Week 9’s flurry of fluky results did me in (8-6 on the week) and lowered my cumulative mark to 63% (86-50). This week, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, and the New York Giants take their byes.
Pittsburgh 23, Detroit 13 – Good news for Detroit: it is coming off its bye and will get back to work to get its first win. Bad news: they have to go to Pittsburgh. Catching the Steelers at would seem to be precisely the wrong time. Despite a tense, close win over Chicago, the Steelers have fought their way back to get within one game of Baltimore and still want to make a difference in the AFC North Division race. More than likely, the most they can realistically expect is a wild-card berth, but that would exceed the expectations of most observers. Pittsburgh is working on a short week after a Monday-night game, but they were home for that game and will remain at Heinz Field for this one as well.
Cleveland 30, New England 20 – A good battle is on tap here between two teams that are starting to get back into a winning groove. The Patriots, who have climbed to within a half-game of Buffalo in the AFC East, forced a lot of mistakes last week in a road win over a mediocre Carolina team. At the same time, the Browns also took a trip with a few newly-healthy players and further knocked the Bengals off their previously lofty perch. New England will be at home for this one, but I get a feeling that the Browns have a chip on their shoulder and will have something to prove to those counting them out amid the Odell Beckham, Jr. turmoil. Moreover, the Cleveland defense made on-the-ball plays last week, the kind that quickly changed games.
Indianapolis 37, Jacksonville 6 – The Colts, at 4-5, are certainly not where they want to be, but in the more wide-open AFC, they are solidly in the playoff hunt. Now, they are coming off a ten-day mini-bye after a home win over the woeful New York Jets. They get to sleep in their beds before facing another pathetic team, one that hasn’t been able to parlay their win in London over Miami into any forward momentum. As bad as Jacksonville is, it is still an AFC South Division opponent for Indianapolis, so a win helps the Colts stay in touch with Tennessee in the division and keep wild-card hopes alive as well. And with the Titans having lost Derrick Henry for nearly the balance of the season, every step forward the Colts can take will help. Oh, what about the Jags’ 9-6 win over Buffalo last week? I see that, frankly, as nothing more than a fluke.
Buffalo 40, New York Jets 25 – The Jets are coming off a ten-day mini-bye and now start a stretch that will see them play four games at home in the next five-week stretch. But in reality, none of that will matter as they take on the rampaging Bills, the AFC East Division pace-setters that should be able to easily win this game to re-establish their credibility as a playoff and Super Bowl contender, last week’s incredible loss in Jacksonville notwithstanding. And with the Jets having had to cycle through quarterbacks both injured (Mike White) and ineffective (Zach Wilson), not even Super Bowl-winning signal-caller Joe Flacco is being called on to help out, having been a healthy inactive last week at Indianapolis.
Tennessee 27, New Orleans 20 – If nothing else, you have to admire the resilience and resourcefulness of the Titans, who were impressive on the road against a good Rams team last week. Now, Tennessee comes home to take on the Saints, floundering at the quarterback position, a dilemma that cost them a game against Atlanta of all teams. This should be a college football-type battle between two Southern towns without marching bands, cheerleaders who have a chemistry lab in the morning, and possible NCAA probation. But the Titans seem to have more depth and moxie to their game, and that should serve them well here.
Dallas 36, Atlanta 17 – There were two truly fluky results around the NFL last week–the Jaguars’ home win over the suddenly-punchless Bills and the Cowboys’ home loss to Denver, ending Dallas’ six-game winning streak. It wasn’t just a loss, and it was a game that saw Dallas, with a healthy Dak Prescott, fall behind by 30-0 before scoring 16 unanswered points. But I don’t know that kind of pattern repeating itself (at least not with the Cowboys at home again.) After all, Prescott is back with an impressive passel of receivers, not to mention one of the game’s best and deepest offensive lines. And the Cowboys’ defense, at least to me, has improved enough to the point where this team should be able to beat any team in the league.
Tampa Bay 34, Washington 16 – This playoff rematch from last year features two teams coming off their respective bye weeks. Tampa Bay had to sweat a little in January before finally subduing the Football Team, which was passed by Taylor Heinicke, a quarterback nobody knew at the time. Everybody knows him and his teammates now, and the results have been devastating for Washington–a team that has reverted to the kind of club that can’t get out of its way. There won’t be many people at FedEx Field to see this, and they’re doing themselves a favor by staying away. Heinicke has promise, but he is up against Tom Brady, so this result is highly predictable.
Denver 24, Philadelphia 13 – The Broncos are heading for their bye week, and they would love to go into it with a second straight win over an NFC East team. They throttled Dallas on the road last week, and they now return home to face a Philadelphia team that dropped a close game at home to the Los Angeles Chargers. Last week’s win was the Broncos’ first against an upper-echelon team, the kind of squad they couldn’t handle in September and October. Philadelphia is most definitely not that kind of team, and it will likely struggle here.
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Minnesota 24 – The Vikings have been walking a high wire in most of their games, similar to Baltimore, a place where they lost in overtime last week. Minnesota has lost five times by a total of 18 points, and at one point, they held the lead in all of those games. The Vikings, who were missing four defensive starters in Baltimore (including standout safety Harrison Smith, who will miss this game as well while on the COVID list), have a maddening habit of starting fast in games then stagnating as opposing defenses adjust to them. It’s debatable whether the Chargers’ defense can do the same, especially its bottom-ranked run-stopping unit. But Los Angeles was resilient enough to pull out a close win in Philadelphia last week, and the Bolts return home for this one against a Viking team that is only beginning a run of five road games in seven weeks, the kind of schedule that could knock them out of the NFC race for good.
Green Bay 17, Seattle 16 – The Seahawks, coming off their bye, won’t have Matt Hasselbeck at the coin toss yelling, “We want the ball, and we’re going to score!” He said that in a long-ago overtime playoff game at Lambeau Field before throwing a game-ending interception run back for a touchdown. Usually, I would never pick against the Pack at home, but its seven-game winning streak was snapped as it looked like a different team without Aaron Rodgers at Kansas City last week, and the game was still winnable due to the Chiefs’ 2021 troubles. Can Jordan Love raise the level of his game enough to win this one? Hard to say since the Seahawks have had rough going without Russell Wilson, who has been cleared to play but is 0-4 at Lambeau Field.
Arizona 31, Carolina 13 – The buzzards were circling the Cardinals last week, preaching that the team’s first loss and Kyler Murray’s absence would doom them against a San Francisco side healthier than it had been. But I said the Cards would come through unscathed, and they did (partially because the ‘Niners are terrible at home). Running back, James Conner nicely picked up the slack with two rushing touchdowns and a scoring catch. Now, the Cards are home again versus a Panthers squad that can’t find its way on offense, even with Christian McCaffrey having returned. This team is proof positive that the quarterback position is one of the most important in all sports, as Sam Darnold continues to flounder with two touchdowns and eight interceptions in his last five games, passing for 207 or fewer yards in all five. Backup PJ Walker might have to be called upon.
Las Vegas 26, Kansas City 19 (Sunday night) – The Chiefs finally got a win last week, but they have Green Bay to thank for gift-wrapping it for them with the maelstrom of controversy surrounding Aaron Rodgers. In other words, Kansas City didn’t look all that improved despite the win–even with it coming at home. It’s back on the road against a decades-old archrival in a clash that is just as intense as Dallas-Washington or Chicago-Green Bay. The Raiders felt they had a new lease on life without Jon Gruden but then promptly turned around and lost to the resurgent New York Giants. But this week they are at home and they are executing better than the Chiefs are these days.
Los Angeles Rams 27, San Francisco 19 (Monday night) – The 49ers are home again, but that has been a detriment over the last two seasons; they are 0-4 at Levi’s Stadium this year and have lost ten of their last 11 there. Ouch! Now here comes a Rams team heading for its bye week and eager to play with fewer mistakes and more consistency than they did at home against Tennessee last week. It’s a second straight prime-time game for the Rams, a clear candidate to play in a Super Bowl that will be contested at its own SoFi Stadium. (I picked the Rams to get there before the season began).
