Ravens v. Steelers: Sizing Up Pittsburgh + Game Prediction

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For the Steelers, rivalry, familiarity, and emotion take you only so far, especially against a Baltimore team that keeps finding ways to win. 


WHAT: Week 13, Game 12 at Pittsburgh Steelers
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. (ET); Sunday, December 5
WHERE: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh (68,400)
RECORDS: Ravens, 8-3; Steelers, 5-5-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Steelers lead, 27-23, with the teams having evenly split their last six overall meetings. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers lead, 15-10, and have won five times in Baltimore’s last nine visits to Heinz Field. Pittsburgh stopped a two-game home losing streak to Baltimore with last year’s win in a game rescheduled multiple times due to COVID.
LOCAL MEDIA: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, booth; Tracy Wolfson, sidelines), WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Obafemi Ayanbadejo, booth)
REFEREE: Scott Novak

About the Steelers

Naturally because of their division affiliations, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are the opponents the Ravens have played more often than any other in Baltimore’s 26-season history. This Sunday’s upcoming game will mark the 51st regular-season game and 55th overall lifetime meeting between Baltimore and Pittsburgh (including postseason); the Ravens have played Cincinnati 51 times and Cleveland on 45 occasions.

Since the AFC North was formed after the 2002 realignment, the Steelers have the most division titles with nine, the most recent coming in 2017 and 2020. But with Baltimore having won the division in both 2018 and 2019, its total is now six. Cincinnati has four AFC North titles, the last coming in 2015, and Cleveland hasn’t won a division title of any kind since taking the old AFC Central in 1989.

When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they met the Steelers 11 times (including postseason). Pittsburgh won eight, including a 4-2 record in Baltimore and a 4-1 mark in Pittsburgh.

Historically, the Steelers franchise has had a contrasting dual identity. From 1933-1971, Pittsburgh had only eight winning seasons out of its first 39 with only one playoff appearance. Since then, it has added 31 playoff appearances (the total of 32 is tied with the New York Giants for the league’s third-most; Pittsburgh is one of only six teams with 30 or more), with eight wild-card berths and a staggering 24 division crowns, tied with Dallas for the second-most first-place finishes behind Green Bay (28).

Pittsburgh’s eight Super Bowl appearances are tied for the second-most all-time with Dallas and Denver, and three behind record-holder New England. The Steelers’ six Super Bowl championships are tied with New England for the most and one better than the five each won by Dallas and San Francisco. Pittsburgh has made 16 appearances in the conference title game, tied with New England and Dallas for third-most all-time behind the New York Giants (19) and Green Bay (18).

The return match in this rivalry will be played in Baltimore on January 9, which is the regular season’s final Sunday (Week 18). It will mark the third time in the last four years the Ravens will host the return match and the second time it will conclude the regular season since the league-mandated divisional play in the season’s final week starting in 2010. The teams also ended the regular schedule against each other in 2002, 2003, and 2007, before the final-week mandate was announced.

A total of 17 of the teams’ 54 regular-season and playoff meetings have been played in prime time. The Ravens have registered four two-game regular-season sweeps of Pittsburgh (’06, ’11, ’15, ‘19), while the Steelers have six sweeps (’97, ’98, ’02, ’08, ’17, ‘20). There have been 15 splits (including 2018, when each team won on the other’s home field, the sixth time that has happened), and Pittsburgh has won three of four postseason meetings, including the 2008 AFC Championship Game. All of the playoff meetings have been in Pittsburgh. Had the Ravens won the 2008 game, they would have played in Super Bowl 43 in Tampa, site of Baltimore’s Super Bowl 35 win.

The history of this rivalry has been enriched by the number of close games that have resulted. The Ravens and Steelers have played to one-score margins in 20 of their last 26 regular-season meetings, dating back to December 2007. Also, 14 of the last 26 regular-season meetings between these two teams have been decided by three or fewer points–the most by any pair of teams, outdistancing Dallas-Washington and San Francisco-St. Louis/Los Angeles (eight each). Since 2008, Ravens-Steelers games have had an average margin of approximately seven points, closer than any other pair of teams. In the teams’ last 32 meetings, the teams have split them evenly (16-16), with Baltimore also holding a slim 41-point advantage (685-648).

Heinz Field was built at a cost of $281 million ($411 million in 2020 dollars) and sits near the site of the Steelers’ former home, Three Rivers Stadium, which was imploded and demolished shortly after the Steelers moved out after the 2000 season. Adding to the luster of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is the fact that the Ravens won in their last game at Three Rivers, then went on to become the first visiting team to win at Heinz Field. In fact, the Ravens will always be known as the first visitors to win at five stadiums currently in use around the league: Pittsburgh, Denver, Tennessee, Washington and New York (MetLife Stadium). However, it’s also fair to point out that Pittsburgh won in the first regular-season game played at what is now M&T Bank Stadium in the 1998 season opener.

The natural-grass turf at Heinz Field is one of the most difficult on which to play in the entire NFL, due in part to the stadium’s location near the confluence of the Ohio, Allegheny, and Monongahela Rivers and the sometimes-troublesome winds that come from the waters, although an extra seating section has partially solved that problem. What also doesn’t help is that the stadium gets a lot of usage from local high school teams and the University of Pittsburgh as well. The longest field goal kicked there was a 56-yarder earlier this season by the Steelers’ Chris Boswell.

Pittsburgh is one of nine teams around the league that has a lifetime winning regular-season record against the Ravens. The two teams split their first clashes in 1996, but the Steelers have led ever since. Baltimore very nearly tied the series on Christmas Day, 2016, but Antonio Brown’s game-winning touchdown, in which he memorably stretched the ball over the goal line while being tackled, gave the Steelers a 31-27 win in a game that, had the Ravens won, would have evened the series. The other clubs with winning records against Baltimore are Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New England and Tennessee.

After notching what was seen as a surprising Week One win in Buffalo, the Steelers lost three straight games before winning four in a row. That stretch was halted by the team’s home tie game against the Detroit Lions. Since then, Pittsburgh has allowed 41 points in each of its last two games, losing by four at Los Angeles (Chargers) and by a 31-point blowout at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh wasted a good early schedule, one in which they played four home games in a five-week span. Sunday’s game against visiting Baltimore kicks off a home-away sequence that runs through to the end of the regular season; the Steelers close the regular season by traveling for the return match with the Ravens.

The Steelers’ five wins have all come in one-score games with an average victory margin of five points. Pittsburgh has failed to score 20 points in six of its games this year and is 1-4-1 in those games. The Steelers are uncharacteristically out of balance offensively, having run the ball 259 times and attempted to pass it 459 times (including 24 sacks allowed). Pittsburgh’s ground game has produced only seven of the team’s 23 total touchdowns.

Defensively, the Steelers have allowed 29 total touchdowns, including 16 through the air and 11 on the ground (two via returns). Pittsburgh has allowed 43 more points than it has scored and has been outscored in every quarter except the fourth, where it holds a slight 95-77 edge. Steeler opponents have attempted to run the ball 304 times and tried to pass it on 393 occasions (including 30 Steeler sacks allowed by ten different players).

The Steelers are in the middle of the league pack with 70 accepted penalties committed, a total that is seven more than that of Baltimore. The team has committed 13 false starts and 11 holds, which are rather respectable totals for this juncture of the season, but they have been cited for eight defensive holding flags, only four behind league leader Buffalo. Individually, four Steelers have committed five or more penalties, led by receiver Chase Claypool (seven), who has been flagged three times for offensive pass interference. Guard Kevin Dotson has been called for holding four times.

The Steelers are not playing to their customary selves when it comes to committing and creating turnovers, as the team currently sports a minus-4 ratio, yet that figure is better than Baltimore’s minus-7 reading. The Steeler defense has intercepted five passes (from five different players) and has covered five of their opponents’ 12 fumbles. Pittsburgh has lost seven of its 14 fumbles and has thrown seven interceptions on offense, with one of them returned for a touchdown.

Through Week 12’s Sunday games, the Steelers are ranked 22nd in total offense (28th rushing, 15th passing, 22nd scoring at 20.4 points per game). Also, the Steelers are ranked a rather mediocre 17th in both red-zone offense and average possession time (30:03). However, Pittsburgh does have the league’s eighth-best third-down conversion rate, even while averaging only slightly more than 19 first downs per game.

Defensively, Pittsburgh is ranked 24th overall, allowing 367.5 yards per game (28th vs. rush, 12th vs. pass, 23rd scoring by allowing 24.3 points per game). Pittsburgh is ranked sixth in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed and eighth in allowing third-down conversions. The Steelers are allowing just over 20 first downs per game, ranking them solidly in the middle of the league’s 32-team pack.

Head coach, William & Mary graduate and Hampton, Virginia native Mike Tomlin, now in his 15th season at the helm but still relatively young at 49, is the 16th head coach in Steelers’ franchise history and only the third since 1969, following former Baltimore Colts assistant Chuck Noll and Pittsburgh native Bill Cowher. Tomlin has a combined regular-season/playoff record of 158-91-2 (.633), the second-best winning percentage among active coaches (Bill Belichick), but a rather mediocre postseason mark of 8-8. Tomlin has never posted a losing record over a single season in his time coaching the Steelers; the worst he has done is 8-8, which has happened three times (2012, 2013, 2019). Against Baltimore, Tomlin is 14-14 in regular-season play and 2-1 in postseason games. -Tomlin has won six division titles, reached the playoffs four times in his first five seasons (and in nine of his 14 years overall), and became the youngest head coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl (36) when his team beat Arizona in Super Bowl 43 in Tampa. Tomlin’s teams have made three AFC Championship Game appearances and played in two Super Bowls, losing to Green Bay in Super Bowl 45 at Dallas. After several collegiate coaching stops, Tomlin coached defensive backs in the NFL at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay before becoming Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, then moving on to Pittsburgh after Cowher retired after the 2006 season. Notable assistants working under Tomlin include senior defensive assistant/secondary coach Teryl Austin (Ravens secondary coach, 2011-13), quarterbacks coach Matt Canada (University of Maryland interim head coach, 2018), inside linebackers coach Jerry Olsavsky (Ravens backup linebacker, 1998), quality control coach Matt Tomsho (Maryland, 2018), and wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard, who played against the Ravens in Super Bowl 35 when he was a receiver with the New York Giants.

Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, a six-time Pro Bowl pick and two-time Super Bowl champion, is now in his 18th season. He made his NFL debut off the bench in Baltimore in 2004, when he replaced Tommy Maddox in the only game the 15-1 Steelers lost that year. He is 15-10 lifetime against the Ravens, but he has missed three of the Steelers’ last four games against Baltimore due to injuries. Roethlisberger has completed just over 61 percent of his passes lifetime against the Ravens, with 40 touchdowns, 24 interceptions and a passer rating just over 85. The Ravens have sacked him 60 times, tied with Cincinnati for the most sacks of Roethlisberger by any opponent.

This season, Roethlisberger has hit on 64.6 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions, playing to a passer rating of 88.9. He has been sacked 24 times. Roethlisberger is backed up by Mason Rudolph, a 6-foot-5, 235-pound South Carolina native taken in the third round of the 2018 draft (76th overall) from Oklahoma State, and former Washington Football Team first-round pick Dwayne Haskins.

University of Pittsburgh product James Conner left his hometown NFL team to become the main back with the Arizona Cardinals, so the Steelers used a first-round pick in 2021 on Najee Harris, who comes from the potent Alabama program. Harris has 708 rushing yards and five of the team’s seven rushing scores, but no single carry has lasted longer than 20 yards; he is averaging 3.6 per carry. Harris’ main contribution has come in the passing game with 52 catches, the team’s second-most, and two touchdowns. Harris’ 1059 scrimmage yards, his rushing total, and his touchdowns lead all rookie running backs. Backup runners Benny Snell and Kalen Ballage have 26 carries between them, and former Maryland back Anthony McFarland has only three carries all year after being a fourth-round pick (124th overall) in 2020. Derek Watt, brother to pass-rush teammate TJ Watt and Arizona Cardinals standout JJ Watt, is the fullback. In two of the Steelers’ last three games against Baltimore, Snell has had 90 or more total yards.

The Steelers’ uncanny propensity for drafting top-flight wide receivers has continued in recent years with 2019 third-rounder (66th overall) Diontae Johnson, who also chips in on punt returns. Johnson has a team-high 68 catches, an 11.9-yard average and four touchdowns, including a 50-yard score. In his last game against the Ravens, Johnson hauled in eight catches.

Another gem came in the form of 2020 second-round pick Chase Claypool (49th overall), who has scored one touchdown but leads the team with a 16.4-yard average. Claypool’s 37 receptions are the team’s fourth-most. Return specialist Ray-Ray McCloud has 19 grabs and James Washington, the team’s 2018 second-round pick (60th overall), has chipped in with 17 with one touchdown. Juju Smith-Schuster, the team’s top receiver in recent seasons, is out for the year with a shoulder problem.

At the tight end position, the Steelers had to place longtime NFL veteran Eric Ebron (Detroit, Indianapolis) on injured reserve, and 2019 fifth-round pick (141st overall) Zach Gentry (Michigan) is still a backup to the team’s new starter, Penn State-bred rookie Pat Friermuth, a 6-foot-5, 258-pounder. Friermuth has 40 catches, the team’s third-most, and leads the Steelers with six of the team’s 15 receiving touchdowns. Ebron and Gentry have combined for 19 receptions and one score. Gentry might have to e called on due to Friermuth having to go into the concussion protocol this week.

The Steelers’ offensive line has had health problems in the interior, what with Kevin Dotson and JC Hassenauer both felled by injuries, the latter had to leave the recent Chargers game due to a shoulder problem. As a result, BJ Finney has moved from backup right guard to starting left guard; the former Cincinnati Bengal is back with the Steelers after leaving for Seattle in 2020. The tackle pairing of left-sider Dan Moore and right-side man Chukwuma Okorafor is intact, and the line is rounded out by right guard Trai Turner, an eight-year veteran from LSU who has played for Carolina and the Los Angeles Chargers, and center Kendrick Green, an Illinois alum who is the only rookie center to have started in Week One this year.

The Steelers defensive line has been hampered by the injured-reserve absences of 12-year veteran Tyson Alualu and eight-year pass rush ace Stephon Tuitt. But the team still has defensive end Cameron Heyward, a six-time captain, four-time Pro Bowl selection, and two-time first-team All-Pro who is one of the best pass-rushing down linemen in the league. His 57 tackles are the team’s fourth-most, and he can also boast of 5.5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, eight tackles for loss, and seven pass breakups, along with an interception and fumble recovery.

On the other side of the line is former Baltimore draft pick Chris Wormley, traded to Pittsburgh in 2020 after three seasons with the Ravens. He has 32 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a forced fumble. In the middle of the line is nose tackle Henry Mondeaux, a former practice-squad player who now starts over Isaiah Buggs, who was a healthy scratch last week. This week, Pittsburgh signed Montravius Adams off the New Orleans practice squad to bolster its defensive-line depth. Linebacker Robert Spillane, who nabbed an interception against the Ravens last year, has a knee sprain and might not play.

The Steelers’ inside linebacker corps got two big boosts going into the season with Devin Bush returning from a season-ending knee injury last year, as well as the acquisition of former Cleveland and Jacksonville tackling machine Joe Schobert. Bush has 50 tackles and a pair of sacks, but Schobert has solidified the middle of the defense, leading the team in tackles with 78, along with four pass breakups and a forced fumble.

Fifth-year outside linebacker TJ Watt has been plagued this year by knee and hip injuries that eventually forced him to miss the game against the Los Angeles Chargers, but he will now miss out against Baltimore, as he is on the COVID-19 list. Watt leads the team with 12.5 sacks (second in the league) and is a key ingredient in the team’s pass rush. Watt has 13 tackles for loss, 20 quarterback hits, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Watt had three tackles for losses and two sacks in his last game against the Ravens.

It’s likely that former Dallas first-round pick Taco Charlton would fill in for Watt, playing opposite Alex Highsmith (50 tackles, three sacks, ten quarterback hits, nine tackles for loss). He’s a second-year player from Charlotte who snagged his first career interception at Baltimore last year.

Pittsburgh’s secondary has been hit with injuries, most notably the foot injury that has kept cornerback Joe Haden out for the last two weeks; his status for Baltimore is unknown. Haden has 24 tackles and five pass breakups. Fifth-year corner Cameron Sutton became the top cover man in Haden’s absence; he has 34 stops along with four tackles for loss, an interception, and four pass breakups. Listed as Sutton’s backup is temporary starter James Pierre, who also has a pickoff, four breakups and a forced fumble. Pierre is in his second year from Florida Atlantic.

In the safety spots, the team’s 2018 first-round pick, Virginia Tech’s Terrell Edmunds (58 tackles, third on the team, sack, six tackles for loss, interception), is the starter at strong safety. At free safety, Pittsburgh made an in-season trade two years ago to bring in disgruntled Miami Dolphins draftee Minkah Fitzpatrick, who has an interception and 72 tackles, second-most on the team. Fitzpatrick returned to the Steelers’ lineup last week against Cincinnati and recorded eight tackles and his first interception of the year after missing the previous week’s game with COVID-19.

The Steelers’ special-teams unit is again turning to former Clemson wideout Ray-Ray McCloud to handle their primary kick and punt return duties. McCloud was originally drafted by Buffalo in the sixth round (187th overall) of the 2018 draft and played for Carolina before coming to Pittsburgh in 2020. He has returned 22 punts and made nine fair catches with his runbacks garnering an 8.8-yard average; no return has lasted longer than 19 yards. His kick-return average is 24 yards per return, ranking in the league’s top ten. The Pittsburgh coverage teams rank in the league’s bottom third, allowing 8.9 yards per punt return and 24.2 yards on kick runbacks.

Seventh-year kicker Chris Boswell, a Rice alumnus, kicked the longest field goal in Heinz Field history earlier this year (56 yards). The 2017 Pro Bowl selection has played 87 career games, all with Pittsburgh after breaking into the league as an undrafted rookie with the Houston Texans. Boswell has scored a team-high 86 points this year, a testimony to how Pittsburgh has had trouble finishing off drives. He is 20-for-21 on extra points and 22-for-23 on field-goal tries. Boswell has made all six of his tries from 50 yards and beyond this year.

Steelers punter Pressley Harvin, also the team’s holder, is a big rookie from Georgia Tech, weighing in at six feet tall and 255 pounds. He won the Ray Guy Award last year as college football’s top punter and is the first African-American to win the award. Harvin is only the third Georgia Tech player at any position to win unanimous All-America honors, following Ken Swilling and Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson. This year, he has just three touchbacks in 46 total punts and has forced 11 fair catches while placing 19 punts inside the coffin corner. His Steeler teammates have blocked two punts this year, including one that turned the tide in the Week One win over Buffalo.

Prediction

The Steelers, winless in their last three, look old, slow, and done, But, then again, there have been other occasions in this rivalry when Pittsburgh looked vulnerable coming into the game. Plus, this game will be in front of the Heinz Field crowd, who will no doubt be expecting, at the very least, a supreme effort against a heated rival. I think the Steelers will provide that effort, but do they have enough to get a win out of this game? My take is no.

Baltimore 27, Pittsburgh 17

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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