Last week, I was 13-3, and that outcome raised my year-to-date mark to 147-92-1 (.614).
Back in 2010, the league began squeezing every bit of 11th-hour playoff-spot drama it could get out of the season. Division clashes would constitute all regular-season finales.
NOTE: All games will be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.
Baltimore 40, Cincinnati 17: The Ravens have won four straight, averaging 37 points per game in the process, and now have the NFL’s best point differential (plus-130). That was entirely expected, given the nature of their soft December schedule. But Baltimore could only play the teams in front of it, and the team got healthy and consistent enough to deal with those opponents the way it should have. As a result, it cruised into the playoff field from the outside looking in, and a win over the host Bengals would solidify a seed, although it’s not entirely clear which one as yet. Still, given everything Baltimore has been through – injuries, inconsistency, and a COVID-19 outbreak – a chance in the playoffs is obviously better than no chance at all. The Ravens do have a losing record in the Queen City (9-15), and the Bengals have shown some fight in beating Pittsburgh and Houston over the last two weeks; the Houston game was Cincinnati’s first road win in two years and the first under coach Zac Taylor.
Pittsburgh 30, Cleveland 27: It seems strange to say that a 12-win team had to do anything to save its season, but that’s exactly what the Steelers did in rallying from way down to beat Indianapolis last week. That should serve them well going into the regular-season finale just up the turnpike in Cleveland. The Browns, playing without any of their top wide receivers against the Jets, ended up losing and dropping to that precarious seventh and final playoff seed. If they trip up again, they will reveal themselves to be the luckless, hapless outfit I’ve always believed it is, even with a ten-win season. In 2007, the Browns won ten games and missed the playoffs; could history repeat itself?
New England 23, New York Jets 6: For the first time since 2008, the New England Patriots will not be a part of the NFL’s postseason party. But for the 2020 Jets, the road team in this matchup, the season has not only been far from festive, but it’s also been the kind of party the police break up even before all the guests arrive.
Buffalo 33, Miami 30: This should be one of the more fever-pitched games of the week. Buffalo wants to hang on to the No. 2 AFC playoff seed, while Miami still needs this win to secure its place in the postseason party; Indianapolis is still breathing down its neck. Odds are the game will be played in very cold and possibly snowy Orchard Park.
Dallas 29, New York Giants 22: The Cowboys have had the Giants’ number in recent years, and with the late-season surge they have shown (Dallas has a league-high ten takeaways over the last three weeks), it’s a team more than capable of winning at the Giants’ New Jersey home. It may not be enough to win the turgidly-bad NFC East. Washington clinches with a Sunday-night win, no matter what happens in this game. That said, the ‘Boys and Giants want to lay down a strong foundation for future seasons. The Giants showed some promise around midseason but have now lost three straight.
Tampa Bay 30, Atlanta 23: The Falcons, who have lost seven times this year by six or fewer points, have shown a lot of heart since the coaching change. But this week they are up against a strong foe in this regular-season-closing road game at Tampa Bay. Tom Brady has looked at least ten years younger lately, and the Atlanta defense has proven to be porous, to say the least. The Buccaneers have the NFC’s longest playoff drought (not having been there since 2007). But now that they have nailed down a berth, the Bucs want to add some style points to the resume, as they did in Detroit last week.
Minnesota 27, Detroit 20: At 6-9 and freshly eliminated from the playoff race last week, the Vikings are beset with problems. Longtime coach Mike Zimmer faces job security issues. Injuries have also devastated this team, but if there’s a silver lining (literally) this week is that they get to play at Detroit.
Green Bay 23, Chicago 13: Even if the Packers were not trying to solidify the top NFC playoff seed – and nail down the first-round bye that comes with it – they’d be going all-out to win this game because it’s at the home of their bitter, longtime archrival, the Chicago Bears. These two teams have the longest, most enduring, and antagonistic archrivalry in the league’s history. To make matters more interesting, the Bears (surprisingly) are still in the wild-card hunt. Because of intrigue, this game was flexed to the late-afternoon time slot.
New Orleans 40, Carolina 10: The Saints, whose season-ending game was also flexed to the late-afternoon time slot, are coming off a Christmas Day thrashing of Minnesota–thanks to Alvin Kamara’s NFL-record-tying six-touchdown effort. The team’s offense is humming while the Panthers’ equivalent unit is struggling mightily. Even though it might not end up with the NFC’s top seed, New Orleans is looking like a team that could represent the conference in the Super Bowl, which is exactly what I predicted back in August.
Kansas City 38, Los Angeles Chargers 17: When it comes to the Chargers, you never know what you’re going to get. But with Kansas City at home for this regular-season finale, there’s no dilemma this Sunday. The defending champs are on a franchise-record, ten-game winning streak, albeit they’ve won seven straight games by one score. This is another game that has been flexed, and it will be shown by FOX rather than by CBS.
Las Vegas 26, Denver 23: The Raiders have been a much better road team all year, but this road game comes after LV was ousted from the playoffs by Miami last week. For once, Las Vegas is not among the league’s most penalized teams; it is closer to the middle of the pack. Denver has some sorting out to do at quarterback, and it may have to draft another one to make up for failed picks Trevor Simien and Drew Lock.
Tennessee 33, Houston 17: This game and the Indianapolis-Jacksonville contest were moved to the late-afternoon window. Tennessee is on the road in this one, and it could fly home with a division title. Houston would seem to be the perfect foil for that objective, as the Texans have sprung defensive leaks (despite having some fine individual players on that side of the ball). So who’s going to stop the prolific Derrick Henry?
Indianapolis 40, Jacksonville 10: Indianapolis, fresh off a tough game in Pittsburgh last week, gets perhaps the cushiest assignment of Week 17. It stays home to take on the hapless Jaguars. While quarterback Philip Rivers hasn’t been the standout signal-caller he was earlier in his career, he has been respectable. And even though the Colts aren’t as good as I expected pre-season, they are playing well enough to earn a wild-card berth. The problem? In a crowded playoff field, Indy might not be able to crash the postseason party. That makes this a very watchable game.
Arizona 24, Los Angeles Rams 23: The Cardinals’ second-half slide has taken them perilously to the edge of playoff elimination. If Jared Goff (thumb injury) were playing for the Rams – and there’s a chance he won’t – this road game could push Arizona off the cliff. But Kyler Murray, who also got shaken up in last week’s game, has shown that even an ultra-small quarterback can be exciting at this level. (This game has been cross-flexed to CBS.)
Seattle 31, San Francisco 20 (at Arizona): The 49ers are to be commended for winning at Arizona last week, especially since it came after they had already been officially eliminated from the playoffs. But this week it’s Seattle. Even so, while the records would seem to indicate otherwise, I predict this will be a very competitive game.
Philadelphia 20, Washington 16 (Sunday night): With a division title on the line (Washington clinches the NFC East with a win, no matter what happens elsewhere), this game was flexed into the open Sunday-night slot. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has given his team a spark but has still shown some rookie inconsistency. As his eliminated team closes at home this week, Hurts will face a Washington defense loaded with first-round picks scattered across its front seven. So Hurts will need to get the ball out quickly and use his legs with the same effectiveness. That’s the way to counter WFT’s defensive speed. The Eagles’ defensive line should easily hold back the visitors, particularly if Alex Smith is not playing.
