It’s a conclusion based on research about base running techniques.
Ever since the Toronto Blue Jays’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa was thrown out at home in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series with the score tied at 4-4, a firestorm of discussion about the play has erupted.
With one out, the bases loaded, and the Dodgers’ infield playing in, Daulton Varsho hit a ground ball to second. Second baseman Miguel Rojas fielded the ball cleanly but slipped, almost falling backward before firing a hard, accurate throw to home plate to nip Kiner-Falefa by inches.
Some fans were incensed that Kiner-Falefa took such a short initial lead and short secondary lead, pointing out that he would have been safe had he taken a bigger lead. Kiner-Falefa explained that he was following the direction of his coaches:
Isiah Kiner Falefa: They told us to stay close to the base. They don’t want us to get doubled off in that situation with a hard line drive. Varsho hits the ball really, really hard. (Muncy’s) right there, I’m waiting for a backpick from Will Smith in that situation. I can’t get doubled off right there…. They wanted a smaller lead and a smaller secondary, so that’s what I did. It was obviously a tough play. They got it done. The lead is small. In that situation, you can’t get doubled off. I got the best secondary I could from that spot, and it didn’t work out.
Those seem like valid points, though some pointed out that the batter, Daulton Varsho, had not lined out to the left side of the infield the entire 2025 season. But the threat of a pickoff from Dodgers catcher Will Smith was undoubtedly real, especially since Varsho bats from the left side, giving Smith a clear throw to third base.
Former Blue Jay Whit Merrifield, who led the American League in stolen bases three times and knows a bit about baserunning, defended Kiner-Falefa: “He did exactly right here,” Merrifield wrote on X. “The #1 rule with bases loaded and less than two outs is you cannot get doubled up on a line drive to 3rd baseman. So your lead is as far as the 3rd baseman is from the bag. He did this perfectly.”
Another former Blue Jay, Chris Colabello, defended Kiner-Falefa more fervently, posting on X: “The amount of scrutiny on the Isiah Kiner-Falefa lead/secondary is so out of control. The takes I’m reading—about ‘distance from the base’ and ‘secondary lead distance measured to the inch’ are absolutely bonkers. If Rojas doesn’t slip, he throws him out by 14 feet, regardless of how good his lead and secondary were. The risk/reward of being further off the base is so distorted that it would have been egregious even to consider risking being even an inch further away from the bag. As a matter of fact, I may have told whoever was on third to be no more than a step off the bag.”
“I’m willing to bet that 99% of baserunners on third in that moment are having ZERO consideration of scoring on a ball that is fielded cleanly by an infielder. The fact that the play was even remotely close is so incredibly misleading. . . . The wild part about all of this is that every player and former player that I have seen comment on it has absolutely no qualms with IKF’s lead and/or secondary.”
Courtesy FOX TV and Facebook
But since Rojas did slip, making the play at home incredibly close, there is one factor that nobody I have read or heard has mentioned. If Kiner-Falefa had sped through home plate standing instead of sliding, he almost certainly would have been safe. Since there was a force play at home, there was no need to slide.
In a scientific study published in 2015 in the Journal of Sport and Health Science titled “A Comparison of Base Running and Sliding Techniques in Collegiate Baseball with Implications for Sliding into First Base,” three researchers concluded: “the quickest way to the base is by running through it, followed by head-first, feet-first, and running to a stop.” They added, “In situations where reaching first base as fast as possible is the objective, coaches should instruct players to remain upright and run through the base when possible.”
This would be just as true for home plate as for first base. It is also true for second base, in a ploy that major league teams have begun to employ.
This latest baserunning strategy can be executed with two outs and runners on first and third or with the bases loaded, and a ground ball to the infield. How? Have the runner on first run standing up into second base and continue past the bag. Why? A runner can reach second base faster standing up than sliding. If he beats the throw, he then wanders well past second base. If the runner from third crosses the plate before the infielders can tag out the other runner, the run counts because the force play has been removed.
So if Kiner-Falefa had zoomed past home plate standing up, he almost certainly would have beaten the throw home, especially since catcher Will Smith’s foot came off home plate before he quickly stepped back onto the plate. And Smith was not blocking the plate, so there was nothing to prevent Kiner-Falefa from running through home plate standing up. The only reason a player would slide in that situation is if he were trying to upend the catcher and prevent him from throwing to first base for a double play. But there was no chance of Smith nailing Varsho at first. Smith didn’t even attempt to throw to first.
So with all the what-ifs being thrown around after an outstanding World Series, here’s mine: What if Kiner-Falefa had run through home plate standing up? My conclusion: the Blue Jays would be hoisting the World Series flag for the first time since 1993.
Great point Matt