Last September, I correctly predicted five of eight division winners. Indianapolis, Baltimore, and Minnesota didn’t come through. Now it’s on to the Playoffs, Wild Card Weekend, first. Last year, I picked four of six Wild Card games correctly. This year? The answer awaits….
Saturday’s Games
Derek Carr (photo, Pro Football Focus)
(5) Las Vegas 26, (4) Cincinnati 24 (4:30 p.m., NBC) 2011-15 was the last time that the Bengals were this good, going to the playoffs each year but losing in the first round each time. You have to go back 31 seasons for a time that Cincy has won a postseason game. It’s tempting to pick them here with a young, explosive offensive nucleus, but I won’t. I feel compelled to take the Raiders–authors of three wins down the stretch thanks to late field goals, two of them on the road. The Bengals are building something special, but it’s not their time. Not yet anyway.
(3) Buffalo 27, (6) New England 20 (8:15 p.m., CBS) – Bills fans should get a familiar feeling here, one that goes back just one year. Last year, a home Saturday-night playoff game against a tough opponent was the assignment, and the Bills smothered Baltimore, 17-3. Now, it’s the third meeting this season with New England. The teams split their divisional games, each winning on the other’s field. The Monday-night game in Buffalo is still being talked about (the Pats threw only three passes on a windy night and ran and ran and ran to a win). Buffalo was irritated by that showing, and they parlayed their distress into winning four in a row (including a win at Foxborough) and regaining the edge the team had when it got off to a 6-3 start. This time, it should be another good battle with the Bills winning a close game.
Sunday’s Games
Sporting News
(2) Tampa Bay 31, (7) Philadelphia 16 (1 p.m., Fox) – The Eagles got off to a 3-6 start before its top-ranked running game propelled them to a 6-1 spurt and a second playoff berth out of the NFC East. But it would be asking quite a bit for this Eagles team to beat the defending Super Bowl champs. Despite critical offensive injuries, Tampa Bay has a much more complete team, the home-field advantage, and the better quarterback in Tom Brady. The ever-productive Brady leads the NFL’s top-ranked passing attack at over 307 yards per game.
(3) Dallas 30, (6) San Francisco 20 (4:30 p.m., CBS/Nickelodeon) – It’s always great to see these iconic franchises tangle in the postseason. But this time, Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, and Troy Aikman won’t be playing at AT&T Stadium. As with any football game at any level, turnovers will be a key. And that’s one area where the ‘Boys excel. This year, Dallas’s revived defense forced an NFL-high 34 turnovers, a big factor in allowing about 140 fewer points this year over 2020. The Cowboys also intercepted 26 passes, another league-high, and had a plus-14 turnover ratio, which is tied for the NFL’s best with Indianapolis. On the other hand, San Francisco is dealing with a quarterback quandary and had another injury-riddled season before finally getting healthy. The 49ers gave the ball away 24 times this year and had a minus-4 turnover ratio. The numbers say Dallas will win.
(2) Kansas City 34, (7) Pittsburgh 23 (8:15 p.m., NBC) – Just a few weeks ago, the Steelers were annihilated at Arrowhead Stadium at a time when it looked like they wouldn’t make the playoffs. But the football gods–as well as a leaky Baltimore secondary and lack of a pass rush–allowed Pittsburgh’s future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s career to continue for one more week. So here we are (again) with all the marbles on the table–marbles for KC’s taking. The recent vintage Chiefs have postseason mettle, going to two Super Bowls and winning one. This year, they showed resolve–migrating from a 2-3 start (and a last-place residency in the AFC West Division)–to winning seven straight games in a 10-2 burst that earned them the West title a #2-seed in the conference. The Chiefs are themselves again.
Monday’s Game
LAR’s Stafford and Cupp (photo, LA Times)
(4) Los Angeles Rams 24, (5) Arizona 20 (8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC) – I had thought (at least for a while) that the NFC West Division had taken a bit of a step back, and that the AFC North had become football’s best four-team group. But even though the AFC North had all four teams win eight or more games, the NFC West put three teams into the playoffs, including these two. These days, it’s about getting hot at the right time. Arizona went 4-6 after a 7-0 start to the season, while the Rams (my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl) won five straight and clinched the division with their win at Baltimore. Matthew Stafford has proven he can win when he has a solid team around him. He does, and it includes phenom receiver, Cooper Cupp.
