Five Mid-Major Teams to Watch in March Madness 2020

It’s time to start thinking about which teams might spring monumental upsets during March Madness. Remember when Buffalo cruised by Arizona, Middle Tennessee shocked Michigan State, and Mercer (yes, Mercer) beat Duke?

That’s the question of choice for all college basketball fans, especially when it comes to the online betting odds related to teams. Mid-march is always insane when it comes to college teams, and a lot of expectations and predictions are taking place during that time.

To identify under-the-radar teams, I first broke down ‘mid-majors’ teams into two categories. ‘Upper Mid-Majors‘ include teams affiliated with six conferences: American, Atlantic 10, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, and West Coast. “Lower Mid-Majors” include all other conferences and teams.

Then I went to the NCAA’s official stat-driven ranking system (NET) and inspected the distribution of the top 150 teams as listed as of February 1.

Here are NET’s top teams in the Upper Mid-Majors category (with overall rank/conference):

#1 San Diego St (Mountain West)

#3 Gonzaga (West Coast)

#5 Dayton (Atlantic 10)

#26 BYU (West Coast)

#33 St. Mary’s (West Coast)

#35 Houston (American)

#36 Virginia Commonwealth (Atlantic 10)

#38 Wichita St (Missouri Valley)

#40 Rhode Island (Atlantic 10), and

#43 University of Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley).

Obi Toppin is on the nation’s best big men (photo, Dayton Flyers)

Here are NET’s top teams in the Lower Mid-Majors category (with overall rank/conference):

#49 Yale (Ivy)

#54 East Tennessee (Southern)

#63 Liberty (American Sun)

#71 UNC Greensboro (Southern)

#82 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

#85 Furman (Southern)

#87 Vermont (American East)

#106 Harvard (Ivy)

#108 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

#111 UC Irvine (Big West), and

#114 New Mexico St (Western Athletic).

Bo Hodges is a force for East Tennessee (photo, Twitter)

Of these twenty teams, which squads have the best chance of pulling off upsets? Three steps brought an answer.

First, I removed major universities that play in mid-major conferences. That step eliminated Gonzaga, Houston, San Diego St, BYU, URI, and New Mexico State. Second, I focused only on those teams I’ve seen play this year. That step yielded Dayton, Wichita St, Northern Iowa, E. Tennessee, Liberty, Vermont, and Northern Colorado. Finally, I put those teams through a filter: “If I were a head coach, which mid-majors would I want to avoid in the tournament’s first weekend?”

Five teams emerged:

Dayton

East Tennessee

Northern Iowa

Wichita State, and 

Liberty. 

‘Dangerous’ is the word I’d use to describe each one of those squads.

Of course, there’s plenty of basketball yet to be played. Come conference tournament time. I’ll be back with my final look at which mid-majors might surprise elite teams in March Madness 2020.