Four out of five picks were selected correctly, with the one miss a single point off for a wash and two points off for a 100% win slate.
On March 2 (Part 1), I picked the five Lower Mid-Major teams I believed had the best chance of winning their conference tournaments and advancing in March Madness. They were Belmont, McNeese, Yale, High Point, and UNCW (2 of 5, 40% correct). My next four picks were Winthrop (same conference as High Point, the Big South), Hawaii, Howard, and Tennessee State (3 of 4, 75% correct). That’s five correct picks out of nine overall picks (56%).
Of those initial picks, the biggest disappointments (hugely surprising is a better description) were Belmont’s early exit and Penn clipping Yale to win the Ivy League tournament.
BELMONT: 25-6 Belmont (MVC), my #1 pick going into conference tournament week, also had the highest pre-conference tournament NET ranking (#55) among my lower mid-major picks. Belmont didn’t just lose; it was blown out (100-79) by a Drake team it had beaten twice earlier in the season. It was a shocking exit because the Bulldogs, previously a high-flying mid-major, were an also-ran in 2025-26. True to form, Drake was blown out in the next round by UIC (72-51) and ended the season 14-20.
POST-CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT STATUS: Belmont was offered, and declined, an NIT bid.
YALE: Yale was the odds-on favorite to win the Ivy, having won both season encounters against its tournament foe Penn. The sad thing is Eli had the championship game won until it didn’t. As often happens (coach’s choice), rather than foul a player with a 3-point lead and only a few seconds left, Yale let TJ Power take the inbound pass unobstructed. He dribbled down the court unguarded and took a 3-pointer to the right of the key. Swish! Power tied the game, and Penn won in OT. For his part (and a huge part is was), Power had 44 points on the day, half of the Quakers’ 88 points.
POST-CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT STATUS: Teams don’t recover quickly from what happened vs. Penn. Yale received and accepted a NIT bid and played at home in the first round against UNC Wilmington (+4.5) before an announced crowd of 542. Eli led by six at halftime, but UNCW rallied in the second half to take a 68-67 lead on Christian May’s trey (16 points on the night) with 34 seconds remaining. Then Yale’s Ivy Player of the Year, Nick Townsend (11 points on the night), a 75% free thrower on the season, missed two free throws with 12 seconds left, and that was that.
Even though they weren’t my final picks, I wrote that five conference champions were worth watching. Penn with Power; Siena (surprise winner of the MAAC, Gavin Doty is a terrific player); Northern Iowa (surprise winner of the MVC); Maryland, Baltimore County (America East, beating Vermont in the championship game); and California Baptist (WAC, upending a sold Utah Valley squad to win the crown).
How did those five teams do? Penn was +24.5 vs. Illinois, and I didn’t see the Illini covering. Illinois won by 35, 105-70, mainly by muzzling Power (6 points on 2-8 shooting). Siena (+25.5) had a nine-point halftime lead vs. Duke in the first round before succumbing 71-65. Doty had 21 points on the night. Northern Iowa (+10.5) vs. St. John’s, lost to the Johnnies by 26, 79-53. Maryland, Baltimore County (+1.5), lost to my first-round choice, Howard, by three, 86-83. California Baptist (+14-5) lost to Kansas by eight, 68-60. Overall, 2 of 5 (40%).
With Belmont vanquished, McNeese (Southland, 26-5) had the highest NET (#56) among my five remaining lower mid-major picks, followed by #75 High Point (Big South, 27-4) and #101 Hawaii (Big West, 22-8). Two HBCUs follow: Howard (MEAC, 19-10) is at #203, and Tennessee State (Ohio Valley, 20-9) came in at #308. [/beautifulquote]FIRST FOUR: No. 16 UMBC (-2.5) vs. No. 16 Howard Tuesday, 6:40 pm, truTV: This is the best UMBC team since the historic 2018 upset of Virginia (a #16-seed beating a #1-seed). That said, this may be the best Howard team in history–at least by number of wins (23). The Bison will go as far as senior guard Bryce Harris takes them (17 PPG/7 RPG). It’s literally a pick ’em game, a game that’s also for local bragging rights (two schools are less than 35 miles apart). My head says UMBC, but my heart says Howard. Heart wins the nod … Howard to win outright, but I know this one will likely go either way.
HOWARD WON OUTRIGHT, 86-83
SOUTH REGION: No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5) vs. No. 12 McNeese Thursday, 3:15 pm, truTV: No question, Vandy is on an upswing athletically in the always tough SEC, both in football and basketball. Ok. We know that. But most fans don’t know this: McNeese’s freshman guard, Larry Johnson, is a player to watch. He leads the Cowboys in scoring (18 PPG) and rebounding (6 RPG), and is a 50% shooter. I’ll take McNeese to keep Vandy from covering, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cowboys eke out a win.
Vanderbilt did not cover vs. McNeese, 78-68
WEST REGION:
No. 5 Wisconsin (-11.5) vs. No. 12 High Point Thursday, 1:50 pm, TBS: Wisconsin always seems to be full of surprises, like beating Michigan in Ann Arbor and slamming Michigan State at home. I thought UW had beaten UM again in the tournament semi-final, but a last-second shot by Yaxel Lendeborg proved otherwise. Now, the Badgers go up against an HPU team that has become (for good reasons) one of this week’s trendy picks. Terry Anderson is very much like McNeese’s Larry Johnson — a combo guard who can score (16 PPG) and rebound (6 RPG), and he makes nearly 60% of his shots. If there is a lower mid-major destined to advance this week, I think the Panthers have to be on that list. I’ll take HPU to keep the Badgers from covering, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers eke out a win.
High Point won outright, 83-82
No. 4 Arkansas (-15.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii Thursday, 4:25 pm, TBS: I’m not an Arkansas fan (Lordy, no), and John Calipari has too much dirt under his fingernails historically for my taste (e.g., UMass and Memphis). That said, I don’t think the Rainbow Warriors can keep pace with an SEC team. Darius Acuff should have a field day. The freshman from Detroit is one of the best players in the country, freshman or otherwise, averaging 23 PPG and 7 APG. (How did Acuff get away from May and Izzo? I don’t want to know.) I see the Razorbacks winning by more than 20.
“Arkansas to win by more than 20” … Arkansas won by 19, 97-78
MIDWEST REGION: No. 2 Iowa State (-23.5) vs. No. 15 Tennessee State Friday, 2:50 pm, CBS: Heart loves TSU and its Duke-bred head coach Nolan Smith, but ISU is simply too deep and strong for the Tigers to handle. Plus, I’m an ISU alum. Heck, if not for Arizona sinking a “you can’t possibly make this shot” buzzer-beater, I think the Cyclones would have beaten the Wildcats in the Big 12 tournament. But the big news coming out of Kansas City was that the f—ing stupid tournament floor. (Of all the problems facing college sports, the Big 12 Commissioner decided to focus on installing an LED floor for the conference tournament, and then had to replace it mid-tournament because players were slipping and sliding. Geeez!)Back to this game…. Maybe, just maybe, if the gods are smiling, TSU may lose by fewer than 24 points. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
“Wouldn’t bet TSU losing by fewer than 24” … Iowa State won by 34, 108-74
Four out of my five picks were right (80%), with the lone miss a single point off for a wash and two points off for a 100% win slate.
That’s it for ’25-26.
