On Saturday, I identified what the ‘Zags needed to do and avoid in Monday’s final. It was a tall order, indeed. But I still picked Gonzaga to win–a foolhardy call, the result of allowing heart to overrule head.
Warning signs I wrote about on Saturday…
Gonzaga doesn’t perform well against the spread. You would think a 31-0 squad would prevail consistently, but that hasn’t been the case. The ‘Dogs failed to cover 16 times this year, including Saturday’s national semi-final (-14.5) and again on Monday night (-4.5).
The ‘Zags generally shoot well from the field, but they are not a good three-point shooting team. Against UCLA, the ‘Zags shot nearly 60% from the field, and the Bulldogs shot 51% against Baylor. But in those games, they were 12-38 (32%) from three, and GU shot <30% on Monday night.
Gonzaga is getting outrebounded. A six rebound differential v. UCLA grew to a stifling 16-rebound differential against the Bears.
‘Zags are an up-and-down foul-shooting bunch. GU shot 60% against UCLA, and that performance had to improve against Baylor. It did (71%), but the Bears shot even better at 89%.
Putting it all together, on Saturday I wrote: “If the Bears win on Monday night, I predict it will be because they did what UCLA did on Saturday night–win the battle of the boards (outcome…they did), get the ‘Zags in foul trouble (they did with four GU players recording 3 or more fouls ), and shoot well from the field (they did reasonably well at 45%). GU must control Mark Vital on the boards (they didn’t, N=11), contain Jared Butler’s shooting (they didn’t, 22 points), Drew Timme, Jalen Suggs, and Corey Kispert can’t spend time on the bench with foul trouble (ok in that regard…all three players logged more than 30 minutes). They must hit from the charity stripe (best of all the performance indicants).”
Reasonableness says the issues I pointed out would likely be too much for Gonzaga to overcome against a uber-talented, athletic team like Baylor. So, what gives? I wanted the ‘Zags to win even though my head told me Baylor would be too strong.
That’s a misstep for someone who studies the stats and makes calls based on the numbers. It won’t happen again.
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Final Record: I was 1-2 on the Final Weekend (33%, missed on Houston and Gonzaga), 3-1 in the Elite 8 (75%, missed on the Wolverines), and 5-2 in the Sweet 16 (71%, missed on Loyola and Alabama, and didn’t pick USC v. Oregon)–for an overall record of 64%. The day after Selection Sunday, I picked Gonzaga, Baylor, Alabama, and Illinois to make the Final Four (50%). I picked Baylor-Alabama to play for the National Championship (50%), with Alabama to win. My best/worst year was 2005 when I picked all four Final Four teams–Michigan State, Illinois, Louisville, and North Carolina–but went 0-3 during the final weekend.
A month before the tournament (as I do each year), I picked 13 mid-major bracket-busters that I thought could surprise major teams in the opening round/opening weekend. Ten of the 13 squads made the tournament. Of those, one team was disqualified from participating (academic issues, SF Austin), and two others (Belmont, Wright State) won their respective conference regular-season championships but did not win their conference tournament championships. Neither of those teams received an at-large bid. Nine teams played opening/first-round games (VCU stood down with COVID), and three won–Drake, Loyola, and Abilene Christian–for a 33% win rate. My best year was 2019, when 54% of my Baker’s Dozen picks won opening weekend games.
