Mike Evans: Big Potential or Big Bust?

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Courtesy: Zimbio

Courtesy: Zimbio

Mike Evans is among the top Wide Receivers going into the 2014 NFL draft, and why shouldn’t he be? He’s massive; he’s strong; he bullies cornerbacks; he doesn’t drop passes.. His 6’5, 225 pound frame makes him a lethal weapon in the red zone. Good hands, size, and strength are typically the recipe for first round receivers. NFL scouts and coaches will certainly give this receiver a first round grade. He has the things that can’t be taught; he’s raw, but coaches can teach a guy how to run a route, right?

His scouting report on CBS Sports credits him as being a “highly physical receiver who uses his size and strength to simply bully defenders.” They go on to praise his “sticky hands” and his “excellent body control,” while also mentioning how he often he pushes off to gain separation. He lacks burst off the line of scrimmage and going into breaks; his top end speed is questionable. He struggles to consistently separate from defenders in the open field. Evans’ game is reliant on his size and strength, essentially, making him an undersized tight end.

Let’s look at a current NFL player with a similar build and skill set. We’re looking for a guy with a massive frame, a physical playing style, and a strong catch ability. Does Jon Baldwin ring any bells? Just a few years ago, he was a first round pick, selected by the Kansas City Chiefs. Now with the San Francisco 49ers, the receiver has just 44 catches for a little over 600 yards and two touchdowns in three seasons.

Why has Baldwin struggled? In Walter Football’s scouting report of him prior to the 2011 NFL Draft, they criticize his route running, lack of burst, and lack of top end speed. He has the size, the strength, and the hands, but he lacks the burst that an NFL wide receiver needs. While many compare Evans to Vincent Jackson, he compares more to Jon Baldwin, a big body without enough speed.

Courtesy: Zimbio

Courtesy: Zimbio

Now, Mike Evans is following a similar path. At Texas A&M, his route tree was limited to go routes, comebacks, and the occasional slant. He lumbered down the field, and Johnny Football would chuck it up to him. Evans would push off the Cornerback and make the catch; That’s Evans in a nutshell. He will likely go in the first round, because scouts and coaches love a receiver with a big body.

Some analysts like Daniel Jeremiah have mocked him into the top ten or just outside. There are high expectations surrounding Evans, but size and strength are not enough to beat NFL defenders. He will have to evolve if he wants to live up to his first round grade.

The NFL Scouting Combine comes in just a few days, and Evans needs to come prepared. There’s only so much a scout can learn from watching a football player in tights and underwear. Combine performances are no indication of future NFL success, especially looking at a guy like Darrius Heyward-Bey. After running a 4.25 40 yard dash in his combine, he’s had a very average career. Why? Because that speed is all he has.

However, Evans needs the combine; he is the complete opposite of Heyward-Bey entering the draft. He has size, hands, and physicality; he needs to show off his speed. The 40 yard dash is a poor method of judging talent, but talent is not the issue with Evans. He has talent, but he lacks athleticism; the faster he runs the higher his stock will rise (he needs to perform well in the shuttle drills and the 3-cone drills). He needs to prove that he isn’t just a big set of hands.

If Evans wishes to remain the elite in the upcoming draft, he needs to dominate the combine and elevate his stats.  But even that does not ensure him of NFL glory.

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