It’s the end of the road for the regular season in college football–conference championship week. I’m 79% for the year after going four out of five last week. Here’s what I think is in store this weekend.
Pac-12 Championship
#5 Utah vs. #13 Oregon
Spread: Utah by 6.5
Utah. That’s the keyword in this game. This game is about Utah and whether it will make the College Football Playoff. Oregon is out of the running–for the CFP that is, not for this game. ESPN’s FPI only gives the Utes a 51.1% chance of winning the PAC-12.
How so?
Despite the difference in national rankings, Utah and Oregon are comparable stats-wise.
My main concern about Utah is its schedule. They are untested outside of the Washington game. On the other side of the field, Oregon has much more experience playing in big games. They also know how to win close games and have the edge (I think) on the O-line.
I’m picking an upset. Ducks win.
Oregon 27, Utah 24
Big XII Championship
#7 Baylor vs. #6 Oklahoma
Spread: Oklahoma by 9
Was it ‘The Waco Miracle’ a few weeks ago? Well, perhaps it wasn’t a miracle, but OU came out of nowhere to nip a Bears’ team that seemingly had the game under control. This time the game isn’t about which team gets the top seed in the conference, but whether a Big 12 team will go the College Football Playoff.
The loss to OU could have been a devastating blow for the Bears. It wasn’t Since then the Bears haven’t missed a beat,
For Oklahoma, the biggest story is the return of CeeDee Lamb to an already-prolific offense. But don’t minimize the importance of another storyline–the OU defense is getting better. Whether it will be good enough against BU is the question.
Baylor is the hotter team right now, and they have momentum going into this game. Nonetheless, I think Lamb’s return could be the difference-maker, putting OU just over the top. I think OU will win narrowly and without covering.
Oklahoma 31, Baylor 28
ACC Championship
#23 Virginia vs. #3 Clemson
Spread: Clemson by 28.5
Is anyone giving UVA a chance to beat Clemson? Huh? I didn’t see any hands.
The close win over UNC in September sparked a fire in the Tigers, and they are–well–beating up on teams.
The average win margin for CU since the UNC game is 41.7 points!.
If the ‘Hoos are going to stun the college football world, then Bryce Perkins needs to have a game of a lifetime. In three out of Virginia’s last four games, Perkins has eclipsed 100 yards rushing. Perkins is critical because UVA needs to keep the ball and keep CU off the field. And that, fans, is something at which UVA excels (9th nationally in TOP).
I think Virginia is capable of keeping up with Clemson–at least for a half–in a game with a very rich line. Clemson will win, but I don’t see a four touchdown plus victory in the cards.
Clemson 35, Virginia 17
Big Ten Championship
#1 Ohio State vs. #8 Wisconsin
Spread: Ohio State by 16.5
A nightmare! That’s the word that describes what happened to Wisconsin earlier this season against the Buckeyes. So what can the Badgers do to keep history from repeating itself?
Probably nothing.
My guess is that Wisconsin’s momentum from the Minnesota win won’t carry over into this game.
While I don’t expect another blowout, I do think Ohio State will win convincingly.
Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 17
GAME OF THE WEEK
SEC Championship
#4 Georgia vs. #2 LSU
Spread: LSU by 6.5
In a game that’s a clash between the #2 scoring defense (UGA) and the #2 scoring offense (LSU), the winner is guaranteed a spot in the CFP no matter what happens elsewhere.
If Georgia’s going to win, they’ll need to slow down LSU’s passing attack and score a bit themselves.
The bad news for Georgia is that its offense isn’t great, and LSU’s defense is getting better.
In what might end up being a low-scoring game, the flat-out reality is that the Tigers have too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. The challenge for LSU is to keep from looking ahead to the CFP.
LSU 28, Georgia 20.
