David beats Goliath! The prospect draws eyeballs year after year, and the Davids of college basketball have delivered. Examples include Florida Gulf Coast (“Dunk City”), Saint Peter’s, and the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. Will lightning strike in ’26?
Before I identify what I see as possibilities, let’s take a minute to get a handle on the collegiate basketball landscape. The feeder system to March Madness includes teams from thirty-one conferences.
N=5 conferences are HIGH MAJORS, the so-called Power Conferences, which include the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Southeastern, and Atlantic Coast Conferences.
N=6 are conferences I categorize as HIGH MID-MAJORS. They include teams from the Atlantic 10 (e.g., Virginia Commonwealth), American (e.g., Memphis), Conference USA (e.g., Western Kentucky), Mid-American (e.g., Miami of Ohio), Mountain West (e.g., Utah State), and Sun Belt (e.g., James Madison).
N=1 conference, the West Coast Conference, is what I evaluated as “a tweener” conference. The WCC includes three major teams, Gonzaga, Oregon State, and Washington State; one high mid-major school, St. Mary’s; and other conference members that range from high to middle-range mid-majors (e.g., San Francisco, Seattle).
I do not include any teams from those 12 conferences in my scan.
Nineteen conferences constitute the group of Mid-Majors of primary interest to me–what I consider as LOWER MID-MAJORS. They include the Atlantic Sun (e.g., Florida Gulf Coast), American East (e.g., Vermont), Big Sky (e.g., Portland State), Big South (e.g., Winthrop), Big West (e.g., UC San Diego), Coastal (e.g., UNC Wilmington), Horizon (e.g., Northern Kentucky), Ivy (e.g., Princeton), MAAC (e.g., Saint Peter’s), MEAC (e.g., Morgan State), Missouri Valley (e.g., Murray State), NEC (e.g., Central Connecticut), Ohio Valley (e.g., Morehead State), Patriot (e.g., Colgate), SWAC (e.g., Jackson State), Southern (e.g., UNC Greensboro), Southland (e.g., McNeese State), Summit (e.g., South Dakota State), and WAC (e.g., California Baptist).
NOTE: Because there’s always movement in college athletics, I’m getting increasingly queasy about listing the Missouri Valley Conference as a lower mid-major. Odds are this will be the last season I’ll do that.
The Low Mid-Majors are (without question) “True Davids” of college basketball because they represent the longest of long shots in March.
Each year, I follow the Lower Mid-Majors, looking at how they fare against major competition during the pre-conference season, how they perform in conference play, and sizing up team prospects for conference postseason success. What I’m looking for are teams that can win their conference tournaments (thus qualifying for March Madness) and then win at least one game in the national tournament.)
Which conference and teams rose to the top this year?
Here’s my pre-conference tournament list.
BIG SOUTH: High Point and Winthrop
BIG WEST: Hawaii and the University of California, San Diego
COASTAL: University of North Carolina, Wilmington, and College of Charleston
IVY: Yale
MAAC: Merrimack and Saint Peter’s
MEAC: Howard
MISSOURI VALLEY: Belmont
NEC: Long Island
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State
PATRIOT: Navy
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin and McNeese State
WAC: Utah Valley and California Baptist.
How do those teams rank in the NCAA’s NET ranking system (of all 365 major teams as of March 1)? From top to bottom …
#50-100: #55 Belmont; #60 McNeese, #66 Yale; #76 High Point; #82 Utah Valley; #85 SFA; #93, UNCW
#101-150: #103 Hawaii; #111 California Baptist; #120 UC San Diego; #127 Navy; #129 Winthrop; #145 College of Charleston
#151-200: #185 Merrimack; #191 Tennessee State; #195 Long Island
Higher than 201: #202 Howard; #225 Saint Peter’s.
Who has the best chance among those teams to be the next Saint Peter’s? My top five are Belmont, McNeese, Yale, High Point, and UNCW. Contenders are Winthrop and Hawaii. I also like two HBCU teams, Howard and Tennessee State, coached by “Blue Bloods” (former Duke players), Kenny Blakeney (Howard) and Nolan Smith (TSU).
Teams I left out that rank well in the NCAA NET include the University of Northern Iowa (#81), Illinois State (#90), Hofstra (#92), Murray State #101, Saint Thomas (#106), Bradley (#112), Southern Illinois (#113), and the University of Illinois, Chicago (#116). You’ll see that the Missouri Valley is well represented on that list.
I’ll be back after the conference tournaments to take stock of the landscape and analyze how my picks performed.
