My NFL forecast and analysis in a week that could have many close games.
Week after week, this sport can thrill, confound, and make you question those who play and coach. Despite an 11-4 record last week, two of my losses were in overtime – one on a questionable go-for-it call by Indianapolis and another with six seconds left as Cincinnati knocked off Atlanta.
But we’re still 35-26-2 (.562) as Week Five beckons. Chicago and Tampa Bay have the byes.
(All games on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
New England 40, Indianapolis 10 (Thursday night): To paraphrase Rick Pitino, “Folks, Peyton Manning isn’t walking through that door.” Well, Tom Brady is … and he’s playing at home. Road teams on Thursday’s usually don’t fare well and the Colts are coming off a head-scratching divisional loss to Houston at home. This game is the easiest picks on the board.
Baltimore 29, Cleveland 13: Football is a bottom-line business, which is why the Browns still don’t impress me. They’re 1-2-1 and I see losses piling up. Why? They tied with a poor Steelers defense, beat the sorry Jets, and then lost to the winless Raiders. Now they go home and step (way) up in class against Baltimore. The same old Browns will reappear because they aren’t good enough to come back from all the heartbreak.
Pittsburgh 30, Atlanta 27: Even before a spate of injuries, the Falcons’ defense had surprisingly underperformed. But the Steelers, while not invincible at home, certainly seem more comfortable there and should win yet another point-fest. But (there’s a BIG but here): if Pittsburgh loses, full-scale panic could set in.
Cincinnati 31, Miami 16: When these teams met in Miami a few years ago, the game was decided by an OT safety–one three games in NFL history to be decided that way. This one won’t be that close. The Bengals have proven they can stay with anyone and Miami’s blowout loss last week at NE was all too predictable.
Tennessee 23, Buffalo 3: These two teams met in what’s called the “Music City Miracle,” a 1999 playoff win for the Titans. This time they meet in Buffalo and no miracle will be required. The Titans, fresh off a home comeback win over Philadelphia, won’t need much of anything to beat the lifeless Bills.
Carolina 20, New York Giants 12: The Panthers are home, coming off a bye, and are equipped defensively to deal with Eli, Odell, and Saquon. The Giants are finding that it’s taking longer than expected to find the road back to respectability.
Green Bay 27, Detroit 17: The Lion’s marquee win over New England seems so long ago. And Detroit could be heading for their bye week with tails between legs after letting a possible win at Dallas slip away and a likely home lost to GB. The line on this one: Detroit is one of the league’s most up-and-down teams and the Pack is rounding into form.
Kansas City 34, Jacksonville 27: This could be the best game on the card. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been all that great, but (in truth) it hasn’t had to be. Blake Bortles has the tools to beat the KC defense–especially if Pat Mahomes has trouble dealing with the Jaguars’ expert secondary play. In games like this–with six of one and a half dozen of the other–I typically take the home team.
Denver 23, New York Jets 6: While not so good on the road, it’s also clear that Denver has morphed into more of a real team–much more than has the struggling Jets. Sam Darnold, who has flamed out after a hot start, still shows promise. Having said that, he’s not at Case Keenum’s level … at least not yet.
Los Angeles Chargers 33, Oakland 20: The Chargers are off to a slower start than I expected, even at home in their cozy soccer stadium. And now they host their old division rival, Oakland. But I think that the Raiders’ lack of a pass rush should cost them dearly against the explosive Philip Rivers.
Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 23: In last year’s NFC title game, the Vikings went into Philadelphia, scored first, but then folded up shop. But this is a different year and a different Eagles’ team. Philly is stumbling. And if this team doesn’t wake up soon, it won’t be playing in January.
San Francisco 19, Arizona 13: It’s kind of difficult to pick a QB with CJ Beathard going up against Josh Rosen. That said, I think the 49ers are better equipped to deal with the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo than are the Cardinals in their quest to replace Sam Bradford. San Francisco is at home, too. 1+1 = ‘Niners.
Los Angeles Rams 30, Seattle 17: Two weeks ago I had thought that Seattle’s home magic would get stomped on by the feet of Ezekiel Elliott, but the Seahawks’ defense and offensive line rose to the occasion and won. But that outcome is unlikely this week because the Rams have a myriad of weapons. The Rams–my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl–look like the NFL’s best team.
Dallas 27, Houston 20 (Sunday night): The Texans’ first home game in history was against the Cowboys and they managed to get a win. That was then. Dallas has been more competitive and consistent this year, despite a mediocre 2-2 record. Houston was gifted its first win last week and the Cowboys’ no-frills offense isn’t likely to do the same this week.
New Orleans 31, Washington 13 (Monday night): The Redskins come back from their bye and head to a venue where they inexplicably lost a winnable game last year. Despite experiencing a few hiccups, New Orleans is clearly the better team. The Saints should take care of business before resting up (bye week) and preparing for a trip to Baltimore.
