Here are two fixes to save football’s unpredictability.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup ended with Spain hoisting the trophy at MetLife Stadium. For the casual viewer, this was the pinnacle of football excellence. But for those of us who fell in love with the game the day we were old enough to hold a football, this was another run in the park — the same story with a different, predictable ending. “I wonder who’s going to win. Elite superpower #1 or elite superpower #2?”
The sport that once exuded romance, chaos, and raw human drama is now a bureaucratic spectacle of number-crunching, and this tournament exposed the filth beneath. Football is being systematically suffocated by corporate greed through intentional predictability and a lopsided financial system.
We are stuck in a real-life Groundhog Day, a time loop where the podium sees the same boots, the same colors, the same names. The winners are always predictable. While the rich superpowers — Spain, Argentina, France, and the like — cruise through, the rest of the world watches from the window. There are no Cinderella stories in football. Not because they aren’t possible, but because the powers that be hate happily-ever-after endings.
We can rebuild the game better, stronger, faster than it ever was. To give the true underdogs a fighting chance and make international tournaments more lucrative for everyone, FIFA must adopt two drastic reforms.
Kill the Anonymous VAR Over-Scrutiny: Give Managers the Power
VAR is the consummate example of the adage “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.” It was supposed to make football fair and balanced. Instead, it created a hyper-vigilant, over-analyzed environment and became a symbol of favoritism. The system naturally favors the big teams: when a superstar falls in the box, or a giant nation commits a borderline foul, pressure from the global media and the powers that be often pushes referees toward the bigger badge.
This micro-analyzing of millimeters, in a game where it is impossible to quantify every variable, is crazy, and it must stop. Case in point. During Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, in the 113th minute, Croatia’s last-second equalizer through Josko Gvardiol was disallowed by VAR after sensors built into the match ball detected a microscopic, invisible-to-the-eye touch off Igor Matanović’s head in the buildup. That triggered an offside call. Croatia lost that match, not because of a lack of skill, but because of a system so obsessed with precision it forgot what it was supposed to protect.
I’m Albanian — I have no dog in this fight. VAR didn’t just take a goal from Croatia; it robbed the fans of the glory and the drama that is the entire reason we watch football.
The fix is already working seamlessly in the NFL: a manager-led challenge system. Offsides and goal-line calls on visible, black-and-white facts would still run automatically — they shouldn’t be removed.
But for subjective, game-altering decisions — penalties, red cards, fouls — VAR officials would be stripped of their power to intervene constantly. Instead, give each manager three tactical challenges per match. Lose the challenge, and you lose it. Win it, and you keep it.
This puts the strategy back where it belongs: on the pitch. Superstar players would think twice about faking a fall in the box unless a manager is willing to risk a challenge on it. That reintroduces the human drama that made football fun, and the natural flow of the game returns when teams take strategic risks.
Implement a Pay-Per-Match 50/50 Advertisement Split
The second biggest issue is the wealth gap. FIFA’s prize-money structure exponentially rewards top finishers. This year, Spain took home a $50 million check for winning, while teams eliminated in the group stage received a fraction of that. This permanently ensures elite teams keep building cutting-edge academies and sports-science facilities, while smaller nations struggle to cover basic travel and training costs.
The counterargument is that prize money doesn’t move the needle much for elite programs, since they’re elite because of infrastructure built over decades, not a single tournament check.
That’s precisely the point: $50 million may not go far for a wealthy federation, but it would go to the moon and back for a struggling one — straight into pitches and facilities, keeping youth involved and off the streets.
FIFA should look at American sports economics: pool all global broadcast, marketing, and stadium advertisement revenue together, and split it 50/50, evenly, per match played. Under this model, every match an underdog survives becomes more lucrative, so it behooves every team to fight harder. If a smaller nation fights like hell and still gets knocked out, that payout can be life-changing for the country’s football future.
This brings balance — economic equity without ruining competitive drive. It doesn’t hand out free trophies; it rewards survival. The ultimate trophy is the ability to get up and fight another day.
The Win-Win: Embracing the “March Madness” Effect
FIFA executives may argue that redistributing wealth hurts their bottom line. They would be entirely wrong. They’re focused on an old, safe model of corporate revenue instead of the money that chaos and unpredictability can bring. Look at March Madness here in the U.S. — a multibillion-dollar spectacle built entirely on the appeal of tiny, unknown schools knocking out elite universities.
Imagine a World Cup where an underdog team fighting for millions of dollars in grassroots money, every single game, could draw the kind of audience we’ve never seen before. Sports betting would explode with high-stakes underdog storylines, and television networks would set records running those stories. Every group-stage match would carry the intensity of a final.
FIFA has already expanded the tournament to 48 teams, but more games do not mean better football if the size of a bank account predetermines the outcome. It’s time to step back and look at what makes sport beautiful — and to introduce the structural changes that bring the soul football lost back to the world stage.
