Ravens Week 15 v. NY Jets: Opponent Analysis & Game Prediction

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Injuries across the lineup and growing pains for second-year quarterback Sam Darnold have held this team back. The Ravens, on the other hand, have Super Bowl aspirations  Let’s face it: this game isn’t well suited to be the season finale for Thursday Night Football.


WHAT: Week 15, Game 14 vs. New York Jets
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. (EST); Thursday, December 12
WHERE: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore (71,008)
RECORDS: Jets, 5-8; Ravens, 11-2
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 8-2, with the Jets winning the first meeting in 1997 and the most recent game in 2016; the Ravens won all eight games in between. In Baltimore, the Ravens are 5-0 against the Jets.
TV: NFL Network (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, booth; Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink, sidelines)

About the Jets
(NOTE: all statistics are through 12 games)

The Jets were one of the original American Football League franchises when that league began playing in 1960. For the team’s first three years under owner Harry Wismer, the team was known as the Titan due to New York’s prominent skyscrapers and larger-than-life pace of the city. After three seasons, the team was nearly bankrupt, so it was sold to entertainment magnate Sonny Werblin, who renamed them the Jets in 1963. The team would be moving soon from the Polo Grounds to Shea Stadium, located in Queens near LaGuardia Airport.

The Jets moved again, to the already-standing Giants Stadium in New Jersey in 1984 before both the Jets and Giants again packed up and moved to MetLife Stadium, located where the demolished Giants Stadium once stood. The Jets were the first of the two co-tenants to play a regular-season home game at MetLife in Week 1 of the 2010 season. It was a Monday-night game against Baltimore. The Ravens won, 10-9.

In 58 full seasons, the Jets have accumulated a mere 14 postseason appearances, tied with Atlanta and Cincinnati for the league’s seventh-fewest. The Jets have won four division titles (AFL East, 1968, 1969; AFC East, 1998, 2002) and ten wild-card berths, but none has come since 2010. New York is 1-3 in the AFL/AFC Championship Game, the lone win coming after the 1968 season over Oakland. That win put them in Super Bowl 3, where they went on to upset the heavily-favored Baltimore Colts, 16-7, at Miami’s Orange Bowl.

When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, they were aligned into the AFC East alongside the Jets from 1970-83. Not including the Super Bowl meeting, the Colts were 15-12 against the Jets, with winning streaks of four and six games at different junctures. But the Jets won four of the last five meetings before the Colts moved. They were the opponent for the Colts’ first Indianapolis home game on Week 1 in 1984–a game the Jets won, 23-14.

The Jets-Ravens series is heavily lopsided in Baltimore’s favor, but there have been some noteworthy moments. In 2000, against a legendary Ravens defense, ex-Baltimore quarterback Vinny Testaverde had a big day in a 34-20 regular-season-closing Jets loss. Four years later, in New Jersey, Ed Reed’s end-zone interception late in regulation paved the way for a 20-17 Ravens overtime win.

The 2010 Ravens-Jets mentioned above game opened the then-brand-new Jets/Giants stadium. In a Sunday-night game in Charm City the following year–with the Ravens wearing their popular black jerseys–the now-deceased Joe McKnight ran back a kick return for a score. It was the last kick-return score the Ravens allowed (245 straight kickoffs covered without a touchdown) until Cincinnati’s Brandon Wilson turned the trick earlier this season. A very windy day in Baltimore in 2013 was the most memorable element in Baltimore’s 19-3 win over the Jets.

The Jets have played a rather strangely-laid-out schedule this year. In the first half, they alternated between two straight home games and two away contests until midseason. They began a pattern of home-away-home-away games. The injury-riddled Jets were 1-7 at midseason before winning three in a row, but they lost to Cincinnati on Dec. 1. Cincy is four teams–winless at the time–to beat the Jets. OUCH! The others were Buffalo, Miami, and Cleveland. New York has scored more than 20 points in just four of its first 12 games. During the team’s recent three-game winning streak (against the Giants, Washington, and Oakland), the Jets scored 34 points in all three games.

The Jets, as currently constructed, are a team that has to make the most of its offensive opportunities because they don’t get many of them. They have one of the most unbalanced offenses in the league–passing the ball 437 times (including 46 sacks allowed, an average of nearly four per game) and running it only 268 times.

The NYJ’s per-game possession average of 28:40 is among the league’s worst (26th). The third-down conversion rate has seen the team cash in on just over one of four chances. The Jets’ paltry total of six rushing touchdowns–and 163 first-half points allowed–further speaks to their non-competitiveness.

On the penalty front, the Jets have been charged with 97 accepted penalties, the AFC’s fourth-most, the league’s fifth-most (only eight behind league leader Jacksonville). The Jets’ 22 offensive holding calls and 11 defensive holding infractions are both among the league leaders, and they have been called for defensive pass interference nine times. Individually, guard Kelvin Beachum, and defensive back Darryl Roberts lead the team with seven penalties each. As far as dropped passes are concerned, the Jets have been charged with only ten of them, according to STATS, INC.

At the regular season’s three-quarter mark, the Jets have the league’s eighth-worst turnover ratio at minus-5. Those numbers include producing only 15 turnovers on defense (seven interceptions, eight fumble recoveries) while committing 20 turnovers themselves (13 interceptions, seven lost fumbles). The seven interceptions are spread out among six different defensive players, while eight different Jets have each recovered one fumble. The Jets have put the ball on the ground with 14 fumbles, but they have done a good job stripping the opposition by forcing 21 miscues.

New York is ranked 31st in the 32-team league in total offense, averaging just over 262 yards per game. The Jets are ranked 31st in rushing at 72 yards per game and 30th in passing with 190 yards per contest. At 17 points per game, the Jets are ranked 28th in scoring. Only Denver, Cincinnati, Miami, and Washington are worse. The Jets’ third-down conversion rate and first down per-game average are both 31st in the league. Defensively, the Jets are ranked sixth overall (first against the run, allowing 75 yards per game, 19th vs. the pass, 19th scoring, allowing 23.3 points per game). New York has the NFL’s best fourth-down defense, having allowed conversions on just two of ten chances (20 percent).

–-Forty-one-year-old first-year head coach Adam Gase was named the Jets’ 19th head coach in team history in January of this year after spending four seasons as the Miami Dolphins head coach. He was 23-26 (including postseason) with the Dolphins and was 4-8 through this season’s first dozen games. Gase was hired upon the dismissal of former head coach Todd Bowles. In 2015, Gase took the Bears’ rushing offense from the 27th-ranked unit in the league to 11th. At the same time, quarterback Jay Cutler posted the highest single-season passer rating of his career.

Second-year quarterback Sam Darnold was a 2018 first-round pick (third overall), selected 29 spots ahead of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. While at Southern California, Darnold was a first-team All-Pacific 12 selectee, as well as the conference’s Freshman of the Year. He also won a Rose Bowl while with the Trojans. He has had an inconsistent NFL career so far, completing just over 60 percent of his passes and playing to a passer rating of 81 with 30 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. This season, he has been sacked 27 times, completed 63 percent of his throws with 13 scores and ten pickoffs. Darnold is backed up by longtime NFL reserve David Fales, but when Darnold missed a few games due to injury, ex-Denver Bronco Trevor Simien and former Washington State starter Luke Falk both filled in.

The Jets’ ground game has been one of the NFL’s least productive despite the presence of former Pittsburgh Steeler standout Le’Veon Bell. Bell and teammate Bilal Powell have most of the team’s carries, but neither is averaging four yards-per-carry. Occasionally carrying the ball is short-term former Raven Ty Montgomery. The ground game has even had to turn to Darnold on occasion; the quarterback has the team’s fourth-most carries. Between them, Bell and Darnold have five of the Jets’ seven rushing touchdowns.

Bell is also a receiving threat out of the backfield, having hauled in 55 catches for a seven-yard average and one touchdown. He is the team’s second-highest pass-catcher behind Jamison Crowder, who leads the team with 57 receptions, a ten-yard average, and three touchdowns. Against the Ravens-=and while with Washington in 2016–he ran back a punt for a touchdown, the most recent Baltimore opponent to do so (92 punt returns ago). However, Crowder has no reception longer than 30 yards. Homegrown fourth-year receiver Robby Anderson and ex-Denver Bronco Demaryius Thomas respectively have 36 and 34 catches; Anderson has three touchdowns. Besides the kicker, the team’s leading scorer is seventh-year tight end Ryan Griffin, who has five touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and 33 catches for a nearly ten-yard average.

The offensive line is perhaps one of the worst the Ravens’ defensive front seven will see all season, having allowed 46 quarterback sacks and pacing a run game that is gaining just 3.3 yards-per-carry. At least the team does have experience at the crucial left tackle spot in eight-year NFL veteran Kelvin Beachum, who’s now in his third year in New York after four with Pittsburgh and one season in Jacksonville. Rookie Chuma Edoga is the right tackle (inactive last week); The top backup, who can play tackle and guard, is five-year man Conor McDermott. Former Ravens’ draft pick Alex Lewis and partner Tom Compton are the guards. The center is Jonotthan Harrison, now in his sixth year.

New York’s defensive line has a good mixture of youth and experience. At one end is fifth-year player Henry Anderson, who’s in his second year with the Jets after playing three in Indianapolis. Rookie Quinnen Williams, a first-round pick from Alabama, is on the other side. In the middle is the most tenured member of the trio, ten-year NFL veteran Steve McLendon, who’s now in his fourth year with the Jets after playing six seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is tied for second on the team with two sacks.

The Jets have a pair of injured linebackers with Baltimore ties that have been mostly inactive this year. They are 2014 first-round pick CJ Mosley and veteran Paul Worrilow, who signed with the Ravens before indicating he would retire. In the 3-4 base, the outside starters are Jordan Jenkins (five sacks, second-most on the team) and Brandon Copeland, a former Ravens’ reserve and Gilman School product. On the inside are Mosley (when healthy) and Neville Hewitt, the team leader with two interceptions. Hewitt is also tied for second on the team with 53 total tackles.

The Jets have had three defensive backs inactive in recent weeks–Blake Countess, kyrie Brown, and Nate Hairston. The good news is that the only Countess is a key contributor, a backup to starting strong safety Jamal Adams, a third-year player from LSU who leads the team in total tackles (64), solo stops (52) and sacks (6.5). Adams has an interception as well, but linebacker teammate Neville Hewitt leads the Jets with two pickoffs.

Marcus Maye (45 tackles), a Florida third-year product, is Adams’ deep-middle partner. The starting corners are Nate Hairston, who’s in his first year with the Jets after two seasons with the Colts and Darryl Roberts, a penalty-prone corner who is tied for second on the team with 44 solo tackles. Backup corner Brian Poole is tied for second with 53 total tackles.

Kicker Sam Ficken is a first-year kicker from Penn State. Ficken was promoted when Kaare Vedvik, obtained from Minnesota in the late summer, did not perform well. Currently, Ficken is 19-for-20 on points after touchdowns and 11-for-16 on field goals. His misses have come from long range. He leads the team with 52 points, which is testimony to how the Jets’ offense has struggled. Ficken gets good kickoff distance and excellent coverage from his teammates, who are allowing less than 20 yards per kick return. They are very good punt-coverage runners as well, allowing only 4.6 yards per runback.

Four different players have split the team’s 23 kickoff returns, led by former Raven Ty Montgomery with nine. The quartet has run back kicks at a rate of a mediocre 22 yards. But on punt returns, only Braxton Berrios–a second-year player from Miami (Fla.)–has handled those duties. Berrios has mostly played it safe, fair-catching 23 of the 38 punts that have come his way. But when he does run them back, he is averaging a respectable ten yards per return.

The Jets’ punter is Lachlan Edwards who has been called on an astounding 69 times in 12 games. Edwards has been efficient, with just two touchbacks and 21 coffin-corner punts. Thanks in part to good hang time and excellent coverage by teammates, he is grossing over 46 yards per punt and is netting close to 42.

Prediction

As the season began, it looked as though the Jets had the makings of a team on the rise. NY had a young and vibrant nucleus of players that seemed prime to win. But injuries across the lineup and growing pains for second-year quarterback Sam Darnold have held back this team. Making matters worse, the team slumped to the point that even the league’s worst teams had success against them.

Despite its shortcomings, the Jets still get prime-time games because they play in the nation’s largest media market. Primetime happens Thursday night again on the NFL Network.

There’s no question that the Ravens have more talent and better fundamental execution on both sides of the ball, as well as on special teams. That means this game isn’t well suited to be the season finale for Thursday Night Football.

Baltimore 33, New York Jets 13

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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