (860) and 29 (520) add up to 1380. That difference of 290 points is exactly the value of the 36th pick, so that is the pivot point of this trade. If the Wolves send a pick between 31 and 35, the Grizzlies will win the trade. More likely, the pick will fall between 37-60, which means the Wolves would win the trade. I like it for Minnesota.

(As we talk about “winning a trade,” this only relates to the value perceived from Pelton’s chart and has nothing to do with the players drafted. The players’ performance will determine who comes out on top in the end.)

Minnesota’s second trade in the first round was trading the 29th pick they acquired along with second-round picks in 2025 and 2027 to the Houston Rockets to move up to pick 26. This one doesn’t look as good for the Wolves. The 26th pick is worth 660 points, a jump of 140 points from number 29, equal to the value of the 50th pick. Chances are one of those two picks will have more value than the 50th pick alone without accounting for the second extra pick. The Rockets will probably reap the benefits of this trade moving forward.

One last Timberwolves trade: they moved back from 40 to 45 in a trade with the Charlotte Hornets and picked up a 2023 second-rounder that originally belonged to the New York Knicks. The difference in value between those picks is 50 points, equal to the last pick in the draft. The Knicks are likely to be middle-of-the-league next year, meaning Minnesota likely got excellent value for their slight move down.

Knicks Get Active

Speaking of New York, they made some big moves in the first round to gain future assets. There are rumors of the Knicks looking for bigger fish in trade or free agency, and they took action to shed current salary and not take on the money of their first-round pick. The first trade announced live at the draft involved their number 11 going to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Rather than moving up from their 12th pick, the Thunder traded three future first-round picks to the Knicks, each with protections.

I wanted to look at these picks’ potential value, although some might turn into second-rounders because of the protections. The Knicks also took one of those picks and sent it to the Hornets (more below) in exchange for a 2025 first-round pick (from Milwaukee). That pick will be around 25th at best if Milwaukee continues to thrive with Giannis. The Washington Wizards are entering a rebuild, so their pick (top-14 protected) will likely become two second-rounders. If the Pistons’ pick conveys as a first-rounder (top-18 protected), the total value will probably come in between the fifth (2240 points) and seventh (2000) pick, a clear win for the Knicks. If the Pistons don’t improve as quickly as we might think and their pick becomes two second-rounders as well, the total value of the package would be more like 1200 points, or near the 15th pick. The Knicks’ return probably won’t come out as good as the initial headline of three first-rounders looks.

Hornets Get Involved

Charlotte got a lot of potential future value in a trade that included the Knicks and Detroit Pistons. The Hornets got the Nuggets’ top-18 protected pick, and four future second-round picks. As they are from various teams, giving them all a value in the middle of the second round seems fair. The 21st pick (where the Nuggets pick landed this year) is worth 920 value points and, paired with the second-round picks, comes to about 1720 of the 10th pick. This haul is for the 13th pick this year, so Charlotte will probably get surplus value if they are patient.

The Pistons ended up with that 13th pick and took on Kemba Walker from the Knicks, another move in New York’s quest to free up space on this year’s team. Walker and the Pistons are apparently talking about a buyout, so he will probably be a free agent soon. Speaking of the Knicks, they traded a first-rounder next year for a likely less valuable pick in the future and also sent out their next two second-round picks to get rid of Walker’s contract. An average projection puts the total value near the 1320 of the 14th pick. That’s a hefty price, and New York fans will continue to be apoplectic if the Knicks strike out in free agency again.

One More to Investigate

There are a couple of other trades involving draft picks that are hard to evaluate with the chart because players are involved, but there was one trade that saw the Dallas Mavericks acquire the 37th pick from the Sacramento Kings for second-rounders in 2024 and 2028. The 37th pick is worth 280 points, so looking at the value of second-rounders can show how the Kings can win or lose the trade.

Half of the value, 140, is exactly the 50th pick, so the two future seconds need to average 50th for this to be an even trade. Dallas is likely to be a good team as long as Luka Doncic is there and healthy, but the odds are these picks will fall more in Sacramento’s favor. If nothing else, having two extra trade chips or two rolls of the dice instead of one isn’t a bad play.

No trade seems to have been a big haul one way or the other for any team, and most will probably come out pretty fair in the end. The players drafted, and their development will tell much more of the story, but no team was able to clearly come out ahead tonight. Future picks landing in more or less favorable positions would change the view on some of these trades in the future, but everything looks to have stayed mainly within the levels of the value chart this year.