NFL Week 16: Ravens-Chargers Prediction

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This game will be tough and competitive–just as it was in Kansas City a few weeks ago–and the outcome will be the same. 


WHAT: Week 16, Game 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. (ET); Saturday, December 22
WHERE: ROKiT Field at StubHub Center; Carson, Cal. (27,000)
RECORDS: Ravens, 8-6; Chargers, 11-3
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Ravens lead, 6-5, with the teams having alternated wins in their last six overall meetings; in San Diego, the Chargers lead, 4-3, with the Ravens having won on two of their last three visits
TV: WBAL-TV, Channel 11; NFL Network (Mike Tirico, Kurt Warner, booth; Peter Schrager, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Dennis Pitta, booth; Justin Forsett, sidelines)
REFEREE: Clete Blakeman

About the Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers began their existence at the birth of the American Football League in the same area in which they play now. Decades ago, the Chargers played one season in Los Angeles–sharing the LA Coliseum with the Rams–under a plan devised by owner and hotel tycoon, Barron Hilton, before moving in 1961 to San Diego’s expanded Balboa Park. Then, in 1966, the team moved into what is now Qualcomm Stadium and stayed there through the end of the 2016 season.

How did the Chargers get that nickname? Hilton liked hearing Dodgers’ fans yell “Charge!” whenever the bugler prompted the crowd.

The Chargers have not made the playoffs since 2013. But in 58 full seasons, they’ve made 18 postseason appearances with 14 division championships (none since 2009) and four wild-card berths. In their AFL days, they made the championship game five times, winning one (1963). As far as the modern-day AFC is concerned, the Chargers have made the conference title game four times, losing in 1980, 1981, and 2007, but winning at Pittsburgh in 1994. That win put the Chargers into Super Bowl 29, where they were blown out by San Francisco, 49-26.

–When the Baltimore Colts were part of the NFL, that team played the Chargers five times, winning twice. In San Diego, the Chargers won one of three games against the Colts. San Diego was also the recipient of many Colts players that were traded away during the ’70s, including quarterback Johnny Unitas and safety Bruce Laird.

–The Chargers are being temporarily housed in a soccer facility–ROKiT Field at StubHub Center in Carson–near the campus of Cal State-Dominguez Hills. It’s the home of MLS’s Los Angeles Galaxy. In 2020, the Chargers will move into a new stadium in Inglewood near the Forum (the former home of the NBA’s Lakers), sharing it with the Los Angeles Rams. It will just like what’s done on the East Coast with the Jets and Giants sharing MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

-The Ravens-Chargers series has had a few colorful moments. In 1998 in San Diego, Michael McCrary’s “leaping” penalty nullified a field goal. Given a second chance, the Chargers scored a touchdown and won, 14-13. In 2000, the Ravens (coming off a bye week) overwhelmed Ryan Leaf and the Chargers, 24-3, to clinch the Ravens’ first-ever playoff berth. In 2006, Todd Heap avoided a hit from Maryland grad, Shawne Merriman, and dove into the end zone to give the Ravens a last-minute, 16-13 home win. Three years later, Ray Lewis’ fourth-down stop of Darren Sproles sealed a 31-26 road victory. In 2012, Ray Rice’s fourth-and-29 conversion helped send the game to overtime, where the Ravens won, 16-13.

–The Chargers stumbled to a 1-2 start this year, with one of the losses coming to crosstown rivals, the Rams. But, after that, the team won six in a row. The bye week proved to be no obstacle, as LAC won two of those games after the off-week. Following a narrow home loss to Denver, the Chargers have won four straight to clinch a playoff berth.

–Rest, baby! LAC will have had nine days of rest prior to playing the Ravens.

–Next? After the Baltimore game, the Chargers travel to Denver to end the regular season. The goal? Overtake the Chiefs for the AFC West title. Currently, the Chargers are the AFC’s No. 5 seed, one slot ahead of Baltimore.

The Chargers have outscored their opponents by 97 points this year, with most of that differential coming in the second quarter (141-60). Surprisingly, Los Angeles has been outscored in the first quarters of their games (95-78).

–Run and throw. The Chargers are known as a passing team, but they have run the ball 353 times and passed it 480 (including sacks allowed) for a minus-127 run-pass ratio that isn’t far off Baltimore’s total. They have scored 47 total touchdowns, 31 of them through the air.

—Currently, the Chargers sport a plus-3 turnover ratio, but there have not been many possession changes due to fumbles in games involving this team. Los Angeles has forced only three lost fumbles, tied for the fewest in the league, and has coaxed only 15 takeaways from its opponents, only four more than the Ravens. The Chargers have fumbled the ball only 12 times, losing just four of them. According to STATS, Inc., the Chargers have been charged with just 14 dropped passes all year–with no player blamed for more than three.

—Los Angeles has committed 99 accepted penalties, the same total Tampa Bay brought into last week’s meeting with the Ravens. That total is just two fewer than that of the Ravens. The Chargers’ seven encroachment penalties are the league’s third-most, and they have been called for offensive holding 16 times. There have been ten defensive holding calls and nine unnecessary-roughness fouls, the league’s second-most.

—Second-year head coach Anthony Lynn (20-10), who turns 50 this Friday, is the first African-American head coach in franchise history and the 16th the Chargers have employed. He came to the team after serving as Buffalo’s assistant head coach and running backs coach, and has worked for five other NFL teams. Notable assistants on Lynn’s staff include offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt (Ravens’ tight ends coach, 1997-98), defensive coordinator and ex-Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley, and assistant special teams coach Keith Burns, who was the victim of a crunching Ray Lewis block on Chris McAlister’s missed field-goal return in 2002 during a Monday-night game against Denver.

—The Chargers are a balanced team, ranking in the top ten on both sides of the ball. In total offense, they are ranked sixth (12th in rushing, 8th in passing, and 4th in scoring at over 28 points per game). They are eighth defensively (ninth vs. rush, eighth vs. pass, eighth scoring). Offensively, they are ranked 12th in both third-down and red-zone situations,. On defense, they are surprisingly ranked 24th on third-down plays by their opponents.

–-Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers is a seven-time Pro Bowl pick who will be making his 207th straight start–the longest current streak among quarterbacks. His 112.4 rating is third-best in the league and with 31 touchdown passes and eight pickoffs, he is one of four quarterbacks in the league with more than 30 scoring tosses and fewer than ten interceptions. In seven meetings with Baltimore, he has completed over 67 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a gaudy 105.5 passer rating. Rivers has thrown two or more touchdown passes in 13 of 14 games this year. He is backed up by former West Virginia star and ex-New York Jet quarterback Geno Smith.

—On the ground, fourth-year running back Melvin Gordon has missed the last three games (knee), but the team is optimistic he can play Saturday. Gordon has 802 rushing yards, averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry and nine touchdowns. Austin Ekeler (neck, concussion) has 496 yards, a five-yard average, and two scores. Rookie Justin Jackson has also found the end zone twice. Receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Travis Benjamin have carried the ball 19 times between them. The Chargers are not shy about running reverses and end-around plays.

—Top receiver Allen set a Chargers franchise record with 102 catches last year. He has 88 so far this season (and 1074 yards)–despite missing last week’s game at Kansas City (hip). Allen has a 12-yard average and six touchdowns. Gordon and Ekeler are next on the chart, having combined for 83 receptions out of the backfield and scoring seven times. Tyrell Williams carries a 16-yard average and five touchdowns, while lanky wideout Mike Williams has nine touchdowns among his 37 catches and five scores in his last four games. Veteran tight end Antonio Gates has 25 catches with two touchdowns. He’s the backup to Virgil Green (17 receptions, one TD). Tight end Hunter Henry (knee) has missed the whole season but is back practicing.

—The right side of the Chargers’ offensive line features two players not even listed on the depth chart as the season began. Right guard Michael Schofield was on the Denver team that won Super Bowl 50. He joined the Chargers last year as part of a line that allowed a league-low 18 sacks. The team has allowed 29 this season. Sam Tevi, the first-year backup left tackle, starts at right tackle. Center Mike Pouncey is an ex-Miami Dolphin and seven-year NFL veteran. 2017 third-round pick Dan Feeney starts at left guard. The left tackle is Russell Okung, a solid eight-year veteran, who was originally drafted by Seattle in 2010.

—Defensive end Melvin Ingram has missed just one game this year and has seven of the team’s 34 sacks. He and the opposite end, Joey Bosa, combined for 23 sacks last year–the second-most among teammates.  Ingram made his first Pro Bowl in 2017. Bosa, who has played in just five games this year due to injuries, has four sacks in that limited action. On the inside, Darius Philbin has supplanted the injured Corey Liuget, while Brandon Mebane won a Super Bowl while playing with Seattle. Backup Damion Square has three sacks.

—The Chargers’ linebacking corps, which is not very deep, has had season-ending knee injuries to Denzel Perryman and Ryan White. Outside linebacker Jatavis Brown is second on the team with 56 solo tackles, The other starting linebackers–outside man Uchenna Nwosu and middle backer Kyle Emanuel–have combined for just 30 tackles and 3.5 sacks. The top outside backup is first-year player Tre’Von Johnson, who was signed when Perryman went on IR.

—The Chargers have one of the league’s more formidable safety tandems. They are rookie first-round pick Derwin James and undrafted fifth-year partner Jahleel Addae. Respectively, they rank first and fourth on the team in tackles with 93 and 70 total stops. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound James also has 3.5 sacks, 12 pass breakups and three of the team’s 12 interceptions. He’s in the for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. James is the only NFL player with over 90 tackles, three sacks, and three interceptions. At corner, second-year player Desmond King has three interceptions and ten pass breakups. Two-time Pro Bowl pick Casey Hayward has six breakups. Fellow starter Michael Davis, a first-year undrafted player, is a starter. Backup corner Trevor Williams, a Calvert Hall graduate, is on injured reserve with a knee ailment.

—Backup corner Desmond King is a fearless punt returner. He has called for only six fair catches in 27 punts and is averaging 13.6 yards per return with a 73-yard touchdown to his credit. He has also run back 20 kicks for a 23.9-yard average. But no return has been longer than 40 yards. The Chargers’ kick coverage team has allowed returns at a 21.9-yard-per-return rate. The punt-coverage team has fared much worse–allowing nearly ten yards a runback, including a 91-yard touchdown.

–In limited duty, kicker Michael Badgley, who was signed when Caleb Sturgis was waived, ending the Chargers’ seemingly-endless merry-go-round at the position. He has scored 65 points by converting 14 of 15 field-goal tries with one missed PAT. His predecessor had missed four field goals and–get this–an astounding six conversions. Veteran punter Donnie Jones, who has punted for Dallas and the Rams during his long career, has just one touchback in 35 punts. He has put 12 kicks in the coffin corner. Poor coverage has lowered his net average to 37.8 yards.

Prediction

None of the circumstances associated with this game plays into the Ravens’ hands.

√They will be on a short week.

√They will travel from coast-to-coast.

√They’ll play the AFC’s most balanced team.

√The home team has had extended rest.

In the past, the Ravens would be heavy underdogs in a game like this, but …. Baltimore had a knack of hanging tough and even coming out with a win. But victories in a game like this have been few and far between recently. What’s more, Baltimore has trouble just winning on the road, especially against teams with winning records.

This game will be tough and competitive–just as it was in Kansas City a few weeks ago–and the outcome will be the same.

Chargers 24, Ravens 20

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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