Hot off a 72% Sweet 16 win-rate. I see both favorites winning tonight.
The eyes of Texas are on college basketball tonight in Indiana. Both Texas-based teams–the Houston Cougars and Baylor Bears–are odds-on favorites to advance to the coveted Final Four. ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor pegs Houston a 92% chance of winning, and it’s 74% for the Bears. Vegas has the Cougars -8 and the Bears -7.5.
But here’s the thing. Surprising, Oregon State keeps winning, and Arkansas does the very same thing. Can they keep it up?
I thought there was absolutely no way that the Beavers would be able to stop the surging Loyola Ramblers (one of my two losses in the Sweet 16). They did, and one stat line reveals why. The Ramblers did better or were level with OSU in every single major team statistic except field goal percentage and free-throw shooting. Can’t score, can’t win. Typically able guards Lucas Williamson and Braden Norris were a lousy 6-18 from the field. Loyola has been winning by having those two excel to complement productivity from reliable center Cameron Krutwig, who was reliable again with a double-double (14 points/10 rebounds). But it wasn’t enough.
Against, Loyola, the Beavers countered with tough defense and nimble scoring from their top gun, Ethan Thompson, who finished with 22 points, four rebounds, and four assists. But only one other OSU player was in double figures, and that–I think–is a major factor in tonight’s game.
If the Cougars can stop Thompson, who else will step up? Even if both Jarod Lucas and Warith Alatishe do, I don’t think it will be enough to make up for a Thompson off-night. To win, the Beavers need all three to have solid nights–and I’ll throw in a fourth player, too, namely, Roman Silva.
Houston, on the other hand, handled the Syracuse Orange. The Cougars didn’t just win. They peeled the Orange. UH cracked the SU zone early, and the Cougs put the clamps on SU’s bombers–Boeheim and Girard–who were 7-23 from the field with only three trays combined. Last week, I argued that Kelvin Sampson would come up with a viable game plan and that Quentin Grimes, Justin Gorham, and Dejon Jarreau would come through with solid games. They did. Marcus Sasser had a good night, too (12 points in 39 minutes of play).
The biggest obstacle for the Beavers tonight is figuring out a way to attack a Houston team that has a habit of deflecting attacks. Houston ranks second in the country in scoring margin (20 points a game) and scoring defense (57.9). Cougs advance.
In the other game, it’s hard to imagine the Razorbacks being able to stay with the rugged Baylor Bears after watching UA struggle mightily against mid-major ORU, and also seeing the Bears pound Villanova into submission going down the stretch.
The Hogs had to come back from a double-digit halftime deficit and very easily could have lost the game on a slightly errant three at the buzzer.
On the other hand, Baylor exercised its will against the Wildcats by dominating two stats that are connected–turnovers (VU had 16) and steals (BU had 8). And make no mistake about this: Baylor did not have one of its best nights. Only one starter (Davion Mitchell) scored in double figures, and the usually reliable Jared Butler (averages 17 points a night) played nearly the entire game but scored only 9 points.
Those stats tell me that BU finds ways to win. That said (and as I’ve written previously), this is still not the same Baylor team that I saw play earlier in the year. That team–like Gonzaga still does–looked unbeatable. Still, though, I think the Bears will have enough to beat the overachieving Razorbacks. Baylor advances.
