After a crazy Week 7, the chaos is far from over.
#5 Michigan @ #23 Michigan State
Spread: Michigan by 6.5
Michigan is the clear #2 team in the B1G after thrashing Wisconsin. This week’s outing against Sparty will be one of two remaining tests (PSU is the other) before its annual season-ending showdown with Ohio State.
MSU had a solid road win last week against Penn State, but this team remains highly unpredictable. The offense is unremarkable and the pass defense is porous (giving up nearly 300 yards a game), placing last in the conference and 118th in the FBS.
Those stats don’t bode well against QB Shea Patterson, who boasts a top-15 completion percentage at 68.6%. To boot, the Wolverines have Karan Higdon, who’s top-10 in rushing yards per game. That tandem will keep the Spartans off-balance.
With a less-than-stellar 78th rank in total offense, that stat says MSU is unlikely to score much against the nation’s top defense. But wait! Sparty has the Wolves’ number, having won 8 of the last 10 games, and I don’t yet trust Michigan to cover the spread. Yes, I expect UM to win. but (and make no mistake about it) this will be a dogfight!
Michigan 24, Michigan State 20
#20 Cincinnati @ Temple
Spread: Temple by 3.5
This week’s pivotal matchup in The American features two top-20 running backs–Michael Warren II for Cincy and Ryquell Armstead for Temple. A glance at the stats tells you that the Bearcats are a lot better at stopping the run than the Owls (24th v. 92nd, respectively, in rush defense). Cincinnati also possesses one of the nation’s premier defensive units, placing 4th in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense.
On the other sideline, Temple’s nightmare start–losing to FCS Villanova–is in its rearview mirror. An improved defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points to a conference foe, which is why the Owls are 3-0 in the league.
But the ‘Cats have been stellar away from home, winning by an average of 24 points. That’s just one reason why victory should go to the better overall team–Cincinnati. I pick the Bearcats to cover the spread easily, win convincingly, and then move on to back-to-back showdowns with league rivals, USF and UCF.
Cincinnati 24, Temple 13
#21 Mississippi State @ #6 LSU
Spread: LSU by 6.5
After a statement win over Georgia, the SEC West’s biggest surprise of the year (I’m talking about LSU) gets to host the MSU Bulldogs, a team that’s coming off a bye.
Both teams take pride in the running game and physical defense. And both teams have performed similarly against common opponents–beating Auburn and suffering one-possession losses to Florida.
While State has done better overall stat-wise, the ‘Dogs have faced an easier schedule. And, this week, they’ll have to play at night in Death Valley, which is a scary proposition. It’s especially formidable for an MSU team that didn’t play well in its sole road test.
The Tigers held a talented UGA rushing attack to 113 yards and I think they’ll repeat that feat against MSU. And with QB Joe Burrow, LSU should put up enough points to outdistance a one-dimensional Miss. State offense. I’ll take LSU to cover.
LSU 21, Mississippi State 13
#10 Oregon @ #19 Washington State
Spread: Washington State by 2
Here’s advice for the Ducks: Forget about last week’s emotional win over hated Washington. You’re now traveling to Pullman to face another Washington team–a team that you don’t match up well against.
WSU has the nation’s BEST passing offense–the only one in the nation that racks up over 400 YPG. And that O will be playing against Oregon’s unimpressive #89th-ranked pass D. And nobody is talking about Gardner Minshew II, the Wazzu senior quarterback. He’s more than capable of producing against the Ducks.
But what separates this Wazzou team from others is its D–ranked 14th nationally in total defense and 10th in passing defense. That means WSU should give Justin Herbert trouble. But, to be fair, let’s also give credit where it’s due. Herbert has played very well against solid competition and Oregon is #18 in total offense (30th in passing, 31st in rushing). That means Wazzou will be tested on the ground and in the air.
All of this accounts for a very low spread. Which team will come out victorious? I like WSU. The home environment at night, plus its formidable passing attack, give the ‘Cougs the edge in my book. If I’m right, then the outcome will throw yet another wrench into the already tumultuous Pac-12 North race.
Washington State 38, Oregon 35
Vanderbilt @ #13 Kentucky
Spread: Kentucky by 11.5
This isn’t the first week I’ve written about UK football. I mean UK FOOTBALL! Who would have thought?
This week the Wildcats get the Commodores (winless in conference play) in a home night game. And there’s a good reason why VU hasn’t won an SEC game: porous defense. Porous is likely to continue this week against a UK offense that’s ranked 4th nationally. On the other side of the ball, the pattern continues: Vanderbilt ranks #82 in offense nationally and the ‘Cats come in ranked 10th in total defense.
All signs point to Benny Snell Jr. and UK having a field day. What I don’t understand is why the spread is only 11.5 points. Perhaps it’s because VU played Florida tight last week. But don’t be fooled. Florida was coming off of a big win over a top-10 team and (in all likelihood) was looking ahead to Georgia.
My take? Kentucky should run away with this one.
Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 13
GAME OF THE WEEK
#17 NC State @ #3 Clemson
Spread: Clemson by 17
There are only two undefeated teams left in the ACC–NC State and Clemson. So consider this week’s game a showdown.
The home-standing Tigers display a strong and balanced offense–ranked 4th nationally in rushing and 8th nationally in total offense. QB Trevor Lawrence has the 12th best completion percentage in the country. What about the defense? It’s even better, placing 3rd nationally in total defense.
NC State will try to counter with its #6th ranked passing offense. It won’t be easy, though. Clemson, which is 6th in passing yards allowed, has a plethora of elite defenders. That means State’s QB Ryan Finley will be challenged.
But after throwing these stats at you–stats that scream “Take Clemson!”–I advise you to step back and consider this: the Tigers have been challenged only twice this year. And only one of those teams (Texas A&M) is legitimate. The other, Syracuse, is not. Yet, CU won those two games by a combined 6 points. SU’s mediocre passing O put up over 250 yards on Clemson. TAMU’s good-but-not-great passing O hung a whopping 430 yards on the Tigers.
But to make this game an even tougher pick, realize that the Wolfpack hasn’t played a treacherous schedule, either. Having the WVU game canceled (hurricane) hurt the ‘Pack’s profile.
Where do I settle? I think NCSU will find a way to cover the points but, ultimately, I pick Clemson to win at home. As for the final margin, I’m far less certain. This one could end up being a back-and-forth affair, a one-possession game, or a blowout.
Clemson 31, NC State 21
