Ravens v. Jacksonville Jaguars: Opponent Analysis & Game Prediction

, ,

The Ravens are talented, young, deep, and with expectations. Baltimore is on a mission to nail down a wild-card spot. They aren’t going to fall to the Jaguars, losers of 12 straight games. 


WHAT: Week 15, Game 14 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
WHEN: 1 p.m. (EST); Sunday, December 20
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (70,745)
RECORDS: Jaguars, 1-12; Ravens, 8-5
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Jaguars lead, 12-9. Jacksonville won the first eight games between the teams, but the Ravens have won nine of 13 meetings since, including six straight at one point. The teams have alternated wins in their last seven overall clashes; the Jaguars have won four of those. In Baltimore, the Ravens are 6-5 against the Jaguars but haven’t faced them in Baltimore since 2015, when the Jaguars pulled out a 22-20 win.
LOCAL TV and RADIO: WJZ-TV, Channel 13, WIYY-FM, 97.9
REFEREE: Carl Cheffers

About the Jaguars

—The Jaguars were born out of NFL expansion during the controversial 1993 owners’ meetings in Chicago when the teams gathered for the express purpose of adding two new teams. Charlotte (Carolina Panthers) was quickly approved as the league’s 29th team, but Jacksonville competed with Baltimore and St. Louis for the other slot. Expressing a desire to explore a new market, the owners settled on Jacksonville. Still, the other two cities would return to the league within the next three years due to franchise relocations. The league swelled to its present 32-team lineup by bringing back Cleveland in 1999 and returning to Houston in 2002.

–Businessman Wayne Weaver owned the team from its 1995 debut to 2011, when Pakistani-American businessman Shahid Khan purchased it for $770 million. According to Forbes, the franchise is was worth over $1.4 billion as of 2015. In June 2020, Khan’s net worth of $11.8 billion made him the second-richest NFL owner, surpassed only by Carolina’s David Tepper. As the Fulham soccer club owner in West London, Khan turned the Jaguars’ occasional London trip into an annual event starting in 2013; the team has played more games in London than any other NFL franchise.

–The Jaguars are one of four franchises that have never appeared in a Super Bowl (along with Houston, Cleveland, and Detroit). Jacksonville has reached the AFC Championship Game three times, including after its second season in 1996. The Jags lost the 1996 and 2017 games at New England and fell at home to Tennessee in the 1999 AFC title contest.

–Jacksonville has captured seven playoff berths in 25 full seasons. The total is the second-lowest in NFL history (Houston, six). Those berths include three division titles and four wild-card berths. Two of the division crowns came in the old AFC Central (1998, 1999), but the Jags did win the modern-day AFC South in 2017.

–Jacksonville has only had occasional success in the league. Its record of 177-236 (.428) is the third-worst regular-season mark in NFL history, bottomed only by the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This year will mark the Jaguars’ 18th season of .500 or worse in 25 years, their third straight and 12th in the last 13 years.

—The Jaguars never played against the Baltimore Colts, as they came into existence 12 years after the Colts’ final game in Charm City. The Jaguars and Ravens both occupied the old AFC Central Division from 1996-2001, after which the Jags were realigned into the newly-formed AFC South in 2002. Jacksonville is one of nine teams with a lifetime winning record over Baltimore (12-9).

–Jacksonville swept the Ravens in each of the first four seasons of Baltimore’s existence, but the Ravens answered with two sweeps before the realignment. The most memorable games between the two include the 2000 Ravens home opener in Week Two, a come-from-behind 39-36 Ravens win, the Jags’ 12-7 Monday-night home upset in 2011, an eight-sack Ravens performance in a 2014 home win, and the Jags’ blowout victory in London in 2017 in the Ravens’ only trip there.

–That London game, a 44-7 Jaguars win, represented the closest any team has come to ending Baltimore’s AFC-record 299-game regular-season streak without being shut out, second-longest in league history to San Francisco’s 420-game run between 1977-2004. The Ravens’ streak was 241 games long at the time. The Ravens did not hit the scoreboard in that game until just over three minutes remained when backup quarterback Ryan Mallett hit the tight end, Ben Watson, with a six-yard touchdown pass.

—This year’s Jaguars surprised many observers around the league with their Week One home victory over Indianapolis. But since then, Jacksonville has set a new franchise record with 12 straight losses, breaking the previous club mark of nine set in 2016, leading to the firing of head coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville would draft No. 2 overall if the selection meeting were held today, trailing only the winless New York Jets. Six of the losses have come in one-score games, including recent defeats to Cleveland and Minnesota, the latter. Following Sunday’s game at Baltimore, the Jaguars play their home finale against Chicago before traveling to Indianapolis to close the season.

–Like many teams affected by the lack of a full training camp and preseason, the Jags have been heavily impacted by injuries. Jacksonville has had 15 players on various injured-reserve lists; nine players were on last week’s injury reports. The lack of depth has shown statistically that the team’s 27:43 possession average is the league’s third-worst. The team has allowed 38 opponents’ first downs via penalty and is terribly out of balance with 540 passes (including 32 sacks allowed) and 282 run plays. The club has also allowed 44 touchdowns through 13 games and has been outscored every quarter except the fourth, where it holds an insignificant 77-74 edge.

–The Jaguars played to an even turnover ratio in their most recent loss to Tennessee. But all that did was leave Jacksonville’s season-long number at minus-7, which is tied with San Francisco for the league’s third-worst figure. The Jaguars have intercepted nine passes thanks to seven different players, but their quarterbacks have thrown 14 pickoffs. Jacksonville has also forced just nine fumbles and only managed to recover five of them. The Jaguars are one of ten teams to have turned the ball over 20 or more times, and the team’s 14 takeaways are the NFL’s seventh-fewest.

—Through 13 games, the Jaguars were third in the AFC and fourth in the NFL with 87 accepted penalty infractions, just three more than Baltimore’s total. Jacksonville has committed many untimely defensive penalties, including an AFC-high 14 pass interference infractions (second in the league to New Orleans’ 16) and nine defensive holding calls (fourth-most). Individually, defensive players occupy seven of the top ten spots on the team’s penalty chart, with linebacker Myles Jack leading the team with seven flags, including three for pass interference. Defensive back Josh Jones also has three pass interference calls against him.

—Through Week 14, the Jaguars ranked 22nd in total offense (23rd rushing, 20th passing, 28th scoring at 20.1 points per game). The Jacksonville third-down conversion rate ranks 19th in the league, while the red-zone unit is scoring touchdowns at a pace that ranks it tied for 16th-best. On defense, Jacksonville ranks 32nd and last overall (30th vs. rush, 28th vs. pass, 28th scoring, allowing 29.5 points per game). The Jaguars allow 24.4 first downs per game, the league’s third-highest number, while the third-down defense allows conversions at a pace that ranks it 19th leaguewide, and the red-zone unit ranks tied for 13th.

–Fifty-six-year-old head coach Doug Marrone (25-40 with Jacksonville, including playoffs), a Bronx native, is in his fourth full year at the Jaguars’ helm. He took over the reins late in the 2016 season after the firing of Gus Bradley. Marrone, an offensive lineman, was drafted by the Los Angeles Raiders in 1986 and played for two NFL teams and the London Monarchs of NFL Europe. After two decades as a pro and college assistant coach, he head-coached Syracuse for four years (2009-12), posted a 25-25 record, and won two Pinstripe Bowls.

–Marrone’s NFL head-coaching odyssey followed with two seasons as the Buffalo Bills’ head coach, posting a 15-17 record. Marrone opted out of his contract when the team was sold following the death of owner Ralph Wilson; he then became the offensive line coach in Jacksonville. After getting the head-coaching job, he took the Jags to the 2017 AFC Championship Game in his first full season but lost a ten-point lead in the fourth quarter to New England. His career head-coaching record is 40-57 (including postseason), and he is 2-0 against Baltimore.

–A big part of the Jags’ problems this year is that it has used three principal starting quarterbacks: draft picks Gardner Minshew and Jake Luton, along with league journeyman Mike Glennon. In his third start for the team, Glennon’s turn was to get benched in the second half of last week’s game against Tennessee in favor of Minshew, who had not played since injuring his thumb in mid-October. Marrone has already announced Minshew as the starter for Sunday’s game in Baltimore.

–Minshew completed 18 of 31 passes against the Titans for 178 yards and a touchdown, along with an 85.1 passer rating. For the season, Minshew, a former Unitas Golden Arm Award winner drafted in the sixth round of the 2019 draft (178th overall) out of Washington State, has completed 65.1 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns, five interceptions, 22 sacks, and a passer rating of 93.4. In each of his last four road games, Minshew has two touchdown passes and a passer rating over 90.

—On the ground, Minshew has also run for 144 yards and a touchdown, but the Jaguars’ workhorse is James Robinson, an undrafted rookie from Illinois State. He was named the team’s top back when the season began. He is one of the few starters remarkably unaffected by the team’s injury bug, and he has justified the team’s faith in him by rushing for 1035 yards in 13 games, averaging 4.6 yards-per-carry, with seven touchdowns. He is the first rookie in NFL history to break the 1000-yard barrier 14 games into a season. Robinson’s longest rush from scrimmage this year has covered 47 yards, and he has contributed 46 receptions out of the backfield, one shy of the team leader.

—The Jaguars’ receiving corps has been battered by injuries, so much so that a staggering total of 16 different players have caught at least one pass this year. The biggest absence is that of speedy Dede Westbrook, who injured his knee in Week Seven; he was also the team’s punt returner. The current team leader is undrafted fourth-year veteran Keelan Cole, who has 47 catches for a 12.5-yard average and five of the team’s 19 receiving touchdowns. Cole had a season-high seven catches last week. After Robinson comes third-year LSU product and a second-round pick (61st overall), DJ Chark, slowed by foot, ankle, chest, and back injuries this year. Chark, a 6-foot-4 target, has 45 receptions for a 13-yard average and four scores, including a 73-yard touchdown.

–Laviska Shenault, this year’s second-round pick from LSU (42nd overall), and ex-Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert have a respective 42 and 30 catches, each with two touchdowns. Shenault’s 42 catches are fourth-most among rookies. Chris Conley has battled a hip problem, but he has gathered 29 receptions for a 12-yard average. Tight end James O’Shaughnessy is next with 24 grabs and a chain-moving 9.5-yar average per reception.

—The Jaguars’ offensive line, one that has paced a 1000-yard rusher this year while allowing 31 sacks through 13 games, has also had a few injuries but has been relatively stable. It has been helped by the versatile Tyler Shatley, who at first filled in for the injured Andrew Norwell at center, moved to left guard, and is now back at center. Ben Bartch, from Division III St. John’s (Minnesota) is a rookie who now has the left guard job, next to left tackle Cam Robinson, an Outland Trophy winner and 2017 second-rounder (34th overall) from Alabama who won a national title there and is now in his fourth year with the team. AJ Cann and Jawaan Taylor are the respective right guard and right tackle; they are in their sixth and second seasons, respectively. Taylor has had occasional knee problems, while Cann has battled triceps problems in 2018 and 2019 but missed just one game each season.

–Jacksonville’s defensive line has also undergone its fair share of shuffling. It started with defensive end Dawuane Smoot (team-high 4.5 sacks, team-best 14 quarterback hits, first career forced fumble last week), who used to back up Adam Gotsis on the right side, then switched to the left when Josh Allen (2.5 sacks, 11 quarterback hits) injured his knee. Daniel Ekuale is a second-year defensive tackle paired with Doug Costin, a previous backup to Abry Jones until the latter hurt his ankle and was placed on the IR-designated for return list. Gotsis (30 tackles, four tackles for loss) still handles the other defensive end spot, but stalwart nose tackle DaVon Hamilton (30 tackles, one sack) has battled knee problems. All of the injuries and reshuffling has reopened an opportunity for rookie defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson, this year’s top draft pick (20th overall) who headed the Jags’ franchise-record 12-man draft class.

—At the linebacker level, veteran Leon Jacobs tore his anterior cruciate knee ligament in Week 3. Undrafted second-year sub-Joe Giles-Harris has filled that spot ever since, contributing four quarterback hits; he also got his first career sack last week. But the main tacklers on defense are weak-side linebacker Myles Jack and middle linebacker and ex-Cleveland Brown starter Joe Schobert, who moved to the Jaguars as an unrestricted free agent.

–Schobert and Jack are 1-2 on the team in tackles with a respective 113 and 95. The tandem each has a sack as well. The pair has combined for 11 tackles for losses, seven quarterback hits, and six pass breakups. Jack, a 2016 second-round pick (36th overall), battled knee and hip injuries in his rookie season but played all 16 games. In his last meeting with the Ravens, Schobert had two tackles for loss and a sack.

—Cornerback Sidney Jones, a former 2017 Philadelphia second-round pick, is just the latest to climb aboard in the Jaguars’ secondary merry-go-round. He has nine passes defensed and two interceptions in limited duty so far. Tre Herndon (63 tackles, fourth on the team, five breakups), a 2018 undrafted player, handles the other corner and has been unaffected by the injury. Still, the same can’t be said for veterans CJ Henderson (groin), corner and returner Chris Claybrooks (groin), and third-year nickel back DJ Hayden (hamstring), who could still return. The safety tandem of Josh Jones (74 tackles, third on the team) and Jarrod Wilson (49 tackles, fifth in tackles, two pass breakups) have soldiered through, although Wilson has battled shoulder problems.

—The Jaguars’ special-teams units definitely present a mixed bag. The team’s punt-return unit averages 11.8 per runback, the league’s third-best figure, but the kickoff-return unit is only managing 19.9 yards per attempt, the league’s eighth-worst number. On coverage, the punt-return unit is allowing 6.4 yards per runback, tied for the ninth-best figure, but the kick-coverage team is yielding just 19 yards per attempt, which is fourth-best. With Westbrook out, top receiver Keelan Cole runs back punts these days and is averaging 15.6 yards with one touchdown, a 91-yard effort. Running back kicks is Georgia Tech-bred rookie Nathan Cottrell, but he has the job only because Claybrooks and Westbrook are out. The team picked up ex-Washington returner Trey Quinn on waivers for possible future duty.

–The Jaguars have had a messy season when it comes to kickers, having used six different players at that spot. Fourth-year NFL kicker Aldrick Rosas was brought up from the practice squad to fill the void left by Chase McLaughlin (COVID) and Josh Lambo (hip), as well as ex-Ravens kicker Steve Hauschka (retirement), among others. Rosas is 7-for-10 on field-goal tries, with a team-high three from beyond 50 yards. Logan Cooke is a third-year punter from Mississippi State with 18 coffin-corner punts and five touchbacks in 49 punts; he is gross-averaging 47.6 and netting 43.4. The Jaguars have allowed opposing kickers to make 26 of 31 field goals, but the team has blocked one punt this year.

Prediction

Anything can happen in the NFL. But this is a Ravens team that’s talented, young, deep, and with expectations. Baltimore is on a mission to nail down a wild-card spot. They aren’t going to fall to the Jaguars, losers of 12 straight games.

Baltimore 40, Jacksonville 6

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

CAPTCHA