Each week I pick the winners of all the NFL games (or try to, anyway) without point spreads and without bias, either. Here are my picks for Week 12.
With Thanksgiving and my birthday (and plenty of food) on the horizon, my belly got too full of wins. I slumped to 8-6 last week, bringing my season-to-date total to 98-62 (.613). The bye weeks are now over and the stretch run begins. It’s a time when teams and pundits (hopefully) will be at their best.
(NOTE: All games are on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
Thanksgiving Day Games
BONUS PICK FOR BALTIMORE AREA FOOTBALL FANS: Calvert Hall 30, Loyola 13 (Thanksgiving morning): This Baltimore private high school archrivalry doesn’t count towards my NFL total, but it’s the 98th meeting of one of the nation’s longest prep series. Loyola has a nine-win overall lead (49-40-8), but Calvert Hall (full disclosure, the school that somehow allowed me to graduate in 1981) has won seven of the last eight meetings.
Minnesota 33, Detroit 23 (Thanksgiving afternoon): The Lions have a four-game Thanksgiving winning streak in a series they’ve played traditionally on Turkey Day since the early 1930s. But despite the firepower of quarterback Matthew Stafford, Detroit’s defense isn’t as good as Minnesota’s.
Dallas 24, Los Angeles Chargers 23 (Thanksgiving afternoon): The Cowboys hung with Philadelphia for a half last week before succumbing to a 30-point second-half blitz. The Chargers aren’t nearly as good as the Eagles and they haven’t played on Turkey Day since 1969, which is the longest holiday absence in the league. The big news, though, is that Dallas needs LT Tyron Smith to return soon … or its season could be over.
New York Giants 27, Washington 20 (Thanksgiving night): Washington has been 4-6 or 3-7 at this point in the season during seven of the last nine years. It’s 4-6 now. The Giants haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game all year. But the way the Redskins’ defense is playing, that barrier is not only reachable for New York, it’s possible.
Rest of the Schedule
Cincinnati 23, Cleveland 10: The Bengals went on the road and got what could be a huge win at Denver. They are brimming with confidence heading into the “Battle of Ohio.” Unfortunately, the winless Browns don’t luster to this game … or make it much of a battle either.
New England 37, Miami 16: The Patriots’ defense, which was a sieve earlier this season, has righted itself. QB Tom Brady is hitting on all cylinders, too, having thrown just two interceptions all year. The Dolphins checked out on the season long ago.
Tennessee 24, Indianapolis 15: The Titans–a maddeningly inconsistent team–are still good enough to be at or near the top of the AFC South. The Colts are getting good play from quarterback Jacoby Brissett, but they are prone to making key mistakes at the wrong time.
Atlanta 29, Tampa Bay 22: Atlanta comes back home after a short week and a long, successful trip to Seattle. NFC South games are usually tough and high-scoring but, if the Falcons want to show last year wasn’t a fluke, now is the time to do it against an underachieving Buccaneers team.
Philadelphia 42, Chicago 17: Chicago has shown a tendency to put a fright in some of the league’s middle-tier teams–despite the fact that it’s less than mediocre itself. This week it’s simple, though: they’re not in the Eagles’ league.
Kansas City 31, Buffalo 18: Even with its recent slump, which included a loss to the woeful New York Giants, the Chiefs should be able to return home and right the ship. With a foolhardy QB change, Buffalo seems to be cutting off its nose to spite its face.
Carolina 23, New York Jets 6: The Panthers are finally playing in concert–getting good play from QB Cam Newton and the defense at the same time. The Jets should be applauded for hanging in there as long as they have, but I see a season-ending slump starting. That slump will accelerate over the final month.
Oakland 26, Denver 17: While both teams have struggled, at least Oakland will be at home and knows what it’s doing at quarterback. The Broncos face a dilemma: Do they turn to Paxton Lynch now or later?
Seattle 20, San Francisco 10: The 49ers have home field advantage, but both teams are banged up, particularly the Seahawks’ and its renowned defense. But the ‘Hawks are the better overall team … and safety Earl Thomas has finally gotten healthy.
Jacksonville 27, Arizona 13: Jacksonville has to travel a long way to play this game, but the Jags will bring a much more aggressive defense, a better quarterback (yes, I’ll take Blake Bortles over Blaine Gabbert), and a lot more to play for as the season winds down.
New Orleans 36, Los Angeles Rams 33: This is the week’s best game, to be sure. The Saints have won eight in a row behind their usually-explosive offense. And it’s defense is much better than it has been in recent years. The Rams will be at home, but I doubt even Jared Goff and Todd Gurley will be able to stay with NO point for point.
Pittsburgh 27, Green Bay 10 (Sunday night): The folks at NBC were salivating when the schedule was released, anticipating a marquee-quarterback battle between Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. With Rogers out and the Steelers at home, there’s no drama now.
Baltimore 19, Houston 13 (Monday night): The Texans have shown they can put up points — even without QB DeShaun Watson. But it’s tough to do that against Baltimore, which is one of the league’s best home teams. The Ravens feature a mostly-healthy, aggressive defense, which loves playing under the lights.
