Conference tournament upsets (Belmont and Yale) compromised what could have been a solid March Madness picking season. (Reminder: I focus only on what I define as “Lower Mid-Major” teams.)
On March 2 (Part 1), I picked the five Lower Mid-Major teams I believed had the best chance of winning their conference tournaments and advancing in March Madness. They were Belmont, McNeese, Yale, High Point, and UNCW (2 of 5, 40% correct). My next four picks were Winthrop (same conference as High Point, the Big South), Hawaii, Howard, and Tennessee State (3 of 4, 75% correct). That’s five correct picks out of nine overall picks (56%). [/beautifulquote]
The big disappointments (hugely surprising is a better description) are Belmont’s early exit and Penn clipping Yale to win the Ivy League tournament.
BELMONT: 25-6 Belmont (MVC), my #1 pick going into conference tournament week, also had the highest pre-conference tournament NET ranking (#55) among my lower mid-major picks. Belmont didn’t just lose; it was blown out (100-79) by a Drake team it had beaten twice earlier in the season. It was a shocking exit because the Bulldogs, previously a high-flying mid-major, were an also-ran in 2025-26. True to form, Drake was blown out in the next round by UIC (72-51) and ended the season 14-20.
YALE: Yale was the odds-on favorite to win the Ivy, having won both season encounters against its tournament foe Penn. The sad thing is Eli had the championship game won until it didn’t. As often happens (coach’s choice), rather than foul a player with a 3-point lead and only a few seconds left, Yale let TJ Power take the inbound pass unobstructed. He dribbled down the court and took a 3-pointer to the right of the key. Swish! Power tied the game, and Penn won in OT. For his part (a huge part, that is), Power had 44 points on the day, half of the Quakers’ 88 points. He’s a player to watch this week, and so is 14-seed Penn (+24.5) vs. Illinois on Thursday at 9:25 pm on TNT. (I don’t see the Illini covering.)
Other teams to watch this week (not among my picks) include Siena (surprise winner of the MAAC, Gavin Doty is a terrific player), Northern Iowa (surprise winner of the MVC), Maryland, Baltimore County (America East, beating Vermont in the championship game), and California Baptist (WAC, upending a sold Utah Valley squad to win the crown).
Now, for my picks that survived the weekend by winning their respective conference tournaments…. With Belmont vanquished, McNeese (Southland, 26-5) is now the team with the highest NET (#56) of my five remaining lower mid-major picks, followed by #75 High Point (Big South, 27-4) and #101 Hawaii (Big West, 22-8). Two HBCUs follow: Howard (MEAC, 19-10) is at #203, and Tennessee State (Ohio Valley, 20-9) came in at #308. Two of my other conference tourney picks won conference tournaments, but I did include them in my picks for this week (one team with regret), the WAC’s 25-8 California Baptist (#98 NET). The NEC’s 17-15 Long Island University (#198 NET) is the other. (All 365 NET rankings here.)
True to form, the two 12-seeds, McNeese and High Point, are the best of the five. But, as always with Lower Mid-Majors, even the survivors of conference tourney week have a huge climb to win first-round games.
FIRST FOUR: No. 16 UMBC (-2.5) vs. No. 16 Howard Tuesday, 6:40 pm, truTV: This is the best UMBC team since the historic 2018 upset of Virginia (a #16-seed beating a #1-seed). That said, this may be the best Howard team in history–at least by number of wins (23). The Bison will go as far as senior guard Bryce Harris takes them (17 PPG/7 RPG). It’s literally a pick ’em game, a game that’s also for local bragging rights (two schools are less than 35 miles apart). My head says UMBC, but my heart says Howard. Heart wins the nod … Howard to win outright, but I know this one will likely go either way.
SOUTH REGION: No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5) vs. No. 12 McNeese Thursday, 3:15 pm, truTV: No question, Vandy is on an upswing athletically in the always tough SEC, both in football and basketball. Ok. We know that. But most fans don’t know this: McNeese’s freshman guard, Larry Johnson, is a player to watch. He leads the Cowboys in scoring (18 PPG) and rebounding (6 RPG), and is a 50% shooter. I’ll take McNeese to keep Vandy from covering, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cowboys eke out a win.
WEST REGION:
No. 5 Wisconsin (-11.5) vs. No. 12 High Point Thursday, 1:50 pm, TBS: Wisconsin always seems to be full of surprises, like beating Michigan in Ann Arbor and slamming Michigan State at home. I thought UW had beaten UM again in the tournament semi-final, but a last-second shot by Yaxel Lendeborg proved otherwise. Now, the Badgers go up against an HPU team that has become (for good reasons) one of this week’s trendy picks. Terry Anderson is very much like McNeese’s Larry Johnson — a combo guard who can score (16 PPG) and rebound (6 RPG), and he makes nearly 60% of his shots. If there is a lower mid-major destined to advance this week, I think the Panthers have to be on that list. I’ll take HPU to keep the Badgers from covering, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers eke out a win.
No. 4 Arkansas (-15.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii Thursday, 4:25 pm, TBS: I’m not an Arkansas fan (Lordy, no), and John Calipari has too much dirt under his fingernails historically for my taste (e.g., UMass and Memphis). That said, I don’t think the Rainbow Warriors can keep pace with an SEC team. Darius Acuff should have a field day. The freshman from Detroit is one of the best players in the country, freshman or otherwise, averaging 23 PPG and 7 APG. (How did Acuff get away from May and Izzo? I don’t want to know.) I see the Razorbacks winning by more than 20.
MIDWEST REGION: No. 2 Iowa State (-23.5) vs. No. 15 Tennessee State Friday, 2:50 pm, CBS: Heart loves TSU and its Duke-bred head coach Nolan Smith, but ISU is simply too deep and strong for the Tigers to handle. Plus, I’m an ISU alum. Heck, if not for Arizona sinking a “you can’t possibly make this shot” buzzer-beater, I think the Cyclones would have beaten the Wildcats in the Big 12 tournament. But the big news coming out of Kansas City was that the f—ing stupid tournament floor. (Of all the problems facing college sports, the Big 12 Commissioner decided to focus on installing an LED floor for the conference tournament, and then had to replace it mid-tournament because players were slipping and sliding. Geeez!)Back to this game…. Maybe, just maybe, if the gods are smiling, TSC may lose by fewer than 24 points. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
That’s it for ’25-26. God willing, if I have my LED office floor installed by next season, I’ll be back for an 11th year in ’26-27. (I promise to do better.)
