Oh, Tampa! The Bucs are winless (0-4), while the Cowboys (2-2) snuck past the Texans last Sunday, rebounding from the “we won until we didn’t” game against the Ravens in Rio.
The skinny on the ‘Boys includes positives and negatives. CeeDee Lamb has been on a tear, averaging over 100 yards in three games this season, and the team’s running game (Javonte Williams) is waking up, with Williams finding the end zone three times vs. the Texans.
The defense is doing a better job of containing the run. That said, the defense gave up two long pass plays, largely because CJ Stroud had time to stand in the pocket and throw downfield.
The Bucs need Baker back (photo, Sports Illustrated)
While it’s six of one, a dozen of the other for Dallas, the Floridians need across-the-board improvement to get over the hump in what has been a “close but not cigar” season. All four losses have been close, by seven, six, four, seven, and three points. Compounding things, Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb (Week 3 vs. the Vikings), but at least the prognosis is good: an MRI showed no fractures or ligament damage.
That’s promising, but we won’t know how much it affects him until he returns to the field.
Jalon Daniels Photo courtesy JoeBucsFan
Until then, Todd Bowles will give the ball to Jalon Daniels, the Buccaneers’ backup quarterback (a rookie from Kansas). Against the Packers last Sunday, Daniels went 19 for 27, with 148 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, for a passer rating of 65.0. The Buccaneers led in most team stats, including rushing yards (141), first downs (19), third-down conversions (5/12), and red-zone conversions/attempts (2/2). But Green Bay’s perfect fourth-down conversion rate (3-for-3) proved the difference.
Even though all of Tampa Bay’s games have gone down to the wire, the Bucs’ overall stats picture shows they must improve. Total yards per game rank 28th in the league, passing yards 27th, and points per game 23rd.
On the flip side, the Cowboys know they will have to defend the Bucs’ rushing game (106 yards per game), which is key to winning. That’s because, until Mayfield returns, Tampa Bay will favor the run. That means the Cowboys’ front seven must contain RB Bucky Irving (241 yards on the season) and keep Daniels from hurting them on the ground (7.1 rushing yards per carry).
The Cowboys also need Javonte Williams to get going early and set the tone. That will make it easier for Dak to settle in and get the offense firing on all cylinders. Dallas can’t afford to start slowly and give hope to a team playing with a rookie backup quarterback.
I’ve got the Cowboys (-8.5 as of Thursday morning) winning 28-14. Bucs at Cowboys, 8:15 Eastern kickoff, on PRIME.
