Mid-majors are primed to make headlines this week.
It’s the best week in sports–the opening round of March Madness, that is. David vs. Goliath is a big reason why. Smaller schools go up against the big boys and sometimes come out on top.
Last year, Loyola (IL) made it all the way to the Final Four. Maryland-Baltimore County executed Virginia—the first time in history that a #16-seed toppled a #1-seed.
This year, there’s no shortage of good mid-major teams. So when you make out your brackets, pay attention to the mid-majors. Which ones? Here are my picks–a Baker’s Dozen of solid teams.
BUFFALO (Mid-American), 31-3, #6-seed v. #11-seed Arizona St. or St. John’s (play-in game): Nate Oats has veterans across the board led by CJ Massinburg and former JUCO player of the year, Jeremy Harris. I wouldn’t be surprised if UB pulls another March upset, just like it did last year against #2-seed Arizona.
HOUSTON (American), 31-3, #3-seed v. #14-seed Georgia St. It feels foolish to classify the Cougars as ‘mid-major, but a mid-major the Cougars are—along with other American conference teams, like UConn, Memphis, and Cincinnati–teams that the major conferences don’t want. It took a 70-foot buzzer shot to enable Michigan to beat the Cougars last year and advance to the Final Four–a spot that Houston could earn this time ’round.
UTAH STATE (Mountain West), 28-6, #8-seed v. #9-seed Washington: ‘Gritty.’ That’s the Aggies. I was looking forward to seeing USU play Nevada (another of my favorites) in the Mountain West championship, but San Diego State upset the Wolfpack. Utah State then cruised by the Aztecs to take the crown. USU is for real.
WOFFORD (Southern), 29-4, #7-seed v. #10-seed Seton Hall: What younger basketball fans don’t realize is that many of today’s major teams were once affiliated with the Southern Conference. That was in the days before the SEC, ACC, and the old Big East. Wofford–a team on a 20-game winning streak–is keeping up that tradition. The Terriers are a team that plays well under pressure—just what it needs to do this week. Fletcher Magee and Nathan Hooper are especially impressive.
NEW MEXICO STATE (Western Athletic), 30-4, #12-seed v. #5-seed Auburn: NMSU plays in the diminished Western Athletic Conference, a league that includes a mishmash of teams, like Grand Canyon, Seattle, and Utah Valley. The Aggies win outside of the WAC, too. This year that included New Mexico twice and Washington State. But the most impressive performance was a 4-point loss at Kansas. The starting line-up is solid and the bench may be the deepest in the tournament. The problem is that State gets the yips in March. If NMSU can self-manage, it will be a threat.
MURRAY STATE (Ohio Valley), 27-4, #12-seed v. #5-seed Marquette: Remember this name: Temetrius Jamel ‘Ja’ Morant. With pro scouts drooling, Morant is the primary reason why MSU is in the tournament. The big question is how the rest of the Racers will match up against high-profile players. We’ll find out soon.
NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon), 26-8, #14-seed v. #3-seed Texas Tech: Not since Northern Iowa (remember the Kansas upset?) has a directional school made this much noise in major college basketball. You’ll be impressed by big man Drew McDonald and his partners, Dantez Walton and Tyler Sharpe. Beware the Norse!
NEVADA (Mountain West), 29-4, #7-seed v. #10 Florida: Nevada started the year hot and with a national ranking, too. Then something happened. The Pack went from being on cruise control to playing herky-jerky ball. A lack of talent can’t be the explanation because the Martin brothers are terrific. This team has emotion-management issues. That’s deadly any time of the year, especially in March.
LIBERTY (Atlantic Sun), 28-6, #12-seed v. #5-seed Mississippi State: A newcomer to the A-Sun, the Flames got my attention early in the year when they waltzed into Westwood and beat UCLA. Balanced scoring is the key for this team. If Scottie James isn’t leading LU in scoring, then Georgie Pacheco-Oriz is. LU is scary when it’s firing on all cylinders.
BELMONT (Ohio Valley), 26-5, #11-seed v. #11-seed Temple (play-in game): This Catholic school from Nashville can beat the big boys–Middle Tennessee, W. Kentucky, and UCLA, to name three. Dylan Windler scores and works the boards, while Kevin McClain and Grayson Murphy contribute. This is a good team that almost didn’t make the NCAA’s because it lost in the OVC championship game to Murray. The Bruins need to make the most of its newfound life.
VERMONT (America East), 27-6, #13-seed v. #4-seed Florida State: Year after year, you can bet your bottom dollar that UVM will win the America East. And every once in a while, the Catamounts stretch their muscles in March–just as they did in 2005 when they knocked out Syracuse in the first round. This could be one of those years.
YALE (Ivy League), 22-7, #14-seed v. #3-seed LSU: This team is capable of springing upsets just the way Princeton used to do. Alex Copeland is a big-time scorer and Miye Oni was the Ivy’s Player of the Year. With corruption problems facing LSU (coach and player suspended), the distracted Tigers may meet their match in these underrated Bulldogs.
CALIFORNIA, IRVINE (Big West), 30-5, #13-seed v. #4-seed Kansas State: The Anteaters may be the best college team in California, which may not be saying much given mediocre (or worse) play at Cal, Stanford, UCLA, and Southern Cal. But the knock against Irvine is that it hasn’t played any Top 25 teams. Out-of-conference games against Life Pacific and Cal Baptist mean that nobody takes this conference champ seriously. And that may be UCI’s biggest advantage.
VEGAS ODDS (updated March 20)
Thursday Games
Marquette -4 MURRAY STATE
WOFFORD -2.5 Seton Hall
Louisiana St. -7 YALE
NEVADA -2 Florida
Auburn -6 NEW MEXICO STATE
Florida St. -9 VERMONT
Maryland -4 BELMONT
Friday Games
HOUSTON -11.5 Georgia St.
Texas Tech -14 NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Kansas St. -5 UC IRVINE
Mississippi St. -6 LIBERTY
UTAH ST. -3 Washington
BUFFALO Even Arizona St.
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NOTE (3/19/19): My analysis was done prior to Selection Sunday. March success is very much a matter of match-ups and, after looking at the brackets, the match-ups look particularly appealing for a mid-major team that I didn’t include above–Old Dominion (Conference USA), 26-8, 14-seed v. #3-seed Purdue. (Purdue -12.5)
