With last week’s stellar performance, I’m inching my way back to 80% on the year. The challenge this week is making the right calls in a week filled with ranked matchups.
Indiana @ #9 Penn State
Spread: Penn State by 14.5
There’s no rest for this Penn State squad. Sneaky-good Indiana is up next.
If there’s good news for the Lions, it’s that Michael Penix Jr. is out for the year, and Peyton Ramsey will take over at QB. Ramsey, who has looked good in relief, has a capable receiving corps headed by Whop Philyor.
But the Hoosiers are coming into Happy Valley at the wrong time.
Penn State 38, Indiana 20
#23 Navy @ #16 Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame by 7.5
Here’s an intriguing matchup that–on paper–appears to be a mismatch. It’s not.
Navy is a threat, and Malcolm Perry is one reason why.
The issue is whether the home-standing Irish can outscore the visitors from Maryland. If so, then Ian Book will need to have one of his best games of the year. And while he might, Navy will still make it a tight game.
ND will pull it out at the end, but the Irish won’t cover.
Notre Dame 30, Navy 27
#4 Georgia @ #12 Auburn
Spread: Georgia by 2.5
The Deep South’s oldest rivalry pits Georgia against AU in a game that has ‘pick ’em’ written all over it.
With strength countered by strength, Auburn’s defensive line is one of the nation’s best, which isn’t good news for UGA’s Jake Fromm. On the other side of the field, the Tigers are good at running the ball, but the ‘Dawgs have been just as good stopping it.
What separates these teams? Georgia has been more consistent in the trenches.
Georgia 24, Auburn 17
#8 Minnesota @ #20 Iowa
Spread: Iowa by 3
I was dead wrong about Minnesota! The Gophers are for real. The only question now is how long they’ll stay unbeaten. That’s an open question this week because UMN travels to Iowa City to take on the always dangerous Hawkeyes.
Because it’s always tough to run against the Hawks, the Gophers will need to pass. The good news is that the Gophers have Tanner Morgan throwing and Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson catching.
On the other side of the field,
Iowa’s offense can’t be counted on to match UMN’s offense if Iowa’s D has trouble stopping the Gophers.
Still, I think this will be a dogfight because Iowa is always scrappy at home. The Hawks will keep it close, but Minnesota will leave with a win.
Minnesota 20, Iowa 17
GAME OF THE WEEK
#10 Oklahoma @ #13 Baylor
Spread: Oklahoma by 11
Explosive offense meets hard-nosed defense as teams in playoff contention clash in Waco. But here’s the thing: the luster for this game is a bit reduced because both teams are coming off lackluster performances.
Losing Trey Sermon hurts the Sooners, but OU is still dangerous offensively. Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, and others make it so. And even with Sermon out, OU’s ground game remains potent with Kennedy Brooks and Hurts leading the way.
The problem for the Sooners is that they haven’t played a defense like Baylor’s. The Bears’ defensive line, led by Bravvion Roy and James Lynch, is atop the Big XII in scoring defense, sacks, and tackles-for-loss. Wow!
The Bears’ problem is offense, which has been up-and-down and on-and-off. So the big question for BU is: Which offense will turn up Saturday?
But no matter how Baylor plays, it always finds a way to win. In this game, I don’t see OU holding the Bears to under 30, but I do see BU giving the OU offense trouble. BU will get another clutch win, and defy the oddsmakers while they are at it, winning outright.
Baylor 35, Oklahoma 34
