NFL Week 8: Ravens-Panthers Prediction

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Traditionally, the Ravens don’t do well in October road games. That will change this Sunday.


WHAT: Week Eight at Carolina Panthers
WHEN: 1 p.m. (ET); Sunday, October 28
WHERE: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte (75,412)
RECORDS: Ravens, 4-3; Panthers, 4-2
LIFETIME SERIES (regular season): Panthers lead, 3-2; in Charlotte, Panthers lead, 2-1, but Ravens won the last meeting there in 2010
TV: WJZ-TV (Channel 13) (Greg Gumbel, Trent Green, Bruce Arians, booth; Melanie Collins, sidelines)
RADIO: WIYY-FM, 97.9 (Gerry Sandusky, Jarret Johnson, booth; Justin Forsett, sidelines)
REFEREE: Pete Morelli

About the Panthers

The Carolina Panthers were born in 1995 as part of the NFL’s two-team expansion two years earlier. At a Chicago owners’ meeting, Charlotte was granted the league’s 29th franchise, while Jacksonville beat out Baltimore and St. Louis for the 30th entry. The league later added expansion teams in Cleveland (1999) and Houston (2002) to bring the lineup to its current 32 teams.

Carolina began playing at Frank Howard Field at Clemson University’s Memorial Stadium before moving to its current stadium in 1996. In the team’s 23 full seasons (one more than Baltimore), Carolina has won six division titles and two wild-card berths. The eight playoff berths are two less than Baltimore’s total. One of the division titles came in the NFC West in 1996– before the team was realigned into the NFC South in 2002.

–Carolina is 2-2 in NFC title games and 0-2 in Super Bowls. The Panthers lost Super Bowl 38 to New England and Super Bowl 50 to Denver. The team’s all-time record (including postseason) is 196-194-1.

The Panthers are coming off a two-game road swing that has seen them traverse the East Coast, from Washington to Philadelphia, before coming back home. They trail New Orleans in the NFC South by one game. The Panthers’ 21-17 win against the Eagles was Carolina’s largest comeback in team history. Three fourth-quarter touchdowns wiped out a 17-0 deficit. After a 1-1 start, Carolina has won three of its last four games.

Carolina has a talent-laden roster. A league-high 15 players have been invited to at least one Pro Bowl.

Carolina typically gets off to slow starts in each half. The Panthers have scored just 17 first-quarter points and ten in the third. But the team has outpointed its foes in the fourth, 65-36.

–The Panthers have the longest current streak of games played without going to overtime. The number sits at 46.

The Panthers currently possesses a respectable plus-3 turnover ratio. They have recovered only three fumbles, but they’ve also picked off seven passes (Donte Jackson has three, tied for the league high) and have fumbled the ball away three times on offense. However, rookie wideout DJ Moore–one of three Maryland products on the roster–has lost two of those fumbles.

-Through six games, Carolina is ranked 18th in total offense (fourth rushing at 136 yards per game, 22nd passing, 18th scoring) and 13th in total defense (ninth vs. rush, 17th vs. pass, tied for fifth scoring). The Panthers aren’t very good as far as third-down offense is concerned (ranking 16th), but they have allowed ten sacks on offense and have the league’s fourth-best third-down defense. But when opponents get inside their 20-yard line, the Panthers have yielded touchdowns at a rate that’s the league’s fourth-worst.

The Panthers have committed 36 accepted penalties, the league’s fourth-fewest, and the team’s 301 penalty yards is also the NFL’s fourth-lowest amount. The team’s penalty total is 12 less than Baltimore’s. No individual player has been charged with more than three penalties, but Carolina has been flagged for nine false start penalties and for five defensive holding calls.

-Head coach Ron Rivera, the Panthers’ fourth head coach in team history, is in his eighth season at the helm. He has a regular-season record of 68-49-1 with a 3-4 postseason mark. Rivera needs six more regular-season wins to set the Panthers’ all-time franchise record (surpassing John Fox). Rivera has won three NFC South titles and is tied for the NFC lead with four playoff appearances over the past five years. In 2006, Rivera was the defensive coordinator for a Chicago team that registered 44 sacks and put that team into Super Bowl 41. As a player, Rivera was a linebacker on the legendary Bears team that won Super Bowl 20.

–Rivera’s coaching staff includes run-game coordinator John Matsko (part of the Navy staff in 1985 before becoming the Ravens’ offensive line coach, 2008-10). The running backs coach is former Baltimore Stars (USFL) assistant Jim Skipper. Former University of Michigan head coach Brady Hoke is the Panthers’ defensive line coach and longtime NFL head and assistant coach, Norv Turner, is the offensive coordinator.

–Quarterback Cam Newton is in his eighth year in the league and has a gained reputation for being a clutch quarterback. This season, his 689 fourth-quarter passing yards and six fourth-quarter touchdown passes are second-most in the league. He can also make plays with his legs. His 57 rushing touchdowns are the most by a quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. This year, he has gained 257 rushing yards on 52 carries while completing 65.6 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 94.7 passer rating. Newton’s rushing total is the team’s second-highest.

–Second-year back Christian McCaffrey, a top-ten overall pick, leads the team in both rushing (378 yards, 4.8 yards per carry) and receiving (40 catches, 7.2 yards per reception, one touchdown). McCaffrey is one of only three backs in the NFL with 40 receptions and 350 or more rushing yards. The others are Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara. Sixth-year running back CJ Anderson has rushed only 16 times, but he’s averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

-Eight different pass-catchers have scored the Panthers’ 11 receiving touchdowns. Devin Funchess–the leader with three–also has 29 catches, which is the team’s second-most. He’s averaging almost 13 yards per reception. Chipping in with two touchdowns is former Ravens wideout Torrey Smith, who has 16 total catches. Smith has played one game against Baltimore (with San Francisco in 2015), scoring a touchdown and gaining 96 yards. Jairus White and CJ Moore have 15 and 13 catches, respectively, while tight end (and Baltimore native) Ian Thomas has ten. Veteran tight end Greg Olsen has recently returned from injury.

–The offensive line has done a rather good job protecting Newton and opening holes for a potent ground game. Thanks to injuries, only left guard Greg Van Roten and center Ryan Kalil have started every game. In fact, they are two of only four Panthers offensive starters who can make that claim. Chris Clark is a left tackle in his ninth year and Trai Turner is a seasoned veteran in only his fifth season at right guard. Right tackle Taylor Moton is the youngster of the group (in only in his second season). Ex-Buffalo tackle Marshall Newhouse is the swing tackle.

–With 19 tackles and a team-high 4.5 sacks, defensive end Mario Addison is the team’s main edge pass-rushing threat. He’s partnered on the other side with 17-year veteran Julius Peppers, who has only 11 stops. Defensive tackle Kawann Short leads the front four with 21 tackles and has two sacks. He’s in his sixth year, while up-the-middle partner, Dontari Poe, is in his seventh. Backup tackle Kyle Love has a team-high seven quarterback pressures.

–The linebacking corps contains the best in youth and experience. On the outside, Shaq Thompson (40 tackles, two sacks) is in his fourth year and Thomas Davis is playing in his 14th season. Perennial Pro Bowl pick Luke Kuechly (team-high 65 tackles, two sacks) is the man in the middle. He’s just entering his prime in his seventh year. Kuechly had a career-high 14 tackles and four stops for loss last week. Backup linebacker Ben Jacobs has a team-high four special teams tackles.

–In all, five of the NFL’s top six active tacklers will be on the field in this game. They are Davis, Kuechly, Terrell Suggs, Eric Weddle, and Mike Adams.

–Panthers cornerback James Bradberry leads the team in pass breakups with ten. His 28 tackles are the fifth-most on the team. Rookie corner Donte Jackson already has three interceptions, tied for the league high; and his 33 tackles are the Panthers’ fourth-most. There is veteran talent in the deep middle in the person of Adams (36 tackles, third on the team, two interceptions) and former San Francisco 49ers castoff, Eric Reid, who has 17 solo tackles among his 18 stops.

–For a second straight week, the Ravens will be facing one of their former training-camp kickers, Graham Gano. Gano is 8-for-8 on field goals this year, including a game-winning 63-yard bomb against the New York Giants (tied for the second-longest kick in team history). But he has attempted only eight field goals this season with only one in the past two weeks. He has also missed two extra points. Opponents, on the other hand, have missed three field goals against Carolina, including a key 36-yarder at Philadelphia last week.

–Michael Palardy, a third-year punter from Tennessee, has placed 13 of his 25 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Palardy is grossing 45.5 yards per punt and netting 40.6 yards per attempt. He has only three touchbacks. Palardy has been helped by punt coverage that is allowing just over six yards per return with no runback longer than 15 yards. Weak kick coverage is yielding 25 yards per runback.

–DJ Moore and third-year player Damiere Byrd have split the team’s 11 punt returns, averaging 7.7 yards per runback between them. Moore has also taken a role on the kick-return team–running back two of them for a 22-yard average–and that matches the rate of Curtis Samuel, who has four runbacks.

Prediction

The Ravens have proven that they can play with any team in the league, home or away. But the line between success and failure in the NFL is very small, such that a wayward conversion kick cost Baltimore a chance to record a huge win over the Saints.

Carolina, on the other hand, didn’t show its toughness until last week when it staged a 21-point rally at Philadelphia. But the Eagles are having a Super Bowl hangover and the Ravens are hungry for a third title. Despite the Ravens’ traditional October road woes, they are more than deep than the Panthers and talented enough to get the job done.

Ravens 26, Panthers 17

About Joe Platania

Veteran Ravens correspondent Joe Platania is in his 45th year in sports media (including two CFL seasons when Batlimore had a CFL team) in a career that extends across parts of six decades. Platania covers sports with insight, humor, and a highly prescient eye, and that is why he has made his mark on television, radio, print, online, and in the podcast world. He can be heard frequently on WJZ-FM’s “Vinny And Haynie” show, alongside ex-Washington general manager Vinny Cerrato and Bob Haynie. A former longtime member in good standing of the National Sportscasters and Sportswriters Association and the Pro Football Writers of America, Platania manned the CFL Stallions beat for The Avenue Newspaper Group of Essex (1994 and ’95) and the Ravens beat since the team’s inception — one of only three local writers to do so — for PressBox, The Avenue, and other local publications and radio stations. A sought-after contributor and host on talk radio and TV, he made numerous appearances on “Inside PressBox” (10:30 a.m. Sundays), and he was heard weekly for eight seasons on the “Purple Pride Report,” WQLL-AM (1370). He has also appeared on WMAR-TV’s “Good Morning Maryland” (2009), Comcast SportsNet’s “Washington Post Live” (2004-06), and WJZ-TV’s “Football Talk” postgame show — with legend Marty Bass (2002-04). Platania is the only sports journalist in Maryland history to have been a finalist for both the annual Sportscaster of the Year award (1998, which he won) and Sportswriter of the Year (2010). He is also a four-time Maryland-Delaware-District of Columbia Press Association award winner. Platania is a graduate of St. Joseph’s (Cockeysville), Calvert Hall College High School, and Towson University, where he earned a degree in Mass Communications. He lives in Cockeysville, MD.



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