Ravens Week 1 v. Cleveland Browns: Opponent Analysis & Game Prediction

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Yes, Cleveland won last year’s opener, but the Ravens were a few weeks away from dominating the league, reeling off 12 consecutive wins. On Sunday, the Browns face a loaded and highly motivated team. History will not repeat.


WHEN: 1 p.m. (EST); Sunday, September 13
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (70,745)
2019 RECORDS: Browns, 6-10; Ravens, 14-2
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 31-11, but the teams have split their last four meetings. In Baltimore, the Ravens are 16-5 against the Browns and had won seven straight home games against Cleveland before the teams proceeded to trade victories in their last four games in Charm City.
LOCAL BALTIMORE AREA TV AND RADIO: TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, booth; Evan Washburn, sidelines); RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Obafemi Ayanbadejo, booth)
REFEREE: Ron Torbert

About the Browns

Along with the Baltimore Colts and San Francisco 49ers, the Browns franchise was born as part of the All-America Football Conference in 1946. Cleveland won all four of that league’s championships, going on to advance to the NFL title game in its first six years after that–a run of ten straight championship-game appearances. Since joining the NFL after a 1950 merger, the Browns have won 18 division titles and earned 24 total playoff berths (tied with Washington for the league’s ninth-most) in 70 full NFL seasons, but the Browns’ recent history has not been nearly as spectacular.

–The Browns are one of four franchises that have never appeared in a Super Bowl (along with Houston, Jacksonville, and Detroit). Cleveland last won an NFL championship in 1964–two seasons before the Super Bowl was born. Cleveland hasn’t had a winning record since going 10-6 in 2007, a year when it still missed the playoffs. The team hasn’t been to the postseason since 2002, their only playoff berth since returning to the league as an expansion team in 1999.

–The Browns are 0-3 in the modern-day AFC Championship Game, losing to Denver in 1986 (“The Drive”), 1987 (“The Fumble”), and 1989 (“The Blowout”). Since returning to the league as a 1999 expansion team, Cleveland has no AFC North titles –the only team in the division to have never won it since it was formed after the 2002 realignment–and has made just one playoff appearance (2002) with only two winning seasons (2002, 2007). The Browns had finished last in the North for seven straight years before 2018, last avoiding the cellar before that by going 5-11 in 2010.

–When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they met the Browns on 15 occasions, winning only five of those games and losing their last five straight matchups with Cleveland before moving to Indianapolis. The teams met three times in postseason play, with the Browns winning the 1964 NFL title game at home, 27-0 (the franchise’s last title of any kind), the Colts returning the favor four years later, 34-0, a result that put them into Super Bowl 3, and Baltimore winning a 1971 Divisional round game on the road, 20-3, before getting shut out at Miami, 21-0, in the AFC title game.

—With this division matchup being played in Baltimore, it will continue a trend that will see the return match (second game) being played in Cleveland in four of the past six years. Despite that, the Ravens have swept this head-to-head series 12 times, while the Browns have recorded only two sweeps (2001, 2007). There have been seven splits, the most recent occurring in 2015 and again in each of the last two seasons.

–Cleveland’s lifetime record in season-opening games is 27-39-1 (.410), the worst in the AFC and fifth-worst in the league. At one point in its history, Cleveland lost 13 straight Week 1 games, which is an NFL record. Baltimore is currently on a streak that has seen it win its last four season openers, the AFC’s second-longest active run (Kansas City, five).

–The Ravens’ 31 regular-season wins over Cleveland represent their highest number over any opponent in the league in team history, quite a feat when because the Browns did not even exist during the Ravens’ first three seasons in the league. Naturally, the other two AFC North opponents rank second and third, with Baltimore having defeated Cincinnati 25 times and Pittsburgh on 23 occasions.

—As with the rest of the AFC North, Cleveland has what could be perceived as one of the league’s easiest schedules–with home games in three of the first five weeks before consecutive division road games at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Browns also have four road games in a five-week stretch in November and December. The last two road games in that span are consecutive trips to New Jersey to play the Giants and Jets, a schedule quirk the Ravens experienced in 2016. The return matchup with Baltimore will take place in Cleveland on a Monday night (Dec. 14).

–Statistically, Cleveland has many characteristics that are typical of a mediocre team. Last season, they were competitive in the first half of games but were outscored by 37 points in the third quarter and 22 in the fourth. Browns’ quarterbacks threw 21 interceptions and the team finished the season with a minus-8 turnover ratio, among the league’s worst.

–Perhaps the Browns’ biggest Achilles heel has been penalties. Last season, they committed 122 accepted penalties, third-most in the AFC and fourth in the league. Cleveland was one of only five teams to be penalized more than 1100 yards. The team’s 24 false starts were tied with the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo for the league’s second-most, and the Browns’ nine roughing-the-passer calls were second-most behind Baltimore’s 11. Individually, corners Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward had three pass interference calls each; Williams was second on the team with eight total flags, trailing tackle Greg Robinson (ten).

Last season, the Browns ranked 22nd in total offense (12th rushing, 22nd passing, 21st scoring). On the ground, they averaged 4.84 yards per play, the league’s fourth-best. The team’s third-down conversion rate ranked 20th, but Cleveland was tied for 13th in red-zone touchdown percentage. On defense, Cleveland ranked 22nd overall (30th vs. rush, seventh vs. pass, 20th scoring, allowing 24.6 points per game). The Browns allowed five rushing yards per play and 144 per game but did hold opposing teams to a 35 percent fourth-down conversion rate, the league’s fifth-lowest.

Kevin Stefanski, a 38-year-old Philadelphia native, who is the third-youngest active head coach in the league, takes over the reins in 2020. He is the Browns’ 12th full-time head coach in its expansion-era franchise history (since 1999) and the 22nd overall. Stefanski was under consideration for hire by Cleveland a year ago before the team settled on Freddie Kitchens. Stefanski has spent the last 14 years working his way up the Minnesota Vikings’ coaching ladder, serving as offensive coordinator last year. Under his leadership, quarterback Kirk Cousins had a career-best passer rating of over 107 and set a franchise record for completions (425). Also, running back Dalvin Cook broke 1000 yards for the first time and was invited to his first Pro Bowl. As a player, Stefanski was a defensive back at the University of Pennsylvania.

–-Third-year quarterback and 2018 top overall pick Baker Mayfield is a 6-foot-1, 215-pound Heisman Trophy winner from Oklahoma who will do battle with another Heisman-winning quarterback, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. After an impressive rookie year, Mayfield regressed badly in 2019, completing only 59.9 percent of his passes for 22 touchdowns, 21 interceptions, and a mediocre 78.8 passer rating. He was also sacked 40 times. However, he is the first Browns quarterback since Bernie Kosar in 1986-87 to pass for over 3000 yards in consecutive years. In four career games against Baltimore, Mayfield is 2-2 with a 59.4 completion rate, seven touchdowns, six interceptions, and an 85.8 rating; he has been sacked six times. This year, Mayfield will be backed up by NFL journeyman Case Keenum, most recently with Washington.

On the ground, 2018 second-round pick Nick Chubb (35th overall pick), the cousin of Denver pass rusher Bradley Chubb, set the Browns’ single-season rookie rushing record in 2018. He added a 1494-yard season last year (second in the league), including an 88-yard touchdown scamper, three scores, and 165 yards in Baltimore; the previous rookie record-holder was Ex-Browns and Ravens back Trent Richardson. Chubb averaged five yards-per-carry last year and scored eight times. After serving an eight-game suspension, Kareem Hunt – recipient of a brand-new contract extension – contributed 43 carries and two touchdowns, while Mayfield was third on the team with five yards-per-carry and three scores. Andy Janovich is the starting fullback.

The Browns’ receiving corps got bolstered by rookie sixth-rounder Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan). But plenty of marquee talent returns among the top four targets, especially Odell Beckham, Jr., who caught 74 passes last year, averaged 14 yards per catch and scored four touchdowns (three career TDs vs. Ravens). However, it was teammate Jarvis Landry that led the Browns with 83 catches (15 against Baltimore), a 14-yard average, and six scores. KhaDarel Hodge, waived by the Los Angeles Rams in the offseason, is a newcomer, but Rashard Higgins returns after a season that saw him slowed by injury and catch just four passes, one for a touchdown. Hunt and Chubb were a respective third and fourth on the team last year with 37 and 36 receptions; each averaged 7.7 per catch. Damion Ratley (12 catches, one TD) is also back.

David Njoku’s season-ending wrist injury kept him out most of last year, but the veteran tight end has returned for his fourth season with the team. The Browns aggressively want to deploy a two-tight-end set similar to Baltimore’s, so they picked up former Atlanta Falcon starter Austin Hooper (6-foot-4, 254 pounds), who was cut by the Falcons when they acquired Baltimore’s Hayden Hurst in a trade. Hooper scored a touchdown in 2018 against the Ravens when they played in Atlanta. In the fourth round of this year’s draft, the Browns took tight end Harrison Bryant (Florida Atlantic), who won the team award for the best training-camp rookie, an award previously won by quarterback Baker Mayfield, defensive end Myles Garrett and linebacker Mack Wilson.

Because of left tackle Greg Robinson’s penalty problems and porous pass protection from the entire offensive line (41 sacks allowed), the Browns aggressively remade their unit in the offseason. It appears they will go with rookie first-rounder Jedrick Wills, Jr. (Alabama) as the starting left tackle with veteran Chris Hubbard backing up both Wills and the right tackle, veteran free-agent pickup Jack Conklin, who comes over from Tennessee. Nick Harris, a fifth-round pick from Washington, is the top backup at center behind veteran and Players Association president JC Tretter, who is one of only two returning up-front starters, along with left guard Joel Bitonio. Tretter missed all of training camp with a knee problem, but he is expected to play. The new right guard is second-year player Wyatt Teller, acquired in a trade from Buffalo.

First-round pick and veteran defensive end Myles Garrett, currently dealing with a minor wrist injury, returns to the Browns this year after missing last season’s final six games (including one against Baltimore for swinging a helmet during an on-field fight against Pittsburgh). He had ten of the Browns’ 38 sacks last year, while opposite-side end Olivier Vernon contributed 3.5 sacks. In five career games against the Ravens, Vernon has 4.5 sacks. Meanwhile, interior rusher Larry Ogunjobi added 50 tackles and 5.5 sacks; he served a one-game suspension last season. The starting unit is rounded out by former New York Jets standout Sheldon Richardson, who racked up 62 tackles and three sacks.

The Browns’ linebacking corps has been hurt the past two years when Christian Kirksey, a veritable tackling machine, was put on injured reserve before departing in free agency. Fifth-year middle linebacker Joe Schobert, who led the Browns in tackles and interceptions, also left for Jacksonville as a free agent. Listed as the new weak-side starter, behind injured starter Mack Wilson, is rookie third-round pick Jacob Phillips, who played on LSU’s national championship team alongside Ravens inside linebacker rookie Patrick Queen. The strong-side spot is currently taken by former reserve Sione Takitaki, although former Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith (Seattle, Super Bowl 48) is also expected to see plenty of field time. Second-year player Wilson, second on the team in tackles last year, also returns, but he will miss four to six weeks with a hyperextended knee. The starter in the middle, BJ Goodson, has also been missing from practices due to a personal issue.

The Browns’ secondary had all four of its starters on the seven-man game-day inactive list for the first Baltimore game last year. The list included starting cornerbacks Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward, first-round picks in consecutive years. Last year, Williams was seventh on the team in tackles, and Ward was eighth. Ward had 11 pass breakups and two of the team’s 14 pickoffs last year, running one of them back for a 61-yard score. As for Williams, he is dealing with a bad shoulder that could require more extensive treatment. Thanks in part to the season-ending Achilles injury to rookie Grant Delpit, the safety position was redone through unrestricted free agency, as former Minnesota free safety Andrew Sendejo has come to Cleveland, along with oft-injured ex-Oakland Raiders strong safety Karl Joseph. Former Buffalo corner Kevin Johnson and ex-Kansas City cover man Terrance Mitchell lend depth.

Seven different players returned kickoffs for Cleveland last year, but the primary return duties on both punts and kicks will fall into the hands of 5-foot-6, 153-pound veteran Jojo Natson. Natson played previously played for Indianapolis, the New York Jets, and the Los Angeles Rams. He is one of six wideouts to make the team, but he has only two career catches, so the return game is where he will do most of his work, along with Peoples-Jones on occasion. In 2019, Cleveland’s coverage teams were roughly in the middle of the pack; its returners averaged 7.1 yards per punt return and allowed opponents to get 7.6 per attempt.

Browns have had a revolving door at kicker and punter lately, so they are thankful last year’s specialists are returning. Second-year punter and Scotland native Jamie Gillan, who attended high school in Leonardtown, Maryland, had a steady season, putting 28 of 63 punts inside the coffin corner with five touchbacks, grossing 46 yards per punt and netting over 42, including a season-high 71-yard boot. As for second-year placekicker Austin Seibert, the 2019 fifth-round pick from Oklahoma (170th overall), he had a good rookie season despite missing five extra points. Seibert has converted on 25 of 29 career field-goal tries and, like most kickers, led his team in scoring with 105 points. He made all 15 attempts inside 40 yards.

Prediction

The NFL begins a new season with the Browns loaded with talent, hype, and expectations. But the long-playing narrative is that this team doesn’t know how to win. Starting 2020 with yet another head coach only adds elevation to the mountain these Browns must climb.

Yes, the Browns won in Baltimore last year. But the Ravens’ defense at the time was injury-riddled and not yet configured, and the Ravens were a few weeks away from being a squad that would dominate the league, reeling off a franchise-record 12-game win streak.

Bottom line: Baltimore is loaded, motivated, and won’t lose a game to an opponent like Cleveland.

Baltimore 41, Cleveland 13

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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