In mid-February, I picked mid-major teams that could surprise on Opening Weekend. Here are real-time results. Drake won outright, Colgate lost/didn’t cover, Loyola won/covered, Winthrop lost/didn’t cover, UNCG lost/covered, St Bona lost/didn’t cover, UCSB lost/covered, GCU lost/covered, VCU withdrew, COVID, ACU won outright.
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My 13 picks excelled this year. Only three teams failed to make the NCAA field. Two teams–Wright State and Belmont–won their respective conference regular-season championships but didn’t win the tournament crown and take automatic bids. Neither received an at-large bid, either. The third team, Stephen F. Austin, was barred by the NCAA from postseason play for academic deficiencies.
Here’s how the other ten turned out. (School, conference, record, NCAA NET Ranking as of March 14, and conference tournament performance)
Loyola (Missouri Valley), 24-4, #10: Loyola beat Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship game
UNC Greensboro (Southern), 21-8, #84: UNCG beat Mercer in the Southern Conference Championship game
Winthrop (Big South), 23-1, #55: Winthrop beat Campbell in the Big South Conference Championship game
UC Santa Barbara (Big West), 22-4, #54: UCSB beat UC Irvine in the Big West Conference game
Abilene Christian (Southland), 23-4, #74: ACU beat Nicholls in Southland Conference championship game
Grand Canyon (WAC), 17-6, #107: GCU beat New Mexico State in the Western Athletic Conference championship game
Colgate (Patriot), 14-1, #9: CU beat Loyola (MD) in the Patriot League championship game
St. Bonaventure (Atlantic 10), 16-4, #23: SBU beat VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference championship game
Drake (Missouri Valley), 24-3, #45: Drake lost to Loyola in the Missouri Valley Championship game, received an at-large bid
Virginia Commonwealth (Atlantic 10), 19-7, #37: VCU lost to SBU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game, received an at-large bid.
The NCAA computer ranks Colgate and Loyola in the Top 10 nationally but, when the dust settles, the NCAA Tournament is all about seeds and pairings. And here’s how things turned out this year.
EAST BRACKET
#9 ST. BONAVENTURE v. #8 LSU: The Bonnies are on the top of their game with mobile scorers who can hit the three, create shots, and drive to the hoop. The starting five, all of whom play 30+ minutes a game, are led by Kyle Lofton, Osun Osunniyi, and Jaylen Adaway. LSU is a surprise team (lost to ‘Bama in the SEC Championship game) and they play in arguably the weakest of the Power 5 conferences.
#12 UNCG v. #5 Florida State: I like UNCG but don’t like the match-up–except for Isaiah Miller, who can play against any team. I think Greensboro will hang with the Seminoles for a time, but I believe FSU will prove to be too strong in the end–unless Miller and UNCG’s big men, Mohammed Abdulsalam and Angelo Allegri, especially, are at the top of their games. It won’t take long to see if that happens.
#14 ABILENE CHRISTIAN v. #3 Texas: Ask ten people to spell ‘Abilene,’ and most will probably misspell it. What’s more, perhaps none of them has heard of “the Christian school” there. But believe me when I say this is an excellent team that doesn’t have quit in it–offensively or defensively (#7 nationally in scoring defense). A speedy backcourt (Reggie Miller, Coryon Mason, and Damien Daniels) compliments a solid frontcourt (Kolton Kohl and Joe Pleasant). And that could spell trouble for the up-and-down ‘Horns, a team that can be good, average, and…well…something worse. Besides, this is ACU’s opportunity to own state bragging rights.
MIDWEST BRACKET
#8 LOYOLA v. #9 Georgia Tech: This is the best Tech team in years (winner of the ACC tournament). But what does that say? The winner of the country’s premier college basketball conference is a 9-seed. Who would have ever thought that possible? Loyola is a better team. The Ramblers are on a six-game winning streak and have Sister Jean on their side, too. The fly in the ointment for LUC is how well center Cameron Krutwig will do against Power 5 competition. Krutwig leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists–an unusual trifecta for a big man. We’ll know the answer soon into the game.
SOUTH BRACKET
#12 WINTHROP v. #5 Villanova: One-loss Winthrop is off the national radar, but that doesn’t mean anything when it comes to this game. Villanova is hobbled by injuries–a situation that reared its head in the Big East Tournament—and it’s a big reason I like this match-up. Like Loyola, the Eagles have one player who leads the team in all the major categories. He’s Chandler Vaudrin. But–and there’s a big but here–he had a very average game v. Campbell in the Big South finale, scoring only 7 points in 27 minutes. DJ Burns stepped up big time (22 points in 21 minutes), as did Kyle Zunic (13 points in 20 minutes). WU will need multiple contributors to take down the Wildcats.
#14 COLGATE v. #3 Arkansas: The Hogs, like LSU, had a good year, but they play in a below-average major conference. Consistency is not its forte, while even-level play is Colgate’s signature. The proof of the pudding is CU’s 13-game win streak (albeit against only Patriot League teams). I love the play of crafty guard Jordan Burns and big man, Keegan Records. Besides, Colgate ranks #2 in the nation (behind Gonzaga) in scoring offense, and it’s 7th nationally in field-goal percentage. If the ‘Gate gets off to a fast start against the Razorbacks, I think they’ll cruise to a win. Burns, a very streaky shooter, is the x-factor.
WEST BRACKET
#12 UCSB vs. #5 Creighton: Steady UCSB wins with talent, execution, and standout play from leading scorer Jaquori McLaughlin and big man Amadou Sow. On the other hand, Creighton got blown out by upstart 13-12 Georgetown in the Big East Championship game. The problem for UCSB is it played very few non-Big West games, which means it doesn’t have a nationally-grounded record. That said, this could be another of those infamous 12-seed takedowns of a 5-seed team. If so, it will be as much about CU as it is about Santa Barbara.
#11 DRAKE v. #11 Wichita State (play-in game): Drake hit mid-season undefeated but couldn’t sustain that record. This is one game where I think the mid-major will have trouble winning this week. Ironically, it would come against the former mid-major Shockers.
#10 VCU v. #7 Oregon: VCU is a good team that didn’t play up to par in the A-10 Championship game. Oregon, an up-and-down squad, plays in an up-and-down conference. VCU has a chance against the Ducks if it plays up to its standard, but the Rams that I saw play late in the season weren’t as good as the earlier-season bunch.
#15 GRAND CANYON v. #2 Iowa: This game could very well be the ‘Upset Special’ of the First Round. The Antelopes have terrific shooters in Jovan Blacksher and Mikey Dixon. Plus, GCU has a Luca Garza antidote in the person of Wichita State-transfer, Asbjorn Midgaard, who leads the team in scoring and rebounds (a double-double performer) and has a habit of owning the middle. The Hawkeyes are a lot like Arkansas (it depends which team shows up). I think this game will turn on how easily the Hawks will score against a team known for energic play. With that in mind, know that CGU is 9th nationally in scoring defense.
Those who follow me know that I added MOREHEAD STATE to my watchlist after the Eagles vanquished 23-4 Belmont (one of my 13 picks) in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game. Belmont had won the OVC regular-season championship, but the loss kept the Bruins out of the NCAA field.
MIDWEST BRACKET
#13 MOREHEAD STATE v. #3 West Virginia: This WVU alum is worried. The Mountaineers are good, especially offensively, with crafty Miles McBride, sharpshooting Sean McNeil, slithery duo Taz Sherman and Jalen Bridges, and dominating big man Derek Culver. But this Top 10-ranked team has a history of not playing up to potential. WVU stumbled home 2-3, including going out in the First Round of the Big 12 Tournament. 23-7 Morehead, on the other hand, is on an eight-game winning streak. MSU’s Johni Broome, whom I featured in previous articles, could be the difference. The Mountaineers can score in bunches and have a penchant for coming from behind to win, which they may have to do against Morehead. WVU won’t be able to sleepwalk in this one.
So, which teams have the best chance of playing David this year? It’s a long list: St. Bonaventure, Abilene Christian, Grand Canyon, UCSB, Morehead State, Loyola, Colgate, and Winthrop.
But, mind you, only one of my picks is favored to win (Loyola). At issue is whether you (first gulp and then) include one or more of my teams in your brackets. For the wagering crowd, it’s decision-time against the spread. With that in mind, here are the Monday, March 15 lines:
Loyola -2
St. Bonaventure +2
Drake +2
VCU +6
Winthrop +6
UCSB +6.5
Abilene Christian +9
Colgate +9.5
UNCG +11.5
Morehead State +12.5
Grand Canyon +14.5
Enjoy the games!
