Ravens v. Browns, Round 2: Sizing Up Cleveland + Game Prediction

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Baltimore has seen its division lead shrink to one game, but its destiny is in its own hands.


WHAT: Week 14, Game 13 at Cleveland Browns
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, December 12
WHERE: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland (67,895)
RECORDS: Ravens, 8-4; Browns, 6-6
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 34-11, and have won five of the last seven meetings overall, including the last four straight. In Cleveland, the Ravens are 16-6 against the Browns and, despite losing an overtime game there in 2018, Baltimore has beaten the Browns in Cleveland in each of its last two visits there, as well as in six of the last seven visits and 11 of the last 13.
TV AND LOCAL RADIO: CBS with Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, and Melanie Collins. WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Obafemi Ayanbadejo, booth)
REFEREE: Brad Rogers

About the Browns

Along with the Baltimore Colts and San Francisco 49ers, the Browns franchise was born as part of the All-America Football Conference in 1946. Cleveland won all four of that league’s championships, going on to advance to the NFL title game in its first six years after that, a run of ten straight championship-game appearances.

Since joining the NFL alongside the Colts and 49ers after a 1950 merger, the Browns have won 18 division titles (none since winning the old AFC Central in 1989) and earned 25 total playoff berths (tied with Washington for the league’s eighth-most) in 70 full NFL seasons. However, the Browns’ recent history has not been nearly as spectacular.

The Browns are one of four franchises that have never appeared in a Super Bowl (along with Houston, Jacksonville, and Detroit). Cleveland last won an NFL championship in 1964, two seasons before the Super Bowl was born. Until last year, Cleveland had not had a record of .500 or better since going 10-6 in 2007, a year when it still missed the playoffs. Before 2020, the team had not been to the postseason since 2002, their only playoff berth since returning to the league as an expansion team in 1999.

The Browns are 0-3 in the modern-day AFC Championship Game, losing to Denver in 1986 (“The Drive”), 1987 (“The Fumble”), and 1989 (“The Blowout”). Since returning to the league as a 1999 expansion team, Cleveland has no AFC North titles – the only team in the division to have never won it since it was formed after the 2002 realignment – and has made just two playoff appearances (2002, 2020) with only three winning seasons (2002, 2007, 2020). The Browns had finished last in the North for seven straight years before 2018, last avoiding the cellar before that by going 5-11 in 2010.

When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they met the Browns on 15 occasions, winning only five of those games and losing their last five straight matchups with Cleveland before moving to Indianapolis. The teams met three times in the postseason play, with the Browns winning the 1964 NFL title game at home, 27-0 (the franchise’s last title of any kind), the Colts returning the favor four years later, 34-0, a result that put them into Super Bowl 3, and Baltimore winning a 1971 Divisional round game on the road, 20-3, before getting shut out at Miami, 21-0, in the AFC title game.

With this division matchup being played in Cleveland, it will continue a rather curious trend that will see the return match (second game) being played in Cleveland in five of the past seven years. Despite that, the Ravens have swept this head-to-head series 13 times, including last year, while the Browns have recorded only two sweeps (2001, 2007). There have been seven splits, the most recent occurring in 2015 and again in 2018 and 2019.

The Ravens’ 34 regular-season wins over Cleveland represent their highest number over any opponent in the league in team history, quite a feat because the Browns did not even exist during the Ravens’ first three seasons in the league. Naturally, the other two AFC North opponents rank second and third, with Baltimore having defeated Cincinnati 26 times and Pittsburgh on 23 occasions.

The Browns’ home venue is a considerable upgrade from the old Cleveland Municipal Stadium, which had stood for over a half-century before being knocked down after the Browns moved to Baltimore in 1996. The team’s current stadium was completed in just over two years at the cost of just under $300 million. The playing surface comprises Kentucky bluegrass with a sand-soil root zone and an underground heating system of 40 miles of tubing. The venue covers 1.64 million square feet on a 31-acre site.

Cleveland is coming out of its bye week to play this home game against Baltimore; it will play at home for three of its last five games. They play the Ravens on either side of their bye in a quirky bit of scheduling. Cleveland is the second Ravens opponent to get two weeks to prepare for them; Chicago was the other. The Browns have quite a gauntlet to run over their final three games: at Green Bay, at Pittsburgh, home with Cincinnati.

Cleveland has stumbled to a 6-6 record to this point, having alternated wins and losses over its last six games. Before that, they were more streaky, winning three straight before losing two in a row. Four of Cleveland’s losses have come by a total of 20 points, but the team has also incurred blowout defeats to Arizona and New England. The Browns’ wins have come by an average margin of just over nine points. The pre-bye 16-10 loss at Baltimore marked the seventh time this year Cleveland has allowed less than 20 points in a game, something it has done in five of its last six games. All of the Browns’ remaining five opponents are currently at .500 or better.

The Browns have scored only 13 points fewer than they have allowed, 254-267. But included in that are wide margins in the second quarter, where they have outscored their opponents by 106-62, and in the fourth, where they have been outpointed, 52-92. The Browns have scored 30 touchdowns this year but have allowed 33, including 22 through the air. Cleveland is well-balanced on offense, having run the ball 346 times and passing it on 394 occasions (including 34 sacks allowed). Browns’ opponents have run the ball 316 times and passed it 418 (including 31 Browns sacks allowed).

Cleveland, in keeping with its mediocre record, is around the middle of the pack as far as turnover ratio is concerned, currently standing at minus-1. The Browns have recorded 14 takeaways, 11 of them interceptions, including four in their first meeting with the Ravens in Baltimore. Cleveland has covered only three of their opponents’ 14 fumbles, two fewer than the Ravens. As far as giveaways are concerned, the Browns have thrown six interceptions and lost seven of their 16 fumbles.

Through Week 13, Cleveland’s 85 penalties rank as the league’s fifth-highest total, 11 behind league leader Dallas. The team has ten false starts and 16 holding calls, six off the league lead in the latter category. However, the Browns have not been called for offensive pass interference all season. On defense, Cleveland’s ten pass interference calls are the league’s fourth-most. Individually, five Browns have more than three penalties, led by defensive tackle Malik McDowell, who has a team-high nine, including two roughing-the-passer calls and two unnecessary roughness penalties. Safety Troy Hill has two pass interference calls, and cornerback Greg Newsome has three.

Through Week 13, the Browns rank 17th in total offense (tied for third rushing at 147.1 yards per game, 24th passing, 19th scoring at 21.2 points per game). Cleveland is possessing the ball for an average of 31:04 per game, the league’s eighth-highest figure. Cleveland has the league’s 22nd-best red-zone touchdown rate but stands at merely 25th in third-down conversions. The Browns are a middling 19th in first downs per game (20.2).

On defense, Cleveland’s rebuilt unit ranks fourth overall, along with 11th against the rush and eighth against the pass. In scoring defense, the Browns are tied for 12th, allowing 22.3 points per game. Cleveland has the league’s sixth-worst red-zone defense and the seventh-worst third-down unit, somewhat unusual for a team that possesses the ball as much as it does. But it does allow only 19.7 first downs per game, the league’s ninth-best rate.

Kevin Stefanski, a 39-year-old Philadelphia native who is the third-youngest active head coach in the league, took over the reins in 2020 as the Browns’ 12th full-time head coach in its expansion-era franchise history (since 1999) and the 22nd overall. Stefanski was under consideration for hire by Cleveland two years ago before the team settled on Freddie Kitchens. Stefanski had spent the previous 14 years working his way up the Minnesota Vikings’ coaching ladder, serving as offensive coordinator just before moving to Cleveland. As head coach of the Browns, Stefanski is 18-12 (including playoffs) and is 0-3 against Baltimore. -Under Stefanski’s leadership in Minnesota, quarterback Kirk Cousins had a career-best passer rating of over 107 and set a franchise record for completions (425). Also, running back Dalvin Cook broke 1000 yards for the first time and was invited to his first Pro Bowl. Stefanski was a defensive back at the University of Pennsylvania as a player. -Notable assistants on Stefanski’s staff include strength and conditioning assistant Evan Marcus (Maryland, 1994), coaching assistant and Bel Air (MD) native Ryan Cordell, run-game coordinator, and former Morgan State head coach Stump Mitchell (1995-98), special teams coordinator Mike Priefer (Navy, 1994-96), and former Oakland Raiders and Nebraska head coach Bill Callahan, the Browns’ offensive line coach.

Fourth-year quarterback and 2018 top overall pick Baker Mayfield is a 6-foot-1, 215-pound Heisman Trophy winner from Oklahoma who will battle with another Heisman-winning quarterback, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Before the last meeting of these teams, he had just returned from missing Baltimore’s game in Chicago with an illness. Mayfield has not had a good statistical season, completing 62.2 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, 29 sacks, and an 89.8 passer rating, above average but still below many other signal-callers that are considered elite. -Mayfield has battled multiple injuries this season, starting with a problem in his left (non-throwing) shoulder but coming down with foot and groin problems as well. In seven career games against Baltimore, Mayfield has lost five of them, completing 57.2 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, eight interceptions, ten sacks, and a passer rating of 82.2. He is backed up by multi-team NFL veteran Case Keenum.

On the ground, the team’s 2018 second-round pick, Nick Chubb (35th overall pick), the cousin of Denver pass rusher Bradley Chubb, has battled through a variety of ailments this fall, including COVID-19 and a calf injury. But Chubb continues to pace one of the league’s top ground games with 867 rushing yards, a 5.8-yard average per carry, and a half-dozen touchdowns, including a 70-yarder. Chubb had two rushing scores against the Ravens in last year’s meeting in Cleveland. A pleasant surprise at the position has been D’Ernest Johnson, in his third year from South Florida, who went undrafted in 2019. He has 320 yards and a pair of scores in limited duty. All told, the Browns have 17 rushing scores, two of them by wideout Jarvis Landry (who has five career rushing scores) and another from Mayfield.

Cleveland’s explosive downfield corps has been thinned out gradually this year. It includes a groin injury incurred by 2020 sixth-round Michigan pick Donovan Peoples-Jones, the trade of disgruntled Odell Beckham, Jr. to the Los Angeles Rams, and the right calf problem suffered by back Kareem Hunt, who has five rushing scores and returned against the Ravens before the bye. -Tight ends Austin Hooper (late of Atlanta), and David Njoku (placed on the COVID list Tuesday) are a respective second and third on the team in catches with 28 and 27, relatively low totals for team leaders. They have combined for five of the team’s 12 receiving touchdowns. Njoku is averaging 15 yards per catch and has a 71-yard touchdown to his credit. Tight end Harrison Bryant (ankle) could be headed to injured reserve, which puts a damper on the Browns’ efforts to run three-tight-end sets. Bryant has 16 receptions this year but hurt his ankle two weeks ago against Baltimore. On the outside, veteran Jarvis Landry, who has at least five catches in nine straight games against Baltimore, leads the squad with 33 receptions (season-high six against Baltimore), and Hunt is fourth with 20; neither of that pair has a touchdown to this point in the season. Landry has had nine straight games against the Ravens with five or more catches. Peoples-Jones has three scores, and Rashard Higgins has one touchdown among his 15 catches. Auburn-bred rookie receiver Anthony Schwartz, taken with the 91st overall pick in this year’s third round, has been out with a concussion, but he could return; he has eight catches this season.

The Browns’ offensive line has gone through some health problems this season – tackles Chris Hubbard and two-time first-team All-Pro Jack Conklin are still on injured reserve. Conklin is out for the season (torn patella tendon) after starting seven games – but it appears four members of the original starting quintet (Conklin being the exception) are back together to pace one of the league’s top ground attacks; however, it has allowed 34 quarterback sacks. Alabama-bred left tackle Jedrick Willis was taken with the tenth overall pick in 2020, but in place of Conklin on the right side is Northwestern’s Blake Hance, a young journeyman. The latter plays mostly inside and has already been with Buffalo, Washington, Jacksonville, and the New York Jets. Rookie James Hudson is the only other right tackle on the roster; he started against Arizona in Week Six. Veterans Joel Bitonio and third-year man Wyatt Teller are the guards, and Players Association president JC Tretter remains at center.

First-round pick (first overall in 2017), two-time Pro Bowl pick, and veteran defensive end Myles Garrett leads a durable, aggressive defensive line, partnered on the other side by multi-team veteran Jadeveon Clowney. Garrett has a career-high 14 of the team’s 31 sacks – second-most in the league – along with a mind-boggling 15 tackles for losses and 28 quarterback hits. Garrett has a sack in seven of his past eight games. For Clowney’s part, the former Houston, Seattle, and Tennessee starter has 3.5 sacks and 13 hits on the quarterback. In the middle of the line are defensive tackles Malik Jackson and Malik McDowell, who have combined for 49 tackles; McDowell has three of the pair’s 3.5 quarterback sacks. They have also combined for 11 quarterback hits, but McDowell leads the team in penalties with nine.

The Browns’ linebacking corps has been bolstered with the addition of five-year Northwestern product Anthony Walker, who played his rookie deal in Indianapolis before coming to the Browns this year. Walker leads the team in tackles with 85 and has knocked down two passes; he also has eight or more tackles in each of his last seven games. Second-year man Jacob Phillips (biceps) is Walker’s backup; he has been out since training camp but has been designated for return. -On either side of the middle are strong-side starter Sione Takitaki and weak-side rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a Notre Dame product taken in the second round (52nd overall) who has 48 tackles and four breakups. Former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith is one of the backups; he has 39 stops with two interceptions, three tackles for losses, and five pass breakups. Owusu-Koramoah’s speed and ability to flow to the ball have made him a handy spy for opposing mobile quarterbacks such as Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

The Browns’ cornerback spots have been filled with two first-round selections, 2021 rookie Greg Newsome, the 26th overall pick from Northwestern, and the 2018 top choice, Denzel Ward, the fourth overall selection from Ohio State. Ward has eight pass breakups and a co-team-high three interceptions, one of which he ran back for a 99-yard touchdown against Cincinnati. Newsome has also broken up seven passes. Backing them up is free-agent acquisition Troy Hill (Los Angeles Rams), who has 42 tackles, fifth-most on the team, four tackles for loss, and three quarterback hits. However, Hill has missed time with a cervical neck sprain. Greedy Williams, the team’s second-round choice from LSU in 2019 (46th overall), has 27 tackles and seven breakups and an interception and forced fumble.

The safety position was undermined last year due to a season-ending Achilles injury to 2020 first-round pick Grant Delpit, an LSU product taken with the 44th overall pick. This year, Delpit has 30 tackles, a sack, and a quarterback hit while being partnered with free safety John Johnson, who is in his fifth NFL season from Boston College and was drafted in 2017 by the Los Angeles Rams (third round, 91st overall). Johnson played through his rookie deal before moving to Cleveland; he has 45 tackles, fourth on the team, with a co-team-high three interceptions (the third coming against the Ravens) and four pass breakups. Ronnie Harrison had a career-high 14 tackles against the Ravens in their recent meeting.

Third-year punter and Scotland native Jamie Gillan, who attended high school in Leonardtown, Maryland, has provided long-sought-after stability at that position. In 42 total punts, Gillan has had only one touchback while placing 15 kicks inside the coffin corner, forcing 12 fair catches along the way. He is grossing 43.9 yards per punt and netting 39.5, rather ordinary figures. The coverage teams are allowing 19.9 yards per kick return (sixth-best) and 8.5 yards per punt return (18th).

Demetric Felton, a rookie from UCLA, has been the Browns’ primary punt returner, running back 30 punts while signaling for only two fair catches all season. He is averaging 7.6 yards per return with no runback longer than 24 yards. On kick-return duty is Anthony Schwartz, a rookie third-round pick (91st overall) from Auburn who is averaging 21.1 yards per runback with no return longer than 35 yards. However, Schwartz has missed time with a concussion, so Felton and veteran Jojo Natson have each returned four kicks in Schwartz’s place.

In the placekicking department, third-year veteran Chase McLaughlin has already had quite the career for someone relatively young. In 2019 alone, the Illinois product kicked for Buffalo, Minnesota, the Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco, and Indianapolis. Last season, he plied his trade with Jacksonville and the New York Jets. So far this season, McLaughlin has missed one extra point and four of 18 field-goal tries. All four of his misses have come from between 40-49 yards, but he is 4-for-4 from beyond 50 yards.

Long snapper Charley Hughlett hasn’t missed a game since winning the job in 2015. But he has been on the COVID list through the team’s bye and his availability for the second Baltimore game is in question. He is the team’s second-longest-tenured player behind guard Joel Bitonio.

Prediction

Cleveland is coming off its bye to play a home game against a team it played just two weeks ago before its idle time, a rather unorthodox bit of scheduling. Be that as it may, the Browns’ offense thought it was getting healthier before its trip to Baltimore. Instead, they lost their right tackle for the year, and their left tackle continued to struggle. Cleveland’s defense played well, but not when it had to be at its best.

The Ravens can taste a third division title in four years and will do just about anything to get it; witness their two-point conversion attempt at Pittsburgh when an extra-point kick would have kept them alive last week. Baltimore has seen its division lead shrink to one game, but its destiny is in its own hands. Its familiarity with this situation and its winning culture should be enough to see it through.

Baltimore 26, Cleveland 13

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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