It’s tough going in the picking business these days. It’s all part of the modern-day NFL landscape. But like in golf, you always get another chance to score. And I need that in a very big way after going 5-8-1 in Week 10, my first losing week of the year (61% overall). So, we move to Week 11 with 15 games on the docket. Only two teams–the Broncos and Rams–are on their bye week. Onward!
NOTE: Published originally on Tu November 16. All games will be played Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
New England 30, Atlanta 17 (Thursday night) – The Patriots are going on the road on a short turnaround, a spot that tripped up Baltimore last week, as well as countless other teams in the years that Thursday games have existed. But the convincing way that New England took care of Cleveland in a key game, coupled with the Falcons’ utter capitulation in Dallas, tells me that this will be another in a long line of midweek stinkers. Mac Jones is clearly the best of this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks, while Matt Ryan, author of a good career (not a great one), seems to be watching the sun starting to set on his time in the league.
Baltimore 27, Chicago 24 – The Ravens are running into a situation where they have to confront their own tendencies, both historical and recent. Historically, they flourish against rookie quarterbacks (like the one they are facing this week) via a variety of blitzes and disguised schemes that take away anything an opposing offense wants to do. But recently, a leaky offensive line, a moribund pass rush, and an otherwise-experienced secondary has had problems covering and tackling, allowing yardage in numbers that has the unit ranked in the league’s bottom third. It’s a bad habit that even bad teams like Miami and Detroit have used to their advantage, and it’s led to games that are either closer than they should be, or, as was the case last week in Miami, outright defeats. Many observers thought the Miami game wouldn’t be close, and on a certain level, they were right. If the Ravens, who seem to flourish more in close games, can apply recent mistakes and play to their historical pedigree, they can get back on track. But in today’s NFL, that’s much easier said than done, especially against a Bears team coming off a bye.
Cleveland 20, Detroit 15 – The Browns, losers in four of their last six, were utterly awful in New England last week. The Browns’ lack of a winning pedigree doomed them again in their blowout loss at Foxborough. I am continually mystified as to why anyone would pick this time to win the division, let alone get to or win a Super Bowl, for the defense has been inconsistent. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who left last week’s game with a knee injury, continues to live below the hype that a first overall pick usually generates. Returning home for this game, can they at least beat the winless Lions, who forged a tie in Pittsburgh last week? I’m going to say yes, but this game will prove to be much more difficult than anyone could have figured when the season began.
Miami 26, New York Jets 13 – Both of these teams don’t figure into the NFL’s bigger playoff picture, but it is a pair that can, and have, upset apple carts all over the league (just ask the Ravens, Titans, and Bengals). But even though the Jets are the home team here, Miami has one edge here that could make all the difference: depth and talent at quarterback. There’s an old saying that tells us, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” The Dolphins put two quarterbacks on the field last week against Baltimore and won by 12 points, so they went against that pattern. This year, Miami, a ten-win team last year, was also tabbed to be a playoff team, and the Jets, most assuredly, were not.
Tennessee 40, Houston 6 – The Titans, the home team for this game, have come through a tough portion of their schedule, beating the Rams on the road and New Orleans at home to run their current win streak to six, the longest active run in the league. The team has also won five straight against 2020 playoff teams. For better or worse, Tennessee is the clear AFC favorite now, even with a loss to the lowly New York Jets on their resume. Will they trip up again against another sorry outfit in Houston? Probably not. Mike Vrabel is not far enough removed from his playing days to rev up his team more intensely to the point where it can be frothing at the mouth enough to put together a complete effort. And even without Derrick Henry, the Titans are enough of a complete team to take care of business when it truly counts. Houston is coming off a bye, but did anyone notice they were gone?
Buffalo 30, Indianapolis 27 – If this game were being played two weeks ago, I’d hop on the chance to take the more consistent Colts, but the Bills seem to have turned their ship around just in time to hit the homestretch with a good stride. Sure, Buffalo got to bow out the sorry Jets, but at least they were able to do that while other teams struggled against the green-clad guys. Buffalo quarterback Carson Wentz is playing his best football since becoming a Colt, but I’ll take Josh Allen, a younger, more mobile quarterback who is playing at home. The Colts have reached the .500 mark for the first time all year, but Buffalo’s defense has ascended to the league’s No. 1 rank.
Carolina 31, Washington 16 – Cam Newton showed how much he still had left in the tank last week at Arizona. He directed an offense that simply blew the Cardinals’ defense right off the field. Washington took advantage of a Tampa Bay team that didn’t look sharp coming out of a bye and forced Tom Brady into several mistakes to get the win. I don’t think that WFT is good enough to do the same to the Panthers, who can now feel much more optimistic about staying in the NFC playoff race with Newton around. Still, Washington last week did two things it usually doesn’t do, sustain drives – including a gem of a 19-play possession – and get a working margin. It hadn’t had a lead of more than six points all season long before last week.
Philadelphia 23, New Orleans 17 – The Saints are still a quality team at 5-4, but without Jameis Winston or Drew Brees at quarterback, they don’t have quite enough to beat the good teams nearly as often as they used to. The Eagles surprised many by winning at Denver last week, pulling away in the second half for emphasis. Now, Philadelphia is back home, trying to at least get into second place in the NFC East Division and a chance at a wild-card berth. The Eagles’ veteran defensive front seven finally seems to be putting it all together.
San Francisco 33, Jacksonville 19 – San Francisco has proven to be much better on the road over the past season and a half. And in many recent seasons, it has proven to be a better team than the likes of Jacksonville. These two trends collide in northeast Florida in what should be one of the most uneventful games of the week. Mind you, I’m not picking the 49ers to get back into the thick of a tough NFC West Division – its sharp performance against the Rams last week notwithstanding – but they should be good enough – and, finally, healthy enough – to win a game like this.
Green Bay 27, Minnesota 18 – These NFC North Division rivals are both coming off wins and will now square off in the Twin Cities in a game that should end what little suspense this division has. It’s a rare home date for the Vikings, who have one of the league’s most inconsistent teams, one that is now taking on a Green Bay outfit that flashed a defense good enough to shut out Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week. As for Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay’s never-boring quarterback, he looked more than a little rusty but still got a win. A full week of practice and the sight of a division rival should bring him closer to normal.
Cincinnati 29, Las Vegas 17 – The slumping Bengals are coming off a bye, and they could be catching the Raiders at exactly the right time last week. Las Vegas surrendered the AFC West Division leak when it got blown out at home by division rival Kansas City, and the team remains home to take on Cincinnati. The Bengals may have believed too much of their own press as they surged to 5-1, but they have had time to reflect and learn their lessons. Plus, with a young bunch of receivers that rivals the Chiefs’ corps that just got finished carving up the Raiders, Cincinnati is well-equipped to go out west and win. The new-coach bump Las Vegas got after Jon Gruden’s resignation has definitely worn off.
Dallas 33, Kansas City 31 – The resurgent Chiefs are heading for their bye next week, but they might petition the league to push it back a bit. Naturally, that won’t happen, but Kansas City’s resurgent defense has permitted about 16 points per game over the past month, a vast improvement. But can they hold down an awakened Dallas offense that was embarrassed against Denver to the point where it pummeled Atlanta, 43-3? In any case, the Chiefs are a sharper team now and have re-taken the AFC West Division lead, a tenuous position in a tough four-team group. Dallas is hitting on all cylinders again and wants a high seed. it could get the top one, and having underrated wideout Michael Gallup healthy again will help. Dallas also got three interceptions last week from each of its starting corners. This could be the weekend’s best game.
Arizona 24, Seattle 10 – The Cardinals had to make do without quarterback Kyler Murray last week and ended up getting blown out at home by Carolina. Now, they hit the road to face a Seahawks team at a crossroads. Russell Wilson has had to miss extended action for the first time in his career. And when he returned at Green Bay, he and his teammates looked utterly feeble in a shutout defeat, the team’s first such loss in ten years. Seattle has had a good run as one of the league’s better teams over the last decade or so, but it may be time to make a few changes on the roster and the coaching staff as well. Meanwhile, if the Cardinals are healthy, they might be ready to say that it’s their time to shine as they head into their bye next week.
Pittsburgh 27, Los Angeles Chargers 26 (Sunday night) – The Chargers can be one of the league’s great teams. For now, it is merely a good one–a squad with two rather pronounced Achilles heels, the kicking game, and run defense. Dalvin Cook was enough to lead a baffling Minnesota team to a victory on the Chargers’ home field. Pittsburgh should have Ben Roethlisberger back for this game, as well as a slowly-improving Najee Harris, as it has inserted itself into the always-tense AFC North Division race.
Tampa Bay 34, New York Giants 23 (Monday night) – The Giants, coming off their bye for this game, have had a poor season. Still, they have taken advantage of teams not taking them seriously enough–to the point where they can scare them (see Kansas City) or beat them (see Las Vegas). Now, they head to Tampa Bay to face a defending Super Bowl championship squad that looked out of sorts in a post-bye loss to a two-win Washington team last week. I don’t anticipate Tom Brady throwing two first-quarter interceptions. Heck, I don’t think he’ll throw two more pickoffs for the first of the month.
