Ravens v. Colts: Sizing Up Indianapolis + Game Prediction

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Lots of history here, of course, including plenty of bad memories for Baltimore’s NFL faithful. That fateful day in 1984 is carved forever into local history. But that was then, and this is 2021. The Indy Colts are struggling, and the Ravens are not. ‘Nuff said.


WHAT: Week Five vs. Indianapolis Colts
WHEN: 8:15 p.m. (EST); Monday, October 11
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (70,745)
RECORDS: Colts, 1-3; Ravens, 3-1
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Colts lead, 8-5. The Ravens are 4-3 against the Colts in Baltimore, including an active two-game winning streak. Baltimore is 2-1 against the Colts in the postseason, including 1-1 in Baltimore. The Ravens have won four of the last five overall meetings between the teams, including their first-ever win at Indianapolis in 2020, breaking a five-game losing streak at the Colts’ home.
TV: ESPN; Locally, WMAR-TV, Channel 2 (Steve Levy, Louis Riddick, Brian Griese, booth; Lisa Salters, sidelines); RADIO: Locally, WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Obafemi Ayanbadejo, booth)
REFEREE: Land Clark

About the Colts

The Colts name originally appeared in 1947, the second season of the now-defunct All-America Football Conference, when the Miami Seahawks moved to Baltimore, complete with green and silver uniforms that were changed to blue and white after one season. The team was renamed the Colts in a fan contest held by the Baltimore News-Post (which became the News-American); it was won by a Middle River man who was a self-described avid horse racing fan.

The AAFC version of the Colts joined the NFL in a 1950 merger but lost 11 of 12 games and went bankrupt; the name reappeared in 1953 when new owner Carroll Rosenbloom took over the folded Dallas Texans franchise and moved it to Baltimore. That was the team that played in Charm City until March 1984, when it relocated to Indianapolis. The Colts are now playing their 38th season in Indianapolis after 32 NFL campaigns in Baltimore (1950, 1953-83).

In the franchise’s NFL history, spanning 68 completed seasons, the Colts have made 28 postseason appearances (ten in Baltimore), a total that is the sixth-most in league history. That total consists of 16 division titles (five in Baltimore) and 12 wild-card berths (five in Baltimore). The Colts have appeared in the AFC Championship Game seven times (tied for fourth-most in the conference) and have a 3-4 record (1-1 in Baltimore). Those three wins got them into Super Bowls 5 (Baltimore over Dallas), 41 (Indianapolis over Chicago), and 44 (New Orleans over Indianapolis). Indianapolis is the only AFC South Division team to reach the Super Bowl since 2000 and has done so just twice.

As one might expect, the Colts-Ravens series has been an intense one. The Ravens had a chance to exorcise Baltimore’s demons in their first year of existence (1996). Still, they lost a Sunday-night game in Indianapolis even though a Baltimore-bred receiver (Calvin Williams, Dunbar High) scored for the Ravens that night. Two years later, the Colts played their first game in Baltimore since the move, and the Ravens rallied from a significant deficit to pull out a 38-31 win over a Colts team led by rookie quarterback Peyton Manning dual-threat back Marshall Faulk.

On another Sunday-night telecast, the Colts won in Baltimore in the 2005 season opener, the night quarterback Kyle Boller got hurt, and the home fans cheered as he lay on the turf. The teams’ three playoff meetings were highlighted by the Colts’ 15-6 Divisional win at Baltimore over the second-seeded Ravens after the 2006 season and Baltimore’s lopsided home win in the 2012 wild-card round, the launching pad for its Super Bowl 47 run. That game was the final one in Baltimore for eventual Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis.

With an 8-5 head-to-head regular-season edge over the Ravens, Indianapolis is one of nine teams with a lifetime advantage over Baltimore since the last team was founded in 1996. The Ravens are tied with Seattle and Minnesota, and just last week, edged ahead of Denver, 7-6. Baltimore is leading in its lifetime series with 20 NFL teams and can make it 21 by beating the Vikings next month.

Indianapolis began its 2021 campaign with two home games against teams from the rugged NFC West (Seattle, Los Angeles Rams) before embarking on a three-game road swing, of which Monday’s game in Baltimore will be the last. Indianapolis returns home for five games in seven weeks before the team’s very late bye week (December 12). The defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers happen to be the Colts’ interconference placement opponent; they will visit Indianapolis on November 28.

The Colts began their season slowly, and it is the way they have started games as well, getting outscored in the first quarter by a 24-3 margin through four weeks. They have outscored their foes by 51-31 over the middle two quarters but have faltered in the fourth, getting outscored by a 42-29 count. Quick strikes have worked against the Colts; the team has allowed 11 passing touchdowns, which is why they have yielded only one on the ground.

The offense has run the ball 107 times and passed it 153 (including sacks allowed), but the Colts’ 33 rushes last week in their first win was a season-high. Colt opponents have been more consistently better-balanced, running the ball 109 times and passing it 118 (including sacks allowed).

Indianapolis has the NFL’s third-best turnover ratio figure at plus-4. The Colts have recorded eight takeaways on defense, tied for the league’s fourth-most with New Orleans. The pass defense has recorded only three interceptions (two by the secondary). Still, the Colts have forced seven opposition fumbles and recovered five of them, tied with Arizona for the NFL lead. Individually, four different players have fumble recoveries, led by reserve Ashton Dulin (two).

The Colts have played relatively clean football, having been charged with only 17 accepted penalties through four games, an average of just over four per contest. That is the lowest total in the AFC and second-lowest in the league (Los Angeles Rams, 12). The Colts’ total is eight fewer than that of Baltimore (25). Opponents, as a result, have only four first downs via penalties in four games. The Colts offensive line has been called for just two false starts and three holding penalties. On defense, there have been no offsides or illegal contact calls against the Colts. Individually, receiver Zach Pascal has been called for holding three times, while cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been twice flagged for pass interference.

Through four games, the Colts are ranked 21st in total offense (15th rushing, 25th passing, tied for 21st scoring at 20.8 points per game). Indianapolis’ 32:36 possession-time average is the NFL’s seventh-best, but the team has had lots of trouble finishing drives with a red-zone touchdown rate that ranks as the league’s third-worst. The team’s third-down conversion percentage ranks 23rd.

Defensively, Indianapolis is ranked eighth overall (15th vs. rush, ninth vs. pass, tied for 16th scoring by allowing 24.3 points per game). The Colts are allowing third-down conversions on 39 percent of opponents’ chances, a respectable 12th in the league, but the red-zone defense is tied for the league’s 11th-worst. Indianapolis can claim the league’s seventh-best rate in allowing first downs, yielding just 19 per game.

Since the start of the 2020 season, the Colts have had the third-ranked run defense. Since the beginning of 2018, Indianapolis has allowed only four 100-yard rushers in 52 games. In all four cases, the back was Tennessee’s Derrick Henry.

Former University of Maryland quarterback and 14-year NFL veteran Frank Reich (overall record 30-25) was named the Colts’ head coach in 2018. Reich is the 21st coach in franchise history and the 11th to coach exclusively in Indianapolis. He was only the third coach in team history to win a playoff game in his debut season with the franchise. Reich played for Buffalo, Carolina, the New York Jets, and Detroit, and he coached with the Colts, Arizona Cardinals, and San Diego Chargers before becoming Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator. His predecessor in Indianapolis, former Ravens defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano, was fired in 2017 after six seasons, opening the door for Reich’s hiring. Notable assistants working under Reich include defensive line coach and Baltimore native Brian Baker (Maryland player and coach, 1981-85), offensive quality control coach Jerrod Johnson (Ravens staff, 2016), and running backs coach Tom Rathman, who played fullback for the San Francisco 49ers for eight years, winning two Super Bowls.

After one season being piloted by longtime veteran Philip Rivers, the Colts, working their way through the post-Andrew Luck era, swung a trade to acquire the services of former Philadelphia starter Carson Wentz, currently dealing with a pair of injured ankles. Wentz, the second overall pick from North Dakota State in 2016, was the Eagles’ 2017 starter until a knee injury in Los Angeles kept him out of the team’s run to the Super Bowl 52 title.

Currently, Wentz is completing 63.8 percent of his passes with five touchdowns, one interception, ten sacks, and a passer rating of 92.1. Last year, Wentz led the NFL with 24 turnover-worthy plays (Pro Football Focus), but he has no such plays this year. In two career games against Baltimore (both losses while with Philadelphia), Wentz has completed just 52 percent of his passes with two scores, one pickoff, and seven sacks. His passer rating is 68.3.

The Colts’ running game seemed revived at Miami last week, with a season-high 33 carries as a team. One of the league’s best young running backs, fifth-year veteran Marlon Mack, was lost for the 2020 season to a torn Achilles tendon. But the Colts fortuitously drafted Wisconsin All-America standout Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the 2020 draft (41st overall). His 6174 yards as a Badger are the sixth-most in top-level college football history; he also scored 50 touchdowns.

The Colts are trying to trade Mack, but he has been active on game days this year, but Taylor has been bothered with a minor knee ailment. He still has a 4.7-yard average and one touchdown after running for a season-high 103 yards at Miami last week, his fourth career 100-yard game. Backup Nyheim Hines has 18 carries and a touchdown but no rush longer than nine yards.

Third-year receiver and former Ohio State star Parris Campbell missed most of last year with MCL and PCL tears in his knee and has just five receptions this year. But an even more significant loss is four-time Pro Bowl pick TY Hilton, who had a groin problem last year and is on short-term injured reserve with a neck disc problem. The team’s two leading receivers are four-year veteran Zach Pascal (Old Dominion) and Michael Pittman, Jr., who worked through a lower leg injury in 2020. Pittman leads the team in snaps (252), with a team-high 23 receptions. Pascal is second with 15, a ten-yard average, and three touchdowns. Hines and Taylor are following with a combined 25 catches; Hines is particularly good after the catch, with a 36-yard play to his credit.

The tight end corps is a robust one, with fourth-year player Mo Alie-Cox and ninth-year tight end Jack Doyle, a two-time Pro Bowl honoree. This season, Alie-Cox has just six catches, but two of them have gone for touchdowns, both of them against Miami in his first career multi-touchdown game. The Colts’ slumping offense has just five receiving touchdowns. For his part, Doyle has ten catches but has not reached the end zone as yet. Both tight ends are averaging approximately 12 yards per reception.

Indianapolis’ offensive line has been hampered by the loss of Notre Dame guard and dependable stalwart Quenton Nelson (high-ankle sprain), who will miss the next three weeks on short-term injured reserve. Chris Reed, a six-year veteran on his fourth team, will replace Nelson. Playing alongside Reed is left tackle Eric Fisher, the 2013 first overall pick who spent nine years in Kansas City before moving to Indianapolis as a free agent; he missed Week One as he recovered from an Achilles injury. Former Alabama center Ryan Kelly was the Colts’ 2016 first-round pick (18th overall), and right guard Mark Glowinski (West Virginia) is a 6-foot-4 seven-year veteran and former Seattle Seahawk. Right tackle Julien Davenport was a 2017 fourth-round pick by Houston who has also played in Miami, but he is a stopgap after starter Braden Smith was lost with a foot injury.

The Colts, whose defense held Miami to minus-7 yards in the second quarter last week, had to replenish their defensive line in the offseason once veteran end Justin Houston saw his contract run out; he eventually signed with Baltimore. They drafted Michigan standout Kwity Paye in the first round (21st overall), who had to leave the Colts’ Week Three loss with a hamstring injury; he did not play in Miami. Nose tackle Grover Stewart, a 2017 fourth-rounder, slid outside to pick up the slack, but he is best used in the middle of the line. Al-Quadin Muhammad (1.5 sacks) is on the other end; he was a 2017 sixth-round pick by New Orleans (196th overall).

DeForest Buckner and Tyquan Lewis are listed as inside players, but Lewis can play anywhere along the line. Buckner is a former San Francisco first-round pick with 19 tackles, a sack, and five quarterback hits, and Stewart has a sack and three hits on the passer. Former Dallas starter Antwuan Woods has been slowed by a hamstring injury. Still, he lends depth, as does ex-Tampa Bay waiver pickup Khalil Davis, a 2020 sixth-round pick by the Buccaneers (194th overall), and Kemeo Turay, who had his first career multi-sack game last week.

At the linebacker level, Indianapolis’ main tacklers are led by middle linebacker and 2019 third-round pick Bobby Okereke (89th overall), who has a team-high 28 total tackles as well as one of the team’s eight sacks. Weak-side starter Darius Leonard is in his fourth year with the Colts after being a 2018 second-round pick (36th overall) and has racked up 25 tackles (the team’s second-most), two fumble recoveries, two tackles for losses, and three pass breakups, as well as one of the team’s three interceptions. Last week, Leonard recorded his sixth career fumble recovery, and he had one in his last game against Baltimore (along with 15 tackles). Zaire Franklin is the new strong-side starter this year; he is a 2018 seventh-round pick (235th overall) from Syracuse with five tackles this season.

Two listed starters in the Colts’ secondary were inactive due to injuries last week at Miami, cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, a 2019 second-round pick from Temple, and strong safety Khari Willis (20 tackles, half-sack). Second-year safety Julian Blackmon (23 tackles, third on the team) holds down that position, but instead, he is paired with former starter Andrew Sendejo, an 11-year NFL veteran on his sixth team. The cornerbacks are paced by Xavier Rhodes, a 2013 first-round pick by Minnesota (25th overall) who is a three-time Pro Bowl pick in his second year with the Colts, and converted nickel back Kenny Moore (21 tackles, interception, two pass breakups), playing outside more often these days, especially with the absence of Ya-Sin.

Four-year NC State alum Nyheim Hines is the team’s punt returner; he was one of the league’s best last season, but he has only run back three punts for an NFL-low two-yard average this season with three fair catches. Kick returner Isaiah Rodgers, a second-year player from Massachusetts, has six of the Colts’ seven returns in that category, averaging 23.7 yards per return with a long of 41. The Colts’ coverage units are rather mediocre, each ranking in the middle of the pack; they are allowing eight yards per punt return and 20 yards on kick runbacks.

Second-year kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, signed as an undrafted rookie in 2020, had a stellar college career at Georgia, where he converted 82.5 percent of his field-goal tries, a school record. His 440 total points are the second-most in Southeastern Conference history. Blankenship was a first-team All-America pick and the Lou Groza Award winner as the nation’s best kicker. He has missed just one field-goal attempt (9-for-10) and none of his six extra-point tries.

Punter Rigoberto Sanchez is in his fifth season out of Hawaii after signing as an undrafted rookie in 2017. He is grossing 47.8 yards punt and netting 42.6. He has not incurred a touchback and has five coffin-corner kicks in 14 tries. Sanchez has not had a punt blocked in 2021, but he did have one blocked last season.

Prediction

The Colts’ poor start has them in desperate straits, while the Ravens are simply trying to build and maintain momentum and consistency. Indianapolis is a wounded animal, but it is the slowly-healing Baltimore roster closer to looking beastly. On many obvious levels, this should be a satisfying, comfortable home win.

Baltimore 30, Indianapolis 17

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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