Ravens Week 3 v. Kansas City Chiefs: Opponent Analysis & Game Prediction

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In a league where offense is emphasized more than ever, the Chiefs have been more consistent than the Ravens over an extended period. KC is prolific in league terms.


WHAT: Week Three at Kansas City Chiefs
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, September 22
WHERE: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, Missouri (76,416)
RECORDS: Ravens, 2-0; Chiefs, 2-0
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Chiefs lead, 5-3, having won the last two meetings in 2015 and 2018 after the teams traded three-game win streaks against each other. In Kansas City, the Ravens are 2-1 in regular season play, and they also won a 2010 wild-card game there.
TV: WJZ-TV, Channel 13 (Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts, booth; Evan Washburn, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth)
REFEREE: John Hussey

About the Chiefs

This is one of the Ravens’ two “placement” games in 2019, that is, games determined by their finish in the 2018 standings. The scheduling formula dictated that the Ravens would play an AFC West team on the road if that team finished in the same spot in that division as the Ravens did in theirs and both teams won their divisions. Last year, the Ravens played the entire AFC West, with the formula putting the Kansas City game on the road. So that explains why the Ravens have had to travel to Kansas City two straight years.

The Ravens’ other placement game this year is their home clash with Houston. When the Ravens play the entire AFC West again in 2021, Kansas City will visit Baltimore. But if the placements work out just right before then, the Ravens and Chiefs could also meet in 2020, and that game would also be in Baltimore.

The Chiefs began their existence as the Dallas Texans in 1960 when the American Football League began operations. Three years later, owner Lamar Hunt, one of those primarily responsible for the invention of the Super Bowl, moved the team to Kansas City. The team won the 1962 AFL title as the Texans, then won the league again in 1966 and 1969 as the Chiefs. Those last two wins put the Chiefs into Super Bowl I (losing to Green Bay) and Super Bowl IV (beating Minnesota).

In 59 complete seasons, the Chiefs have accumulated 21 playoff berths with 11 division championships and ten wild-card spots. Under the present-day AFC West banner, the Chiefs have five division titles, including in each of the past three seasons. However, Kansas City has a lifetime postseason record of just 10-19, the second-worst win percentage in NFL history, with only Cincinnati’s 5-14 (.263) ranking below KC. The Chiefs have advanced to just two post-merger AFC Championship Games, losing to Buffalo after the 1993 season in a game that put the Bills in their fourth straight Super Bowl. The Chiefs lost to New England last year.

When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, that team won just three of eight meetings with the Chiefs. That string includes Kansas City’s 44-24 win at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium in 1970. It was the second-ever “Monday Night Football” telecast.

–The Ravens and Chiefs have had a colorful, albeit short, history against each other. The Chiefs were the Ravens’ first-ever Thursday Night opponent. They blasted the Ravens, 35-8, in 1998. Six years later, Kansas City won again in Baltimore. It was the Ravens’ only loss in a ‘Ring of Honor’ induction game (for Michael McCrary that year). The Ravens topped the Chiefs in a thrilling 2009 home opener. Then, in 2015, Kansas City won a 34-14 game that featured the Ravens’ infamous wearing of mustard-yellow uniform pants. Kansas City won again last year at home in an OT battle.

–Arrowhead Stadium is the sixth-largest NFL stadium in seating capacity. It is part of the Harry S. Truman Sports Complex, along with nearby Kauffman Stadium, home of baseball’s Kansas City Royals. Arrowhead opened in 1972, one year before Kauffman (then called Royals Stadium) debuted, with Tartan Turf. The turit f was switched to natural grass in 1994. In 2010, the stadium underwent a renovation that cost $375 million. It is the largest sports facility in the state of Missouri and has hosted numerous soccer matches and five Big 12 Championship Games.

After opening the 2019 season with two road games, the Chiefs are playing their home opener against Baltimore. It starts a stretch of three home games in four weeks, and five games in seven weeks. Following that, Kansas City plays four of its next six games on the road, including its bye week and a game in Mexico City, which was rescheduled from last year’s postponement due to questionable field conditions.

The Chiefs’ high-scoring offense has scored 25 or more points in an NFL-record 24 straight games. The team tallied 565 points last year, scoring at least 131 in every quarter, and is one of the most prolific offenses in league history. That output ranks third all-time, bettered only by the 2013 Denver Broncos (606) and the 2007 New England Patriots (589). Kansas City has similarly started this season, averaging 34 points per game over the first two weeks. To that, it add its most prolific quarter in team history with a 28-point second-period outburst in last week’s win at Oakland.

Currently, the Chiefs sport a modest plus-3 turnover ratio through two weeks, tied with Baltimore and several other teams for the league’s third-best. They have already intercepted three passes and lost just one fumble on offense. Despite the team’s quick-strike capability, the Chiefs are averaging 31:55 worth of possession time per game, tied for sixth in the league.

Kansas City has played rather clean football through the first two weeks by committing only 15 accepted penalties, tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. They have not committed a false start or delay-of-game infraction, but they have been hit with five holding calls. Starting center Austin Reiter has been flagged for two holding penalties, but he is the only player on the team with more than one infraction against him. According to STATS, Inc., the Chiefs have been credited with just two dropped passes in two games.

Head coach Andy Reid is the 13th head coach in franchise history. He is in his seventh year with the Chiefs and his 21st season as an NFL head coach. Reid is 67-31 in regular-season play with the Chiefs. He has a career regular-season mark of 197-124-1. Reid has the most wins of any head coach who hasn’t won a Super Bowl. His 209 overall wins tie him with Chuck Noll for sixth on the all-time list. In five career games coaching against the Ravens, Reid is 4-1.

In Reid’s career as a head and assistant coach, he has coached in three Super Bowls and nine NFC Championship Games, as well as one AFC title contest. Reid is also a three-time NFL Coach of the Year. Notable assistants on Reid’s staff include former Ravens senior defensive assistant and secondary coach Steve Spagnuolo, who is the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator; former Maryland assistant Brendan Daly (defensive line); and former NFL players Eric Bienemy (offensive coordinator) and Sam Madison (defensive backs).

The Chiefs are ranked third in total offense (26th rushing, first passing at over 405 yards per game, fourth scoring). Kansas City is converting 54.2 percent of its third-down plays, tied for the league’s fifth-best rate. Its red-zone touchdown pace is 37.5 percent, tied for sixth-worst. Defensively, the Chiefs are slightly improved, ranking 19th overall (13th vs. rush, 20th vs. pass, tied for ninth scoring, allowing 18 points per game). The red-zone defense has allowed touchdowns 33.3 percent of the time, tied for the league’s sixth-best mark.

–-Third-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, a 2017 first-round pick from Texas Tech, is In his second year as the team’s starter after the team traded Alex Smith to Washington. Mahomes is one of only two quarterbacks through two weeks to have had seven touchdown passes with no interceptions (Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is the other). Mahomes already has 14 passes of 20 or more yards this year–most in the league. His 821 passing yards is also the league-high.

Last year, Mahomes became the third quarterback in NFL history (P. Manning, Brady, the others) to have 40 or more touchdown passes within the first 12 games of a season. Brady and Manning won league MVP awards when they accomplished that feat, and Mahomes followed suit in 2018. Mahomes and Manning are the only quarterbacks ever to have had a single season with over 5000 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes. Mahomes is 2-0 against Heisman Trophy winners, having beaten Jackson and Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield last year.

The Chiefs have been so successful with their passing game that they don’t feel the need to run the ball that much. They have rushed the ball 48 times and ran 80 pass plays (including sacks allowed) through two games. Former Philadelphia and Buffalo running back LeSean McCoy is now reunited with Reid, his former coach. McCoy leads the team with 104 rushes on 21 carries through two games. Six-year journeyman running back Damien Williams is McCoy’s backup and has 22 carries. Anthony Sherman is the fullback.

Williams, who incurred a knee injury in last week’s game, also has 87 yards on nine catches out of the backfield. But that doesn’t compare to the Chiefs’ outside targets, including Sammy Watkins, who’s now in his second year in Kansas City. Watkins has 15 catches for a 16-yard average and co-leads the league with three scores. Tight end Travis Kelce has ten receptions and a 19-yard pace. He is only the second tight end in league history to have three straight 1000-yard seasons (Greg Olsen is the other). With Tyreek Hill sidelined with a broken collarbone, DeMarcus Robinson, who’s a four-year veteran from Florida, stepped up with a career-high six catches and two touchdowns in last week’s win at Oakland.

While not regarded as one of the league’s premier left tackles, Eric Fisher has been steady, if not spectacular. Fisher was the top overall draft pick in 2013, a year that saw five tackles and nine offensive linemen taken in the first round. However, Fisher probably won’t play Sunday with a groin injury. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is in his fourth year with the team and has started/played every snap of his 112 career games with the Chiefs and Cleveland. Right guard Andrew Wylie is a former Colt who got moved from right guard to left guard.

The Chiefs’ base defense has switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 this year. Florida State-bred rookie Derrick Nnadi, a player they selected in the third round after trading two picks to Baltimore to move up 11 spots, is one of the tackles. He’s alongside Chris Jones, who became the first player in league history to get a sack in 11 straight games. His 15.5 sacks last year were third-most in the league. Alex Okafor and Frank Clark are the defensive ends. Clark played his rookie contract on the dominant Seattle defense, leading that team with 13 sacks last year before being traded to the Chiefs for a first-round pick and other considerations.

The Chiefs’ linebackers are an experienced group. But in the new 4-2-5 base look, there aren’t as many of them on the field. The team’s leading tackler is ILB and Dallas free-agent pickup Anthony Hitchens, who had ten or more tackles in five of seven games during one stretch last year. He had finished second on the Cowboys’ squad in tackles in 2017. Hitchens’ interior partner is Reggie Ragland, a Buffalo draft pick who is in his third season with the Chiefs after recovering from a torn knee ligament.

Kansas City has overhauled its secondary this year. The team is going with two new corners in Charvarius Ward, a second-year player cast aside by Dallas, and former Washington Redskins free agent Bashaud Breeland, who led the Chiefs with eight tackles last week at Oakland. Baltimore-area product Kendall Fuller (Good Counsel), acquired by the team as part of the Alex Smith trade with Washington, is the slot corner and has 13 tackles and a sack in two games. Fuller broke up four passes in last year’s meeting with the Ravens.

Daniel Sorenson is in his sixth year with the team, but only his third as the starting strong safety.  He has filled in for Eric Berry, who had torn his Achilles. The strong safety is former Arizona Cardinals standout Tyrann Mathieu, who spent one season in Houston before coming to the Chiefs. Second-round pick Juan Thornhill has 11 tackles in two games.

Mecole Hardman, a young receiver taken in the second round from Georgia, is the primary kick returner. Hardman has averaged 21 yards on three runbacks. Punt returner DeAnthony Thomas spent last year on injured reserve (broken leg), but is back and averaging 5.6 per runback. The Chiefs’ coverage teams are allowing an average of just five yards per punt return and 22.7 yards on kick runbacks.

Former Georgia Tech and Carolina Panthers kicker Harrison Butker was a 2017 seventh-round pick. He’s 4-for-4 on field goals so far this year. He set an NFL record with 38 field goals as a rookie, but surprisingly missed four extra points last season. His 62 successful field goals over his first two years stand as the club record.

–The most senior player on the roster is 14th-year punter Dustin Colquitt. He’s originally a 2005 third-round pick. He is grossing 41.2 yards and netting 36.2 yards per punt this year. Colquitt’s father, Craig, punted for two Super Bowl-winning teams in Pittsburgh. Brother Britt has punted for Tennessee and Minnesota.

Prediction

Even though it’s already the season’s third week, this game is the Chiefs’ home opener. It will be played before one of the league’s loudest crowds. The Ravens, with a high-decibel crowd of their own, won’t be intimidated. Baltimore has history on its side–playing well at Arrowhead.

But in a league where the offense is emphasized more than ever, the Chiefs have been more consistent than the Ravens–prolific in league-terms–over an extended period. For sure, the Ravens’ new look is promising, and I think the Ravens will give KC plenty of prep worry. But Baltimore’s ‘O’ is a work in progress. This team still needs to work out kinks, including in its offensive line. Perhaps more importantly in this game, the Ravens’ promising secondary has been hit by untimely injuries. That’s a bad omen when facing Patrick Mahomes.

It should be another entertaining game between these two, and a close one, too.

Kansas City 26, Baltimore 23

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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