Fresh off another 4-2 performance on Wild Card Weekend (the same outcome as in 2021), we move on to the Divisional round–dubbed as “football’s best weekend” when #1-seeds take the field. Will upsets emerge with 4- and 6-seeds in the mix? Here’s what I think.
Saturday Games
Will Henry return? (photo, Deseret News)
(1) Tennessee 24, (4) Cincinnati 20 (4:30 p.m., CBS) – It seems like a lifetime ago, but it was in Week Eight that Titans standout back Derrick Henry incurred a serious foot injury. He hasn’t played since. But even without him, the Titans had the league’s fifth-ranked rushing attack, and their third-down and red-zone offense both rank in the top ten–something that only Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, LAC, and Buffalo can also claim. Yet, the Titans have been a baffling bunch, losing to Houston, Chicago, and the New York Jets while beating LAR, Kansas City, and Buffalo. This is one case where the bye week could help a team and not render it rusty–as it did to Baltimore when Tennessee upset it in this same round two years ago. Yes, the Bengals got a 31-year playoff monkey off their back, but the ride ends here.
(1) Green Bay 31, (6) San Francisco 23 (8:15 p.m., Fox) – For the second straight weekend, the NFL offers a titanic clash. Last week it was the Cowboys-49ers. This Saturday, it is the Packers-49ers. The Packers are here thanks to Aaron Rodgers. His play enabled Green Bay to overcome team deficiencies, especially apparent on defense and special teams. The good news for Bay fans is that team defense is getting better and healthier–tackle David Bakhtiari and corner Jaire Alexander have returned. On the other side of the field, the 49ers are lucky to be here. Dallas kept making unforced errors last week, largely the outcome of undisciplined play. Still, the ‘Niners nearly let a two-score lead get away. Don’t expect the Packers to mimic the Cowboys and gift-wrap a win for the visiting team. Besides, a West Coast team will have to play a night game in frigid temperatures with snow in the forecast. Packers win and move on.
Sunday Games
(4) Los Angeles Rams 27, (2) Tampa Bay 20 (3 p.m., NBC) – The defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers have a lot going for them this Sunday, including an underrated front seven on defense and (of course) a guy named Tom Brady. So, why am I picking the Rams? It’s because I’m sticking with my pre-season pick–for LAR to win the NFC West and then represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Yes, I know, Tampa Bay is perfectly capable of winning on Sunday, but here are three reasons I don’t think they will. First, the Bucs’ questionable secondary has to deal with Matt Stafford and the passel of Rams’ receivers (including the continuing-to-amaze Cooper Cupp). Second, two key Bucs’ offensive linemen are hobbled. And, third, Brady will be a target for linebacker Von Miller and defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That’s too much for Tampa Bay to overcome, even at home. The Rams will play next weekend.
(2) Kansas City 38, (3) Buffalo 34 (6:30 p.m., CBS) – The national media have already labeled this game as the weekend’s marquee matchup, and that’s why it is positioned as a prime-time offering. These two met last year in the last year’s AFC Championship Game–also played at Arrowhead–and the Chiefs came out on top. But that was then, and Sunday is now. Both teams have had up-and-down years, but they played best when it mattered most. On offense, the Bills are known for Josh Allen’s mobility, a remade O-line, a variety of targets, and a serviceable running back in the person of Devin Singletary. The Chiefs have youth, speed, and the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Both defensive units are good–and that’s saying something when it comes to the previously dubious crew that wears red. But I don’t think defense will win this game–offense will–and I give the Chiefs the edge. Look for KC to win a competitive, exciting, and close game.
