What a weekend! Four of the best quarterbacks. Four of the best coaches. Four teams with Pro Bowlers all over the field.
The NFL and its fans want offense. Wish granted! The top four scoring offenses in the league will be playing on Championship Sunday.
But wait! While it appears that offense has taken over the league, I ask you to stop and look at how these final four defenses played last week.
Defense isn’t dead! If you don’t play well enough on that side of the ball, your team is likely going home for the winter.
That’s saying something because the quarterbacks in these games are–in a word–fantastic! Just think about what we may see on Super Bowl Sunday. We might get Brady vs. Brees–two starters over 40 years of age. Or we could go in the opposite direction–with young guns Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff going head-to-head.
In the end, these Championship Sunday games aren’t easy to pick. We have four of the best quarterbacks in the league, four of the best coaches in the NFL, and four teams with Pro Bowl players all over the field.
On a neutral field, the outcomes could be different, but that’s now how things will shake out. So … here are my picks.
Rams vs. Saints
The Rams can be exposed in the running game, while the Saints have the perfect combo in the backfield to neutralize the power of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. Plus, who’s going to cover Michael Thomas? The Rams should double Thomas and perhaps play a zone to take away short throws to Kamara and Ginn Jr. The key for LA’s defense is to apply pressure without blitzing too much. Why? Drew Brees eats the blitz alive.
Todd Gurley (photo, The Sporting News)
Offensively the Rams must try to establish a running game early and often. Doing that will open up play-action passes downfield to Cooks and Woods. It’s also important to incorporate different screen passes to Gurley–to get him in space for big yardage. The Rams are going to have to go long downfield, too, to build momentum and confidence while quieting the crowd.
I don’t see many turnovers in this game. I predict that both teams will start conservatively, but that the action will pick up quickly as Sean Payton and Sean McVay go back to the play calling that got their teams where they are.
In the end, I predict the Saints will win in a squeeker.
New Orleans 31, Los Angeles 29
Patriots vs. Chiefs
Bill Belichick loves to take away what the opposition does best. He’ll double team wide receivers. He’ll spy on mobile quarterbacks. He’ll throw eight men in the box to take away the running game.
Patrick Mahomes (photo, NFL.com)
The problem this week is that Kansas City has a ton of weapons, including hands-down NFL MVP, Patrick Mahomes.
If Bill takes away Hill, then Kelce will beat you. If he takes away Kelce, then Hill will destroy you. So, just what will Billy Boy draw up to combat this explosive offense?
He may allow the Chiefs to run the ball–at least to an extent–as long as they keep big plays to a minimum.
Defensively, the Chiefs need to take a long and hard look at the film from last week’s Chargers-Pats game. Then, they must do the complete opposite of what L.A. did. Anthony Lynn played the same defense he played against the Ravens a week earlier and that, my friends, was a huge mistake! Worse yet, Lynn never made adjustments to stay in the game.
Lesson learned? Play man coverage against the Patriots. Tom Brady is a master of dismantling zone defenses, and he’ll pick apart the Chiefs’ defense if they go zone.
If the Patriots can get their ground game established early with White, Burkhead and Michel, that will open up Gronk and Edelman over the middle on play action passes. The Chiefs’ defense still has some holes, especially with Eric Berry out at safety. But K.C. has continued to improve on defense, and it has one of the best home field advantages in the game.
My prediction? The team that establishes a better rushing attack will likely win Sunday. For KC, that means Mahomes will have to run for first downs, including getting big gains, too, because the Pats will focus on not getting beat deep.
In the end, I think the Chiefs are hitting it on all cylinders. For one thing, they play faster than just about any team in the league. Besides, watching Tyreek Hill run is comparable to looking at a NASCAR vehicle whizzing around the track.
The Chiefs can score (literally) in seconds. Even if they’re down late in the 4th quarter, I’m confident that Mahomes can lead his team downfield for the game-winning score.
That’s why I make it….
Kansas City 34, New England 28
