The opening Masters 1000 event of 2026 is here, with the first round of Indian Wells underway on Tuesday. Here’s how I handicap the men’s singles field.
Will Alcaraz Continue His Blistering Form? Given his performances so far this year, world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz has made it very difficult to look past him in California. The Spaniard comes into this tournament at +150 after completing the career Grand Slam at the Australian Open in January, and more recently cruising to glory in Qatar. Although he was toppled by eventual winner Jack Draper in the 2025 semi-final, Alcaraz has enjoyed previous success at Indian Wells, securing consecutive titles in 2023 and 2024.
Sinner at Wimbledon 2025 (photo courtesy Forbes)
Sinner’s Time to Clinch a First Title in 2026? Despite murmurings that his slow start to the new season may be down to him working on making his game more unpredictable, it was somewhat of a surprise to see Jannik Sinner bow out in the semi-finals in Melbourne. Since then, Jakub Mensik upset the Italian across three sets at the quarter-final stage of the Qatar Open. While the Italian failed to win a third successive Australian Open and underperformed in Qatar, it seems like a matter of time before he gets back to his best, and he is also priced at +150. The four-time Grand Slam champion has never reached the final at Indian Wells; it feels like this could be his year to not only make it to the final but also become champion.
The Chasing Pack World No. 3 Novak Djokovic (+1300) is set to feature for the first time since an incredible run to the Australian Open final, and has an impressive record at this event, with five titles to his name. Age may not be on the Serbian’s side, but his short break from the game and the best-of-three set format could work in his advantage here. Daniil Medvedev (+2200) seems to be recovering some of the form he showed a few years ago, form that won him the 2021 US Open and propelled him to world No. 1. He already has two titles (Brisbane and Dubai) to his name this year, and is on the hunt for more glory.
Alexander Zverev (+2800) cannot be counted out. While Grand Slam success has always eluded him, his seven Masters 1000 triumphs will give him confidence in winning Indian Wells for the first time. Having experienced victory at the 2025 Canada Open, home favourite Ben Shelton (+2800) will be looking to add a second Masters to his resume.
Many were rightly stunned to see Alex de Minaur derailed by qualifier Patrick Kypson in Mexico, but the Australian can consider himself unlucky after dominating the first set before narrowly falling short in the proceeding two after consecutive tie-breaks. Looking to put that setback behind him, de Minaur (+4000) should take confidence from his heroics in Rotterdam a week or so prior as he aims for a maiden Masters 1000 title.
Defending champion Draper (+6500) has made a recent return, but it would take a remarkable effort for him to defend his throne after being sidelined for so long with an arm injury.
Lorenzo Musetti (+8000) will feel like he has a point to prove. Despite Djokovic deserving huge amounts of credit for his valiant efforts in Melbourne, he very well could’ve crashed out in the quarter-final had Musetti not been forced to retire. The 2024 Olympic bronze medalist returns for the first time since his devastating exit on Rod Laver Arena, seeking a first Masters win after falling short to Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo final last year.
Prediction: Alcaraz has made it very difficult to bet against him, and the Spaniard goes into Indian Wells as the joint favourite for good reason. If Alcaraz falls short, Sinner is the most likely to flourish in the Californian heat. DraftKings has Alcaraz/Sinner at -475 for those looking for a safer option. However, surprises can happen at this tournament, as Draper demonstrated a year ago. If you’re confident of an unexpected victor but don’t know who to back, DraftKings has priced a winner from the rest of the field at +300.
*Odds Subject to Change
