My Picks, NFL Championship Weekend

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What more could you ask? We get two of the league’s best quarterbacks (Mahomes and Rodgers) and the best defense in the game (San Fran). The cherry on top is the league’s best rusher, Derrick Henry.


Chiefs-Titans

The Titans winning two road games can be described with only one word, IMPRESSIVE! The Chiefs had a bye due to the Dolphins victory over New England in Week 17. Kansas City came out rusty, but Patrick Mahomes flipped the script in the 2nd quarter as Houston blew a 24-point lead. The Chiefs scored 34 unanswered points and never looked back. KC’s offense can kick it into gear and score quickly.

Now, these teams get each other!

Courtesy: Can Tannehill do it again? (photo, CBSSports)

Ryan Tannehill is no slouch. But to win Sunday, he’ll need to take his game to the next level. To keep pace with KC, the Titans will have to throw the football. Tannehill will have to look-off reads and use his eyes to fake out defenders. If he does that effectively, and if Derrick Henry has another spectacular day, that combo can keep Mahomes and the KC offense off the field. Those are the keys to giving the Titans a chance to pull off a 3rd straight road upset.

Here’s a quick statistical breakdown on the Titans-Chiefs match-up:

Chiefs #2 in total yards per game (434 yards)
Titans #10 in total yards per game (359 yards)
Chiefs #12 in defensive allowing 442 yards per game
Titans #10 in defensive yards allowed 418 yards a game
Chiefs #5 in passing yards – 281 yards per game
Titans #21 in the NFL – throwing for 224 yards a game
Chiefs rushing defense ranked 26th in the league – 128 yards a game
Titans rushing defense ranked 12th – giving up 104 yards on the ground.

One thing stands out: the Chiefs run defense isn’t great (to say the least), but Henry is. Tennessee has to expose that weakness with play-action passes and runs. But we all know that the Chiefs can score in a heartbeat. #15 can make plays and make them fast.

One last thing…. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places to get a road victory. The Titans will have to communicate non-verbally at the line of scrimmage to call audibles and identify the “Mike” linebacker.

Prediction: Chiefs 31-Titans 23

49ers-Packers

The second game this weekend is the NFC Championship game featuring two old-school rivals, San Francisco and Green Bay. In the ’90s, Brett Favre had his way with the 49ers. San Francisco got their revenge in the famous “He caught it! He caught it” when Terrell Owens caught a perfect pass from Steve Young in the middle of three Packer defenders. Owens got walloped, but held the ball,l and got that ‘Favre monkey’ off their backs.

This year, both Green Bay and San Francisco finished 13-3, they both won their respective divisions, and each team had a first-round bye. That’s a lot of similarities!

Can Rodgers do it again? (photo, LiveWire)

We know that Aaron Rodgers can still make incredible plays, and (this year) he’s throwing to one of the best receivers in the game, DeVante Adams. The emergence of RB Aaron Jones has taken an enormous load off Rodgers’s shoulders. Those three represent the ‘Three-Headed Monster’ of the North!

Out West, the 49ers have a plethora of players who can make big-time plays. Either Raheem Mostert or Matt Breida can take it to the house on any given play. And as Jimmy Garoppolo improved through the season, the receivers came through as the team opened up the playbook–a gameplan switch that came after the team acquired Emmanuel Sanders, who immediately became SF’s #1 WR.

Here are important stats on the Packers and 49ers:

49ers #4 in offensive yards a game (380 yards)
Packers #18 in offensive yards a game (353 yards)
49ers #2 in defensive yards per game (282 yards)
Packers 18th in the league allowing 345 yards per game
49ers #2 in offensive rushing with 144 yards per game
Packers rushing offense #15 with 112 yards per game
49ers rushing defense #17 allowing 112 yards on the ground
Packers rushing defense #23 giving up 120 yards per game
49ers #1 passing defense with just 169 yards per game (AMAZING)
Packers pass defense #14 averaging 232 yards per game
49ers passing offense #13 at 237 yards per game
Packers passing offense #17 at 233 yards a game.

These data go a long way toward explaining why the 49ers demolished Rodgers and the Packers earlier this season, 37-8. The ‘Niners are a juggernault offensively and stout defensively. But, as we all know, after kickoff it’s anybody’s game. Still, though….

Prediction: 49ers 28-17

About Jason Feirman

A TSC columnist, Jason Feirman also co-hosts the ‘3rd & 3’ podcast on Anchor FM (also available on other podcast platforms). Known as ‘The Sports Prophet’ for his insights and analysis skills, Jason focuses predominately on the NFL, NBA, and MLB. You can follow Jason on Twitter @SportsProphet1



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