On Sunday, sixty-five years after Bannister ran a sub-four minute mile, another historic milestone may be reached at the London Marathon.
On May 6, 1954, three university students toed the line at Iffley Road Track. Two of the runners, Chris Chataway and Chris Brasher, were there to pace their teammate, who was running to be the first man to race a mile in under four minutes. Roger Bannister did just that by running a 3:59.4 mile on the cinder track. History was made that day in Oxford, England.
On Sunday, history may be made again on the streets of London, England. It’s the running of the London Marathon, and Eliud Kipchoge, who set a new marathon record last fall in Berlin (with a dazzling time of 2:01:39), may go, like Bannister, where no man has ever been.
Kipchoge may well time under 2 hours for a 26.2-mile race. He may not be alone, either. At least two competitors will race the streets of London with him: Mo Farah and Shura Kitata. Both plan to match strides with Kipchoge and either of them could beat him in the 2-hour quest.
Kipchoge (center) with Kitata (left) and Farah (photo, Runner’s World)
Of course, there have been many record-breaking performances. Beamon’s long jump in Mexico City, Gable’s un-scored on six matches in Munich, and Ripken’s streak, all come to mind. But the run against the two-hour marathon barrier has been relentless. If Kipcoge or Farah or Kitata do not break it tomorrow, I think it will be shattered before long.
What does it mean (in terms of ordinary time) to race a marathon in under 2 hours?
Well, imagine an average high school track where four laps of a 440-yard track equal a mile. The math here is simple. If you run four laps under 60 seconds each, then you’ll run the mile under four minutes–just like Bannister. Although the men’s mile record today is far below that 4-minute time, every serious runner would like to accomplish it.
But what Kipcoge did last fall in Berlin was to average 69.19 seconds for each 440-yard lap of a race that lasted 26.2 miles. The record–2:01:39 or 13.1 miles per hour–involves an average pace of 4:38.4 minutes per mile.
Like Bannister, Kipcoge will have plenty of competition, and I image Farah and Kitata will share–along with some others–the work of being a front-runner. However, somewhere in the last miles, one runner will “break” the others with a surge well below the 4:34-mile average needed to break the 2-hour wall.
A friend once described the marathon as a 20-mile warm-up before a 10 km race (the last 6.2 miles).
The “wall” at or around twenty miles is well-known by any racer of the marathon. If the wall is encountered, the last 10km is a long misery. If I were able, I would like to be with Kipcoge and the others at the North Dock and West India Quay area of London. There, if able, I would run with them at around a 4:30 pace for the mile between 19 and 20 of the race.
Then, as the turn is made for the final 6.2 miles along the straight run to the finish, runners would either go with the leaders or sink into a top-ten place. Someone along that stretch (like Alberto Salazar did in New York) will throw in a surge of speed well below the average of 69 seconds per lap and win–perhaps breaking the 2-hour barrier.
Every event in sports requires mental and emotional strength and faith. Kipchoge is well known for his belief in the power of the mind and how it controls him as he races for such a distance and at such a speed. Perhaps just past the West India Quay, his strong mind will take over for his body, and he will surge past 13.1 miles per hour.
If he does, he’ll enter a place reserved for ones like Bannister.
***You can watch the London Marathon live on NBC Sports Network. Coverage begins Sunday at 4 a.m. Eastern with the race starting at 5 a.m. Eastern.
