The final result was 7-3 (70%) in both straight-up picks and against the spread. I lost on SEC, Conference USA, and American Athletic championship games. Here are the full results with text from my prediction blog, published Friday morning.
Friday
CONFERENCE USA, UTSA v. WKU: San Antonio went to Bowling Green during the regular season and beat the Hilltoppers in a high-scoring affair (52-46). This time, WKU will win and cover (-3.5) because UTSA won’t stop WKU’s record-setting QB Bailey Zappe (5000 yards on the year). And take the over while you’re at it (73). One team alone may hit that mark.
CONFERENCE USA PICK — INCORRECT: UTSA 49, WKU 41. BET LOST. OVER/UNDER WON: 90
PACIFIC COAST, Oregon v. Utah: UO has the better record, but I don’t trust or have faith in the Ducks to win a big game. Utah, a team on a roll, hasn’t lost since October. Utes will win and cover (-2.5)
PACIFIC COAST PICK — CORRECT; Utah 38, Oregon 10. BET WON
Saturday
BIG 12, Baylor v. Oklahoma St.: Give Okie State credit for having a nearly perfect year, and let’s also blow kisses to Coach Gundy for his always handsome mullet. He and his ‘Boys are in contention for a slot in the CFP, too. Orange fans are happy! (Just not for very long). Bears will either lose by less than the spread (-5.5) or could (and I think will) beat the Pokes outright.
BIG 12 PICK — CORRECT: Baylor 21, Okla State 16. BET WON
MOUNTAIN WEST, Utah State v. San Diego State: There is something about Logan that not only attracts good athletes, but the mountain air brings out their best–not only in football but in basketball, too. Vegas gives the Aztecs the edge in this one (-6), but I think the Aggies will prevail. USU will win outright.
MOUNTAIN WEST PICK — CORRECT: Utah State 46, SDSU 13 BET WON
SUN BELT, Appalachian State v. Louisiana: There was a time when I’d always side with the Mountaineers. Not these days or on this day, though. The fly in the ointment is that UL lost its head coach to Florida, and you never know what impact that will have on a squad. I think that’s why the odds-makers give ASU a -3 edge. Still, I’ll go with the Ragin’ Cajuns to win outright.
SUN BELT PICK — CORRECT: Louisiana 24, App State 10 BET WON
SOUTHEASTERN, Georgia v. Alabama: Ditto for Alabama. Who in their right mind would pick against Nick and the Tide? Well, it’s 2021, and there’s another sheriff in town. It’s UGA with its Smart coach and a juggernaut defense (giving up <7 points a game). If ‘Bama had trouble scoring TDs against 6-6 Auburn, what do you think will happen against 12-0 Georgia? Not much, I think. UGA covers (-6.5) and wins.
SEC PICK — INCORRECT Alabama 41. Georgia 24 BET LOST
AMERICAN ATHLETIC, Cincinnati v. Houston: Cincy is in the driver’s seat for a CFP slot, and Houston has had one helluva year. I like Luke Fickell as much as I’m not fond of Dana Holgorsen (this WVU alum jumped for joy when he left Morgantown). That said, Dana is in the right spot at the right time, and -10.5 UC won’t hold up in this game. Look for the Cougars to make national headlines and win by at least two scores (even though the ESPN Match-Up predictor gives UH less than a 20% chance to win). Pay special attention to speedster Marcus Jones, who has taken four kicks (two punts/two kickoffs) to the house.
AAC PICK — INCORRECT: Cincinnati 35, Houston 20 BET LOST
BIG TEN, Michigan v. Iowa: Clap for the Hawkeyes because they deserve it. The fact that they have gotten this far is testimony to good coaching, a strong defense, and a weak Big Ten West. Cheer for the Wolverines, too. Not many pegged UM to emerge in the elimination battle for the Big Ten East crown among Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan. Now, ready to battle for the Big Ten crown, Vegas pegs the Wolves as the prohibitive favorite (-11). And why not? Yes, UI forged that tremendous comeback last weekend at Nebraska to get into Saturday’s game, but teams have been doing that against the Huskers all season long. The Hawks’ offense will be hard-pressed to score touchdowns against the Michigan D, and I doubt Iowa will stop the UM running attack. Still, this game may end up being a brawl (Iowa has a penchant for that), but I still think there’s an excellent case to be made for this: go with Michigan to win. After all, there’s a CFP bid hanging in the balance for the Fighting Harbaugh’s.
BIG 10 PICK — CORRECT: Michigan 42, Iowa 3 BET WON
ATLANTIC COAST, Pitt v. Wake Forest: Not familiar names Clemson … Florida State … Miami … Virginia Tech. No, it’s Pitt against (drum roll) Wake Forest. The ACC is doing its part to rival the PAC-12 in the CFP non-factor race. And the Panthers aren’t making their mark with a defense crafted by stop troop mastermind Pat Narduzzi. No. Pitt is making headlines on offense with QB Kenny Pickett and receiver Jordan Addison. Wake Forest? Here’s a surprise (another drum roll, please): compared to the Panthers, the Deacons are scoring more points, have a nearly prolific passing game, have a bit better rushing attack, and the defense is giving up fewer yards. So does Pitt deserve being -3? Yes, I think, primarily because the Iron City boys (not the beer. yuck!) have “it.” Take Pitt.
ACC PICK — CORRECT: Pitt 42, Wake Forest 21 BET WON
MAC, Kent State v. Northern Illinois: -3.5 Kent? Yowza! How can you go against Rocky Lombardi and the men from DeKalb resplendent in their Darth Vader uniforms? Well, the reason is that the home-standing Flashes beat the ‘Vaders’ 52-47 just a few weeks ago. At a neutral site, look for NIU to win in the 4th in what should be another high-scoring affair. At 74.5, take the over.
MAC PICK — CORRECT: NIU 41, KSU 23 BET WON OVER/UNDER LOST: 64
Well Done, Frank. The betting community should hang on to your predictions if they want to score BIG. Thanks for the column.