Will surprises continue in the Sweet 16? (Hint: I think not.)
One of the great things about the annual tournament is that things rarely unfold as expected. It’s not just the big upset here and there (that always happens). But it’s also about how conventional wisdom gets turned on its head. Take this year. The Big Ten and Big 12 were considered to be the best conferences in the land. Right? Well, perhaps not–at least not as measured by tournament competition. Only one team from each conference is left standing–Michigan and Baylor.
Conversely, the PAC-12 and SEC were at the bottom of the so-called Power 6 conferences. Right? Well, surprise, again. Six of the 16 quarterfinalists are from those two conferences–Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, and USC from the West, and Arkansas and Alabama in the South.
The other eight quarterfinalists come from an array of playing platforms–familiar and unfamiliar both. Only two schools–upstart Florida State and zone-zonking Syracuse represent ‘the mighty’ ACC, which had an off-year (consider how Duke and UNC played). Villanova and Creighton are in from the Big East. Gonzaga (a national power playing in the mid-major West Coast Conference) and Loyola (from another mid-major league, the Missouri Valley Conference) made the quarterfinals, along with Houston (American Athletic Conference) and the biggest surprise of them all, Oral Roberts, which was a regular-season also-ran in the mid-major Summit League.
But while it seems topsy-turvy–and in many ways it is–when the smoke clears, it’s not unusual to find familiar names playing on the final weekend. This year, I picked Illinois, Baylor, Alabama, and Gonzaga to make the Final Four, and three of those four teams are still in the hunt.
But will those three teams get to the Promised Land? Well, doing so requires winning this weekend.
On Saturday, I don’t see a hobbled Villanova team having enough to beat balanced Baylor. Jared Butler leads the Bears in points (17 a game), Mark Vital in rebounds (7 a game), and Davion Mitchell in assists (5+ a game). Maceo Teague adds points, and both Butler and Mitchell are ball-hawks, averaging two steals a game. Vegas pegs Baylor -7, and ESPN has the Bears’ win-odds at 66-to-34%. Bears in this one.
In Sunday games, a potential mismatch looms in Creighton v. Gonzaga. The undefeated ‘Zags (-13.5) are loaded. Just like Baylor, GU has a well-rounded bunch of players. Corey Kispert is the points leader (19+ a game), Drew Kimme leads in rebounds (7+ a game), and Jalen Suggs is the assists man (4+ a game). All three of those guys score in double figures. Joel Ayayi does, too. No apparent weaknesses afflict the crew from Spokane. ‘Zags advance.
And how about the Crimson Tide of Alabama, which is my pick to win the national championship.
Coach Nate Oats, who powered the Buffalo Bulls to national prominence, is the biggest reason I like this team. Remember the Bulls’ stunning 20-point win against #4 seed Arizona in the 2018 tournament? Oats is doing in Tuscaloosa what he did in Buffalo.
What about the other games?
Saturday Games
Oregon State-Loyola: In February, I picked LUC to make the tournament and advance. They’ve done just that. The thing that stands out for me is how they play the game–the way it should be played. Solid defensively and with offensive alacrity, this team reminds me of those dominating John Wooden-led UCLA teams. In contemporary terms, Porter Moser reminds me of Nate Oats. Honestly, I thought the Ramblers’ run would end last weekend against Illinois. I was wrong. Dead wrong. LU not only won, but it also beat UI in every major statistical category–shooting better, getting more rebounds, assists, and steals, and having fewer turnovers.
While each game represents a different set of challenges for LU, the outcome always comes down to how three players perform–center Cameron Krutwig and guards Lucas Williamson and Braden Norris.
Oral Roberts-Arkansas: When I did my annual review of mid-major teams that might shock in the tournament, I looked at ORU and said, “Naw!” I was wrong. of course, but who could have seen things differently? The Golden Eagles weren’t playing well, let alone dominating the so-so Summit League, where they finished in fourth place. ORU was 11-10 before launching its post-season run that has now stretched to seven consecutive wins. On the other side, Arkansas finished second in the SEC, 2.5 games behind the champion Tide. Give credit to Oral Roberts and tip your hat to Arkansas, but no matter which team wins on Saturday (I predict it will be the Hogs), I don’t believe it can beat the presumptive winner on the other side of the bracket, namely, Baylor, in the Elite 8. (Arkansas -11, ESPN 92% winning prediction). I like the Hogs.
Syracuse-Houston: ‘Cuse fans never, ever want to hear this, but I’ll say it:
“The best thing the Orange has going for it in the tournament isn’t its iconic head coach or any of its players. It’s the zone defense.”
Sunday Games
Michigan-Florida State: Michigan has rediscovered its mojo after losing Isaiah Livers to injury, and I don’t think the Seminoles match up well with the surging Wolverines. Hunter Dickinson is this year’s stud in the middle for UM–he’s a freshman at that–and he leads the team in both points and rebounds. Graduate transfer and sparkplug Mike Smith leads the teams in assists, and German-import Franz Wagner can get points when the team needs points. Eli Brooks fills that bill, too. Vegas has UM -2.5, and I think that’s a bit light. Blue wins.
Oregon-USC: The Trojans are favored (-2.5) in a game that pits conference rivals. Because of COVID, the teams played only once this year, and USC prevailed. I’m going to punt on this one because I haven’t followed the teams closely, and I also believe that the outcome will depend on who shows up. My gut says it will be the Ducks, but…. No matter which team wins, I don’t think it stands a chance in the Elite 8 match-up against my presumptive Sweet 16 winner, Gonzaga.
Enjoy the games!
